Quoted PostIs edwards genuinely quick?Moves like a long lost Hill Brother without the tank.
Is that quick?
Quoted PostQuoted PostGoals will come fromDanniher
Carlisle
Chapman
Jobe resting forward
Winderlich
Colyer
Zerrett
Zaharakis
Goddard
Cooney
Occasional Heppell brilliance.And Myers and Demps long bombs… Always real team lifters that keeps the opposition accountable and on their toes.
Dont forget TBell. he is back. Better to rest him in the square than on the bench IMO
Yeah if Carlisle isn’t right to go in the first few games then Giles and TBell play. Giles pretty handy forward by all accounts as is TBell when firing. We have it fairly covered I reckon.
Carlisle & Daniher are gun footballers. A bit behind in development terms compared to the rest of our list - most have 100+ games experience in their roles and we are expecting The Jake & Joe Show to have the same output as them. On top of that, when the delivery is sh1thouse into the fwd line coupled with slow ball movement to get it there, what do we seriously expect from them?
If Kommer & Licka were fit they would’ve been in and different story. Still need a dedicated 40+ goal a year crumber to improve our efficiency of our fwd 50 entries.
I have to say I’m a fan of the potential our forward line has.
I think Joey and Jake will become a great pair, Ambrose gives so much and will develop and contribute more goals and Hurls, and bellchambers can be swung forward to create headaches.
Today I was extremely impressed with our small forwards.
Chappy is brilliant and I believe Zaka if left up forward could kick goals every week (not that I think he should). Colyer is a real threat and Benny Howlett just works and works. That’s not even including others that I believe can make an impact like Zerrett.
With other mids like Goddard, Stanton, hepps and Watson that can all kick a goal, I think we’ve for the cattle to do the job every week, we just need the consistency.
Forward line worked really really well. Lot of hard work, lot of short kick and mark stuff, and some (well-rewarded) patience with the lead up play. Jake C doing a lot more running. Learnt a little bit off Hawthorn after all these years.
Colyer and Cooney have made us a lot more dangerous on the fast break, especially since Zaha hasn’t found much of the ball forward of centre. Cooney’s vision and class superb.
Cooney out will hurt - but presents a nice little early challenge for the coaching group. Do they try and get Zaha into it more? Or someone like Laverde or Edwards??
We still don’t get enough scores Vs our inside forward entries - 57 entries for 25 scores - That’s about 44% - You have to aim for 50% - I guess currently be in the bottom 5 or 6 for converting inside forward 50 entries into scores.
joe D 80 goals +
We still don't get enough scores Vs our inside forward entries - 57 entries for 25 scores - That's about 44% - You have to aim for 50% - I guess currently be in the bottom 5 or 6 for converting inside forward 50 entries into scores.
That’s interesting because I reckon the AFL average is around the 40% mark?
Just checked http://afltables.com/afl/stats/2015s.html, says it’s 41% (If I read the right columns) but that’s the whole league. Interesting to see what the average is of the top 4 or so teams this season so far and what it was last season.
Fine, you made me check.
43% overall
Hawks - 46%
Swans - 42.5%
Port - 44.6%
Roos - 46.5%
Cats - 44%
Freo - 45%
So we are around that mark, though the figures above are over a whole season where as so far it’s based on one game (can’t imagine it was much better in the first two matches)
It also makes a difference on the type of scores. No good scoring 5 times every 10 entries when it is 1.4.10.
I think we are one big key forward short. Joey and Jake are tall but not what I’d call big, strong forwards like a Tom Hawkins who is a mountain of a man and is almost impossible to shift 1 v 1. Both can take high marks, but perhaps not quite the physical monster I’d like to see down there. I’ve been encouraged by Joe’s showings, 3 of his last 4 senior games he has kicked 3 or more goals, 4 in that final v North. Jake has presented better and given his limited prep has been very good all things considered. Whether forward is permanent or he will move to defence once Fletch hangs them up who knows. It is the one area on the need we need to fix up.
Schultz isn’t a man mountain, but is still one of the very best atm.
I think we are one big key forward short. Joey and Jake are tall but not what I'd call big, strong forwards like a Tom Hawkins who is a mountain of a man and is almost impossible to shift 1 v 1. Both can take high marks, but perhaps not quite the physical monster I'd like to see down there. I've been encouraged by Joe's showings, 3 of his last 4 senior games he has kicked 3 or more goals, 4 in that final v North. Jake has presented better and given his limited prep has been very good all things considered. Whether forward is permanent or he will move to defence once Fletch hangs them up who knows. It is the one area on the need we need to fix up.
Hawkins has been in the system 8 years now, a fair bit longer than both Joe and Jake and Jake has only been up forward for less than 12 months.
I think we are one big key forward short. Joey and Jake are tall but not what I'd call big, strong forwards like a Tom Hawkins who is a mountain of a man and is almost impossible to shift 1 v 1. Both can take high marks, but perhaps not quite the physical monster I'd like to see down there. I've been encouraged by Joe's showings, 3 of his last 4 senior games he has kicked 3 or more goals, 4 in that final v North. Jake has presented better and given his limited prep has been very good all things considered. Whether forward is permanent or he will move to defence once Fletch hangs them up who knows. It is the one area on the need we need to fix up.Hawkins has been in the system 8 years now, a fair bit longer than both Joe and Jake and Jake has only been up forward for less than 12 months.
In terms of physical attributes he is completely different. Even after 8 years in the AFL, both JD and Jake will not be that kind of build. It would be nice if we could get a brute of a forward, but they are probably the hardest players to come across…
Fine, you made me check.43% overall
Hawks - 46%
Swans - 42.5%
Port - 44.6%
Roos - 46.5%
Cats - 44%
Freo - 45%So we are around that mark, though the figures above are over a whole season where as so far it’s based on one game (can’t imagine it was much better in the first two matches)
It also makes a difference on the type of scores. No good scoring 5 times every 10 entries when it is 1.4.10.
where are these stats from? can’t find them on the above link.
regardless. worth noting that a) we have played last years 2 grand finalists b) we are giving up very few marks inside 50 despite a)
Fine, you made me check.43% overall
Hawks - 46%
Swans - 42.5%
Port - 44.6%
Roos - 46.5%
Cats - 44%
Freo - 45%So we are around that mark, though the figures above are over a whole season where as so far it’s based on one game (can’t imagine it was much better in the first two matches)
It also makes a difference on the type of scores. No good scoring 5 times every 10 entries when it is 1.4.10.
By my calculations.
Those right hand columns are “goals per inside 50” and “shots per inside 50” (although that includes rushed behinds but not shots that missed altogether, still it’s a reasonable approximation)
More pleasingly, week by week results for us, which agrees with my eye (that we improved a lot from rd 1 to 2 and kept that momentum going).
I’ve taken the liberty of including a little forward projection based on the data so far. This projection sees us getting a shot every inside 50 by round 10, a goal for every inside 50 by round 11, and about 8 and a half goals every time we get the ball inside 50 by the grand final.
At that point we can make a confident evaluation on whether or not Carlisle should play forward or back as we’ll have a lot more data on who’s kicking the goals.
Also note: we will end up kicking more goals than we have shots.
That said it’s a stupidly small sample size.
Fine, you made me check.43% overall
Hawks - 46%
Swans - 42.5%
Port - 44.6%
Roos - 46.5%
Cats - 44%
Freo - 45%So we are around that mark, though the figures above are over a whole season where as so far it’s based on one game (can’t imagine it was much better in the first two matches)
It also makes a difference on the type of scores. No good scoring 5 times every 10 entries when it is 1.4.10.
where are these stats from? can’t find them on the above link.
regardless. worth noting that a) we have played last years 2 grand finalists b) we are giving up very few marks inside 50 despite a)
I just did total goals and behinds divided by insife 50 (IF is the key on the table). I did it for 2014, that link was 2015 but you can click on 2014 stats at the top of the page.
Brilliant analysis HAP. I’ve tried to find a flaw but I’m pretty sure you nailed it.
awesome work HAP. you planing on keeping the spreadsheet up to date all year. Would love regular updates. On the link posted earlier you can also get stats for marks (for and against) inside 50. would you mind keeping tabs on that too while you’re at it 
while we are talking stats on the herald sun printed ladder does anyone know what 1-50 actually stands for?
just on improving our inside 50 efficiency i still don’t think we create enough opportunities from cumbs nor do we force stoppages. Against the blues if we didn’t mark it (which we did a lot) the ball came out.
i’ve only been to one game live so far but our defensive structure seems to be pushing to just outside 50 and across half way rather than right up tight looking to prevent the actual exist from our 50 or force stoppages.
Certainly it seems to be working for us ok at the moment but if we don’t mark the ball (like against the swans) i fear our scoring will dry up. i think we need to make a bit of a focus of having our smalls lead their men back to the inside 50 contest for crumbs. THat said all our smalls seem to be instructed to hit up to the ball and lead at every opportunity. IT actually worked very well on Saturday with howlett, zaha, BJ all presenting well inside 50. that certainly makes us unpredictable and hard for spare to defender to cover. the flip side is that if the opposition can put good pressure on our ball movement all that leading isolates our talls who then attract long bombs when outnumbered (like we saw against sydney).
personally i’d like to see a little more balance between the two styles of play and i what to see guys getting to the feet of JD and carlisle (cooney is actually a pretty big loss in this regard given his crumbing return against the swans).
it will be interesting to see how it evolves but for mine the system looks much much betters with multiple leading options being presented consistently to different areas. we seem much more focused on lowering our eyes as we go inside too. marked improvement.