Delist the lot and start all over again.
I think the decision around this is the biggest one facing the club, and hugely critical to get right. HAP wrote we're already in a rebuild, as evidenced by the new youth policy. I disagree - I think its writing off 2015, not necessarily rebuilding. Its similar to 2006, we went crap so long that Sheedy tanked for a priority pick right at the end, but he still aimed for finals in 2007. That wasn't a rebuild. And even if we lose 8-9 players this year, its not really a rebuild, its list tinkering.A rebuild is accepting that wins in 2016, and maybe 2017, don’t matter beyond the development benefits they bring. It will be calling time on either careers or playing time for guys who can still justify best 22 positions. It will be playing guys from day 1 who don’t necessarily “deserve” a spot. It is managing the salary cap for who we can poach in 2017/2018 via FA. It is saying that 2016 and probably 2017 only matter for how they can help us win a flag in 2019 => 2021.
Getting rid of 6-8 players who have hardly contributed this year is list tinkering.
Now, do we need a full rebuild?
That is such a critical question. And there is no doubt in my mind that the SAGA makes it more difficult. It makes judging players harder. You compare Jobe, Hibberd, Dempsey, others versus their 2013 versions. There is a huge step down. Can they re-capture that form when WADA free? If they can step back up, we keep Carlisle/Belly and get them injury-free, get back Myers & Hocking, are we then a chance? Because if so, maybe we just tinker around the edges and retire Fletch/Winders/Chappy/Pears and delist a couple of Kav, Dalgiesh, Browne, Hams, Stein and NOB. None big contributors to 2015, so the core team stays together + a (hopefully) good youth(s) + maybe another FA. Roll the dice on one last go.
The risk is of course that if you do that, you’re playing your best 22 in 2016. So Cooney, Stanton, Howlett, Myers, Hocking, Watson, Dempsey, Melksham all get to go first unless a youngster pushes them out of the team. Because most of them even if lower ceilings will be better over four quarters in 2016. So we’re back to 2015 first-half-year levels of development. And we either make it or we bust.
Or we call time, and do a deep cull. Try and trade 2 of Stanton, Watson, Cooney, Goddard, Bags to teams they are happy with, trying to get 2nd rounders (or let go as FA). Decide if any of Carlisle/Hooker/Hurley can be our #2 KP forward, and if not trade one out. Anyone fringe who is not going to be there in 4 years or make a marked difference to the side is traded. So Howlett, Dempsey, and maybe Myers and Melksham could all go, again for 2nd to 3rd round picks. Use the salary cap to increase the value of players leaving. Let Belly go on the basis you can trade for a ruck when you’re back in the window (unless you think he’s under priced). Recognise you’ll be getting a group of draftees late who will most likely be cut in 2017. Recognise we’ll almost certainly be bottom 4 in 2016, maybe 2017.
I’m not sure where I stand. At the start of the year I thought this was a top 4 list. The gap from there to a major rebuild is big. But we always knew our list demographics could create a cliff - get it before X or give it away. And maybe our list demographics have now caught up to us. I was counting on good contributions from Fletch, Watson, Chapman, Cooney as well as Belly, Giles, Myers and Hocking. A lot of those guys are proving too old or injury prone. So maybe it all needs to be re-evaluated, and we do the big cut.
I agree with all of this except the top 4 bit.
I felt we had a top 6-8 list at the start of the season, I thought that Hawks, Sydney, Freo were definitely ahead of us, that Port and North were marginally ahead of us, and that we were on the next tier with Richmond and Geelong. That was heavily reliant on Bellchambers stepping straight back into 2013 form and at least 5-6 players showing incremental improvement. WADA probably knocked the wind out of our sails to an extent but we have some glaring holes now that we didn’t have last year.
The challenge is, as you say, playing the kids vs playing the best 22.
If Hird goes in uncontracted you can almost guarantee we’ll be playing the best 22. He has to, for the sake of his career and his coaching legacy. If you’re going to rebuild you have to either sack him or extend his contract for at least three years, otherwise the temptation will be to play the Cooneys, the Howletts, the Hockings, etc. Therefore, deciding whether we are in rebuild / renovate mode is absolutely critical, as is (as you say) making the right call.
Big Time Rebuild Required.
ASAP.
Could easily turn over 15-20 from our current list over next 2 off-seasons.
No rebuild, we just need to change our players for better ones!
Do people think Watson, Hibberd, Dempsey, Bellchambers, Melksham, Hocking and Myers will re-capture 2013 form? Back then we had a pretty dominant midfield and fantastic fast accurate disposal. Will Laverge, Langford, McKenna or others step up really quickly and contribute.
Of course, since 2013 we’ve (effectively) lost Ryder, Crameri, Davey, Fletch and Winders. But gained Zerrett, JD, Colyer, Cooney, and McKernan. Was 2013 a one-off or can we get back there?
Also had Kommer, Myers, Zaha and Hocking out this year, possibly back next year.
Spine is young and promising. Only Hooker is over 25 I think. Now is the time to be drafting young mids to replace Watson Stanton Goddard etc. Complete rebuild? No. Renovate? Yep.
Agree.
No rebuild, we just need to change our players for better ones!Or our current players just need to "be better"
Or we could just clone Hirdy…
Kyle Hardingham is in good form.
Just sayin’…
The more important factor is when the saga finishes. If it finishes this year, we don’t rebuild, we top up with some mature, gun free agent.
If it does not finish end of the year, yes we rebuild as the core group won’t be switched on for a crack.
Legit if when the tribunal cleared us and that was that we would be around the 8 right now (although the injuries have been pretty high) and we’d be talking about Top 4 in 2016
Go to the draft and get the best possible players. If anyone wants to leave then look for draft picks to compensate. I understand this may be a shallow draft but the draft applies to the whole competition and no doubt we have the facilities to develop raw talent. Move on at least 8 players possibly as many as 12. Next season will be about building a game plan for 2017 onwards. I’m calling that a rebuild.
I think the decision around this is the biggest one facing the club, and hugely critical to get right. HAP wrote we're already in a rebuild, as evidenced by the new youth policy. I disagree - I think its writing off 2015, not necessarily rebuilding. Its similar to 2006, we went crap so long that Sheedy tanked for a priority pick right at the end, but he still aimed for finals in 2007. That wasn't a rebuild. And even if we lose 8-9 players this year, its not really a rebuild, its list tinkering.If you don't classify what we did end of 2006 as a rebuild then I don't know what you do classify as one. We tanked for half the year, ploughed games into young blokes (Laycock Johns Kep Dyson Winders et al), cut a bunch of old blokes, traded one or two out, and took a bunch of picks. How does that differ from a rebuild exactly?
And (if 9 players is tinkering) what would you classify as a rebuild?
10 main list changes?
We will have a big cut this year and another one next year. The draft sanctions have delayed the cuts as we didn’t have the picks available to turn over the list. Without sanctions there would have been 4-5 extra changes over the past few years. Now we have to catch up with these missed cuts on top of the changes we’d do anyway.
Problem is you can only find so much talent each year. Say we need to find 3 x 100 game players each year out of 7 picks. That’s a very optimistic success rate and still leaves 8 failed picks in the next two years. More you take, the higher the risk and the less chance of finding an afl standard player.
But that’s all Dodoro’s problem. My job is just to ■■■■■ about it on a forum.
Do people think Watson, Hibberd, Dempsey, Bellchambers, Melksham, Hocking and Myers will re-capture 2013 form? Back then we had a pretty dominant midfield and fantastic fast accurate disposal. Will Laverge, Langford, McKenna or others step up really quickly and contribute.Of course, since 2013 we’ve (effectively) lost Ryder, Crameri, Davey, Fletch and Winders. But gained Zerrett, JD, Colyer, Cooney, and McKernan. Was 2013 a one-off or can we get back there?
Also had Kommer, Myers, Zaha and Hocking out this year, possibly back next year.
No reason Zaha/Myers/Hocking/Bellcho/Hibberd can’t.
I actually thought that Watson was in pretty serious decline before the club explained that his shoulder had been shot all year… Couldn’t understand how the best handballer in the comp suddenly became one of the worst.
I actually thought that Watson was in pretty serious decline before the club explained that his shoulder had been shot all year.. Couldn't understand how the best handballer in the comp suddenly became one of the worst.
He didn’t come back right last year. I’d never before seen jobe fumble and miss targets as much as he did in the elimination final last year.
I actually thought that Watson was in pretty serious decline before the club explained that his shoulder had been shot all year.. Couldn't understand how the best handballer in the comp suddenly became one of the worst.He didn’t come back right last year. I’d never before seen jobe fumble and miss targets as much as he did in the elimination final last year.
Yeah you said you reckon that weird injury from last year was still giving him trouble this year… I agree. Tough man to go as hard at the contest as he did this year if he wasn’t 100%.
I think the decision around this is the biggest one facing the club, and hugely critical to get right. HAP wrote we're already in a rebuild, as evidenced by the new youth policy. I disagree - I think its writing off 2015, not necessarily rebuilding. Its similar to 2006, we went crap so long that Sheedy tanked for a priority pick right at the end, but he still aimed for finals in 2007. That wasn't a rebuild. And even if we lose 8-9 players this year, its not really a rebuild, its list tinkering.If you don't classify what we did end of 2006 as a rebuild then I don't know what you do classify as one. We tanked for half the year, ploughed games into young blokes (Laycock Johns Kep Dyson Winders et al), cut a bunch of old blokes, traded one or two out, and took a bunch of picks. How does that differ from a rebuild exactly?And (if 9 players is tinkering) what would you classify as a rebuild?
10 main list changes?
There is no such thing as tanking… Vlad told me so.
Yes I believe we need a rebuild. We missed our opportunity, we need to call it, face it and build a team that can challenge in 2019. That gives us 4 drafts and trading periods to build on the talent we have.
Below is what the bones of a list could like in 2019.
Gleeson (25) Hurley (29) ???
??? Carlisle (28) hibberd (29)
Colyer (28) Myers (30) ???
Edwards (26) Hooker (31) Zaharakis (29)
J.Merrett (26) Daniher (25) ???
??? Heppel (27) Z.Merrett (24)
Maybe
OBrien (26) Fantasia (24) Long (23), Bellchambers (30) Mckernon (29) Mckenna (23) Bagley (32) Melksham (28) Browne (27) Ambrose (28) Kommer (29) Langford (23) Laverde (23) Ashby (25)
Unlikely
Hams (25), Stanton (33), Goddard (33), Steinberg (27), Howlett (31), Dalgiesh (26), Kavanagh (26), Dempsey (32)
Gone
Pears, Giles, Watson, Chapman, Cooney, Fletcher, Winderlich, Gwilt (33), Hocking (32)
We will not be able to attract talented mid age free agents until the WADA fiasco is done, so this year we hit the draft hard. Then we have 3 trading windows to augment the talent above. It’s doable.
Zerrett (19), Carlisle (23), Hooker (26), Daniher (21), Heppell (23), Colyer (24) and Hurls (25) are all star quality who we can build a team around.Developing players like Edwards, Langford, Laverde and Gleeson will be a part of it.
Others like Fantasia, Jerrett, Hamms, Dalgliesh and maybe a couple of other young players are worth putting time into.
Apart from that you’d keep a handful of other experience players like Myers (26), Hocking (27), Hibbo (25), Watson, Goddard, Zaka, Stants and Baggs for transition and leadership but the rest are fair game to be culled as soon as we find/develop younger upgrades.
There are seriously some players who’ve had time and wouldn’t be missed if they were moved on for a younger kid. We should look to turnover more that usual IMO.
This. Absolutely spot on.
All about getting quality midfielders onto our list. The future of our spine looks solid but Heppell and Zac Merrett as the nucleus of our midfield set up are going to need some more help. Myers will help with grunt work as may a few others but we do need more depth of quality in this area to build a team for a genuine crack.