We obviously need to improve our forward line (which I think will probably entail biting the bullet at some point and actually drafting forwards) but I think we have improved on the field. Whether our list overall is better, I'd say it's probably not, but with the number of our depth players who have been injured most of the year it's hard to say for sure.
We're still inconsistent but when we lapse we don't give up huge scores like we used to, and to me that's a big improvement. Number of 100+ scores we've conceded over the last 7 years:
2008 - 17
2009 - 11
2010 - 14
2011 - 12
2012 - 10
2013 - 7
2014 - 2
Whether it's mental or fitness based, we're playing mostly AFL standard football at the end of the season which we haven't done for years, and we finished top four in points against with 81.09. That's the first time we've averaged under 90 per game since 2003.
I don't think it means we're about to win the flag or anything like that, but we're a legitimately good defensive team now. That's a nice change.
We obviously need to improve our forward line (which I think will probably entail biting the bullet at some point and actually drafting forwards) but I think we have improved on the field. Whether our list overall is better, I'd say it's probably not, but with the number of our depth players who have been injured most of the year it's hard to say for sure.
We're still inconsistent but when we lapse we don't give up huge scores like we used to, and to me that's a big improvement. Number of 100+ scores we've conceded over the last 7 years:
2008 - 17
2009 - 11
2010 - 14
2011 - 12
2012 - 10
2013 - 7
2014 - 2
Whether it's mental or fitness based, we're playing mostly AFL standard football at the end of the season which we haven't done for years, and we finished top four in points against with 81.09. That's the first time we've averaged under 90 per game since 2003.
I don't think it means we're about to win the flag or anything like that, but we're a legitimately good defensive team now. That's a nice change.
I think the above is really a strong indication of improvement. Generally the premiers each year are one of the strongest defensive teams. I think every premier over the last 20-30 years has always been ranked in the top 4 which suggests that we are there or thereabouts. I think the forward line will sort itself out as Joe starts playing more like a man. We saw yesterday in the second qtr what he can do. I think it was Bassett that said post match for that qtr Joe played like a man. A other pre season and more body strength plus Carlisle being more settled and I think we will be well placed. We have a great spine, a great ruck and some pretty good midfielders as well. We need the ASADA crap to go away recruit one or two small forwards and a couple of talls and the list will be pretty good shape. A really good flanker/forward pocket is critical I think.
We can now finally see how our backline is going to function post Fletcher. Only 1/2 years ago, if Fletcher was ruled out of a final we would all be having kittens. This year, its barely registered a blip (despite his good form). Baguley is a very good player, Hibberd is on the cusp of AA, Hooker will be AA, Hurley's had his best year for the club, and even Dempsey is playing consistent footy.
For the first time in years, our midfield has real depth. We won the majority of our games to make the finals without Watson, which says a lot. Heppell's going to win the Brownlow next year. Myers has had his best season. Goddard playing consistent footy, Zaharakis has had his best season IMO (even better than his B&F year in my view). Hocking is winning his own footy, Colyer's been a revelation. Ryder will be very close to AA ruckman.
Even our forward line is coming together. Couldn't have asked for anything better from Daniher in his second year, Carlisle has ripped a few games apart in his first season forward, Zac Merrett is going to be a gun, Chapman's got one more premiership assault left in him. If Kommer comes back successfully next year as our defensive forward and Ambrose continues to develop as the third big body, we're probably only one decent forward short (this is what we should focus on in the trade period, I'd love to make a really good offer to get a bloke like Devon Smith from GWS).
Last years early wins were fools gold. This year we haven't won as many but I finally see the plan starting to take shape.
I think there is a better foundation to build on than there was last year and the rock that our defence has become is something to behold. However, the problems in our forward line and the skittish manner we play are serious problems.
Much better defence overall, midfield is still hot and cold, forward line a complete debacle for the talent thats down there. Shots on goal that are kickable are misses, no one at ground level when needed, and players trying to pass off the ball when within range.
I know the lapses and inconsistencies this year feel the same as we remember the last few years being, but here's an ugly reminder of just how badly our seasons ended.
2010 last 6 weeks was 4 losses, including a 76 point loss to Carlton and a 98 point loss to Collingwood.
2011 last 6 weeks was 3 losses, all bad, 74 points to Carlton, 74 points to Collingwood, 57 points to West Coast, and then rounded it out with a 62 point loss in the elimination final
2012 last 6 weeks was 6 losses, including 94 points to Hawthorn, 96 points to Carlton, and 45 points to Richmond.
2013 last 6 weeks was 5 losses, including 56 points to Hawthorn, 53 to West Coast, 45 to North, 39 to Richmond, 79 to Collingwood. We conceded 133 points to the Pies in that game. We conceded 122 points to Collingwood this year in both games combined.
2014 last 6 weeks was 2 losses, by 22 and 18 points.
The number of wins may not have changed a lot, but our overall consistency has improved markedly.
It appears that the fitness level has improved. I say appears. Because after round 16 there was a meltdown and a run of 5 or so losses that were widely attributed to the saga. In that respect we have improved. In terms of ladder position, if we had won say, 3 out of those 5 we would have been a top 2 side
2014: If we had beaten Melbourne and St Kilda, we would be top 4
What has happened is the teams are performing about the same over all but the emphasis has changed
2014 a better defence weaker attack
2013 a better attack, weaker defence.
Result same.
In a nutshell, Loss of Crameri and Bellchambers was only just balanced by incremental improvements of Heppel, Myers and covered by the fantastic year that Paddy Ryder put together rucking almost single handed.
Summary for the 2 coaches:
Bomber a better defensive coach. Bomber wants to get defence right as the foundation
Hird a better forward coach. Hirdy concentrates on attack, which is where he played all his career.
IMO, contracts willing, permitting Bomber should stay on as senior assistant coach/ defence/ player development.
Or kick Neil Craig out and give the job to bomber.
I don't think that there is really any evidence that Bomber is a more defensive minded coach. Hird publicly stated when he took the job that defense was the area that needed the most work and it was the the most notable change when he took over. I think a more accurate assessment would be that the backline and team defense have continued their ongoing improvement under Bomber.
The issue is the forward line area of the ground.
Players for some reason don't seem to have the focus and confidence to back themselves in front of goal consistently..
Forward lines of the best teams have players of huge confidence up forward. They know they're good already.
This is the area the club really needs to lift in.
The search for a replacement for 'Finding Nino' is done.
You have earnt the coveted title of CAPTAIN OBVIOUS
It appears that the fitness level has improved. I say appears. Because after round 16 there was a meltdown and a run of 5 or so losses that were widely attributed to the saga. In that respect we have improved. In terms of ladder position, if we had won say, 3 out of those 5 we would have been a top 2 side
2014: If we had beaten Melbourne and St Kilda, we would be top 4
What has happened is the teams are performing about the same over all but the emphasis has changed
2014 a better defence weaker attack
2013 a better attack, weaker defence.
Result same.
In a nutshell, Loss of Crameri and Bellchambers was only just balanced by incremental improvements of Heppel, Myers and covered by the fantastic year that Paddy Ryder put together rucking almost single handed.
Summary for the 2 coaches:
Bomber a better defensive coach. Bomber wants to get defence right as the foundation
Hird a better forward coach. Hirdy concentrates on attack, which is where he played all his career.
IMO, contracts willing, permitting Bomber should stay on as senior assistant coach/ defence/ player development.
Or kick Neil Craig out and give the job to bomber.
I don't think that there is really any evidence that Bomber is a more defensive minded coach. Hird publicly stated when he took the job that defense was the area that needed the most work and it was the the most notable change when he took over. I think a more accurate assessment would be that the backline and team defense have continued their ongoing improvement under Bomber.
Maybe you are right.
Lets put it this way, at the beginning of the year the forward line had been gutted over successive years through injuries (Loss of Bellcho for almost all of 2013 was a disaster), transfers and almost total reconstruction was needed in 2013. How did it get to that stage? Do you "blame" Bomber, does the forward line schmozzle of 2013 tarnish Bombers credentials at all? Yes it does, to some extent. Would Hirdy have done better? We will never know.
I think there is a better foundation to build on than there was last year and the rock that our defence has become is something to behold. However, the problems in our forward line and the skittish manner we play are serious problems.
I thought before a finals, it is the right time to discuss the teams improvement or otherwise.
In 2013, we won more games and kicked more goals.
In 2014, our defence has less goals kicked against them, we introduced a number of first gamers with Zac Merrett, Ashby, Ambrose, Gleeson probably the standouts. Hepps had a good year and is knocking on the door of elite, Clunk, Paddy and Pig on the verge of All Australian, and Jobe, BJ and Stants all performed well. Myers has played well and still has improvement in him.
We expected more of Joe, but his potential is huge and most of us can see that next years will be huge for him. Hurley was much more consistent and Jake can play both ends, question is where are they best.
Zaka, Howlett, Melksham and Demps have not had great years. Though at times all haven't in great efforts.
IF we had of kept crameri I believe our forward line would have functioned better.
However Ambrose has been a find and a serviceable replacement.
Next year we will lose winderlich. and following year probably fletcher and CHapman.
Draft penalties hurt, if we could get them reversed and back in 2014 draft would be amazing and open up trading options to bring in what we need.
we really need to aim for a flag next year.
which means we must win a final this year, preferably two which will give our guys the required finals experience for next year.
I think we have improved, we are a bit more solid.
I guess certain catastrophes happen every season, so you can't just assume we were unlucky this year and everything will be fine next year.
This year we had:
- Bellchambers out for most of the year
- No Belly OR Ryder for about 3 games
- Watson out for 8 or so weeks
- Gastro affecting the club for a few weeks early in the season
- Investing 18(?) games into a defender to make him a fwd only for him to do a hammy a week out from finals.
But certain things see to be falling into place. Our mids are a bit more dependable, Ambrose/Daniher/Carlisle have now played about 15 games together, our defense looks great and the Hurley/Carlisle swing will be the stuff of legend.
Carlisle and Daniher have also had some rucking experience, and Zerret has played almost 20 games now.
I think when Bomber hands the keys to the team back to Hird, it will be like getting your car back from the mechanic and having all cylinders firing, new brakes and wheels balanced, and it's been detailed too.
Just on the fwd line, i think it is fair to say that while at first glance it hasn't improved on last year we have laid a great foundation for the years to come.
I don't think bomber ever intended JD to play to as one of our 2 key forwards this year. I think in a perfect world bomber would have played ryder and carlisle up there for the overwhelming majority of the year. While i think had he been able to do that we would be better placed now i'm sure in the long run this season will prove a fantastic foundation year for JD. Indeed it has probably accelerated his development.
as exciting as the idea of carlisle becoming a competition leading fwd is (and i was an advocate of the move) i think long term (when fletch eventually hangs em up) he will settle in defence with hurls and hooker and they will throw one of them fwd at times to create hell.
from the perspective of our small fwds/mids is has also been a very positive development year. Colyer has turned over a new leaf and looks like belongs out there on a week to week basis and Zmerret has obviously been an absolute revelation. His older brother also made good progress and i think fanta has shown a few very promising signs. there isn't much of him but he seems to move to the right spots and i loved the way he hits the front of the pack (hurls kicked the goal but fanta created the opportunity against GC).
i also think gleeson has great potential as a half fwd flanker in the breaust mold - just seems to ooze class and smarts. that said it wouldn't surprise if he went past dempsey next year down back because his ball use is a mile better.
2 less wins this year on the momentum of last year is dissapointing but not a disaster. We have looked more lost this year as far as game style especially in the forward half. Defense being the positive easily.
I still think for some reason the players respond to Hirds message really well and not so Bomber. Not sure why but you cant have a coach 22 games in a row say he doesnt understand why they are not getting his message of being consistent.
I have very high expectations next year but the asada stuff will have to go away by 2015 for us to be true contenders.
Richmond have won three less games than last year and they're the only team that made the finals.
It has been fun pointing out to the wrong coloured sash supporters how their "heroic" rise is hiding the fact that they've actually gone backwards this year. They finished 5th last year and are celebrating sneaking in to the finals, when they were touted as top 4 at the start of the year.
