I did the Everest base camp trek in 2016, brought my EFC scarf to the monument there.
Nepal is a wonderful place and the people, especially the Sherpas, are incredibly friendly. The entire trip remains one of my fondest memories, I recommend it to anyone with the means and ability.
12 October 2024
Recent developments across various global regions have sparked speculation about the possibility of what some analysts are calling a Limited World War III (L-WW3). Unlike full-scale wars of the past, the scenario outlined by experts suggests conflicts might erupt without the all-out destruction typically associated with global warfare.
According to Mathew Maavak, who delves deeply within this narrative, the potential for L-WW3 is driven by flashpoints, chokepoints, and high-value targets rather than massive military confrontations. Tensions worldwide are simmering, particularly between major powers, as regional conflicts, cyber warfare, and proxy battles could ignite rapidly.
One pressing flashpoint is the rising hostility between Israel and Iran. Tensions escalated significantly on October 1, 2024, when Iran launched nearly 200 hypersonic missiles at select Israeli targets. This dramatic action came as retaliation for what many described as the genocide occurring in Gaza, targeted assassinations of key Iranian military figures, and destabilizing attacks on groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
The situation is precarious; significant military responses are on hold, with Israeli officials taking their time to strategize and assess the support they might receive from the U.S. political scene, especially with the presidential elections approaching. They are wary of how incoming U.S. leadership could affect their military actions against Iran.
The conflict isn’t limited to the Middle East. Ukraine remains another hotspot ripe for escalation. With Russia likely to solidify its military objectives within Ukraine prior to the inauguration of the next U.S. President, analysts warn of the dangers posed by neglecting this front. If Russia captures significant territories like the Donbas region and the Odesa oblast, Ukraine could find itself entirely landlocked, drastically altering the regional power dynamics.
Countries like North Korea and China are anticipated to act cautiously, biding their time and avoiding significant engagement until they assess the developments stemming from the Middle Eastern situation. While North Korea may launch missiles provocatively over Japan, and China might pursue aggressive naval maneuvers, both nation-states seem unlikely to ignite immediate flashpoints of their own until the broader geopolitical picture becomes clearer.
Next, we have the current maritime chokepoints considered as pivotal locations likely to be central to any L-WW3. These key areas are integral not just for military navigation but for global trade—impeding operations at these points could create economic upheaval and drastically shift power balances.
For example, take the Strait of Hormuz: it’s not just another waterway; it facilitates 20-30% of the global oil supply. Should Iran decide to disrupt traffic here, the ripple effects could lead to heightened global fuel prices, hyperinflation, and economic instability. This potential disruption could be realized with relative ease, as Iran has previously hinted at military interventions like sinkings or blockades.
Also critically important is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Attacks by Houthi militias have already posed threats to merchant vessels transiting this region, complicate shipping routes dramatically and impacting broader global trade.
The Suez Canal, connecting Europe and Asia, is also at risk should maritime operations falter. Iran has been suspected of using its proxy forces like Hamas to target shipping routes, and any serious conflict could disrupt this strategic avenue, cutting off one of the world’s busiest maritime trade routes.
Shifting focus to Asia, the Strait of Malacca plays host to 25% of global maritime cargo and is seen as another major chokepoint. It is of immense importance to economies dependent on oil shipped from the Middle East. Any threats here could cause immediate crises for countries like China and Japan, which rely heavily on maritime links for energy supplies.
The South China Sea is another contested area rife with territorial disputes, especially between China and neighboring nations. Given the increasing assertiveness of China, tensions could flare anytime against the backdrop of U.S. naval patrols supporting regional allies.
Let’s not forget the Taiwan Strait, which has become increasingly strained as China eyes reunification with Taiwan. A conflict here could stretch U.S. military resources thin, particularly if attempts to stabilize the Iranian situation compel American forces to stay on alert elsewhere.
With these pressing conflicts on the horizon, experts also warn of the revival of nuclear tensions reminiscent of the Cold War. Following Russia’s military actions against Ukraine, the environment has become palpably tenser. The capabilities of nuclear arsenals have seen significant advancements since earlier decades. With the U.S. and its counterparts like Russia and China adopting more aggressive postures, the prospect of simultaneous nuclear confrontations is more tangible than it has been for generations.
Despite the fears of escalation, some analysts, like Thomas Schelling, have wrote about deterrent systems aimed at preventing all-out nuclear wars. He noted the balance of power during the Cold War was maintained through mutual assured destruction, which inhibited outright conflict. Yet, current trends suggest the fragility of this balance, with new technologies and aggressive geopolitical moves threatening to upset the status quo.
Even as global tensions rise, some experts argue there still exists hope for de-escalation. They maintain the importance of diplomacy and cooperative measures cannot be understated. Continued dialogues among major world players might pave the way for mitigating conflicts without exploding past the point of no return.
Still, as tensions continue to rise, many are left wondering what the future may hold. Will the world plunge headlong toward another global conflict, or will wisdom and foresight prevail, ushering in new strategies focused on stabilization and deterrence? The complexity of these international dynamics indicates challenges remain, along with the pressing need for worldwide cooperation to prevent the worst outdoor scenario of friction transforming dangerously.
Considering the unpredictable nature of world politics today, it’s clear the stakes are higher than ever. With so many nations situated on the edge, one can only hope rationality prevails, guiding decisions made by global leaders amid pressing challenges.
So was Irvine the first to climb Everest or did he come up a foot short?
You wouldn’t say something so callously limp if the boot was on the other foot.
I doubt that is even the peak of bad taste comments that could be made, because once you start it is an easy descent on that slippery slope.
Was it Einstein who said he didn’t know what WWIII would look like but WW4 would be fought with sticks and stones.
That’s rather profound. So it probably was Einstein, I doubt it was a Blitzer.
Close enough.
Relativity was definitely a blitzer though.
A Blitzer?
Yes, no doubt… relatively speaking.
In my work days, that was said prior to a visit to the facilities.
Netanyahu makes a public appeal to the UNSG to move the UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, on the grounds that they are being used as human shields for Hezbollah to attack Israel.
The UNSG role is administrative, in accordance with UNSC resolution 1701, extending the peacekeeper mandate to August 2025 by a UNSC resolution in August 2O24. .
The UNSC resolution pretty much delineates the placement of UN peacekeepers in preserving the Blue Line, together with the role of protecting Lebanese civilians, in cooperation with the Lebanese Army.
Hezbollah and the IDF are both considered in breach of the UNSC resolution.
The Israel Foreign Minister recently declared the UNSG persona non grata. It has been on the record for some time that Netanyahu has not returned calls from the UNSG and refuses to meet with him, will not invite him to Israel ( although some UN officials have been granted visas and have met with Israeli officials. UNRWA continues to have a presence in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem)
Israel has also criticised the Nobel Peace Prize winners for noting the suffering of children in Gaza along with that of Japanese children from the atomic bombs. The Japanese anti nuclear activist accepting the Nobel Prize said he thought the Prize would have been awarded to those working to secure peace in Gaza.
The Antarctica. The first time the whole world has agreed to leave a continent in a pristine natural state… Until now.
No, not The Artic, up north of Moscow. No, this is The Antarctica, just south of Hobart. Read on.
In a latest development which has captured global attention, Russia disclosed the finding of a massive oil reserve in the British Antarctic Territory, a region also asserted by both Argentina as well as Chile. The finding, approximated at 511 billion drums of oil, might have extensive geopolitical, conservational, as well as financial effects. Although the Antarctic Treaty presently forbids oil drilling, this discovery calls into question the areas future along with the possibility for global unease to increase.
The finding of oil in Antarctica by Russia was announced just recently, ensuing surveys which were carried out by the research vessel, Alexander Karpinsky, owned by the biggest geographical exploration corporation in Russia, Rosgeo. Approximated to be 10x bigger than the North Sea’s production in the last 50 years, this oil reserve is found in the British Antarctic Territory, an area which is almost completely covered by ice.
Although the 1959 Antarctic Treaty strictly forbids all resource removal in the area, the findings are already raising alarms. This substantial discovery has increased discussion around the likelihood of modifying the treaty, raising concerns amongst conservationists, geopolitical strategists, as well as the global community. Considering the magnitude of the reserves, it’s evident why countries might be encouraged to push for resource harnessing, regardless of the conservational effects.
Russia has maintained that their actions in the area are completely scientific, confirming their dedication to the Antarctic Treaty throughout conversations at the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting. But some specialists dispute that Russia’s seismic surveys along with other geological research are an introduction to the withdrawal of hydrocarbon.
Royal Holloway University geopolitics professor, Klaus Dodds, indicated that Russia’s activities must be seen as foundation for future resource enhancement instead of simple investigation. The data gathered from the surveys might offer the blueprint for drilling procedures, possibly modifying Antarctica’s passive status.
However, the British government, seems to have accepted sureties from Russia that they are performing genuine research. Nevertheless, the probable dispute hovers as both Argentina as well as Chile, who have established territorial assertions in the region, could feel obliged to declare their own rights more forcefully.
The finding of such enormous oil reserves exhibits an enormous prospect for Argentina, a nation already placing themselves as a possible South American forerunner. Javier Milei’s, Argentina’s President who has strong connections with countries such as the US, along, as well as the UK can assist in making way for the country to acquire considerable geopolitical guidance.
Should Argentina influence this recent oil affluence, it might reinforce their role as a main supremacy in the area, surpassing Brazil. But this would additionally make relationships in BRICS difficult, the partnership between Brazil, Russia, India, China, as well as South Africa, by positioning Argentina nearer to Western powers.
Further than the political insinuations, the ecological hazards related to oil drilling in Antarctica cannot be overlooked. The territory is among Earth’s most immaculate environments, and any steps towards the extraction of oil would have terrible outcomes. Ecologists disagree that opening Antarctica to hydrocarbon enhancement would weaken international attempts to fight climate change as well as safeguard vulnerable environments.
Moreover, the global discussion regarding whether the Antarctic Treaty must be adjusted emphasizes the unease among financial concerns as well as ecological conservation. The finding of oil in Antarctica has brought attention to the region, raising significant questions regarding Antarctic Treaty’s future along with the role of massive powers in the region.
Although Russia asserts their objectives are completely scientific, the oil reserve’s significance as well as the geopolitical risks implies that the situation might developed into a crisis for global dispute. As humanity considers the practicality of utilizing this resource, the fragile balance between both financial concerns together with ecological responsibility will be examined, possibly reforming the future of an unharmed frontier of the globe.
This is shaping up well.
Seoul says it is ‘fully ready’ for any provocation as Pyongyang deploys eight artillery brigades to the border.
14 Oct 2024
South Korea’s military has announced it is “fully ready” to respond amid reports that North Korean troops have been deployed to the border and are getting ready to blow up roads connecting the two nations along the heavily militarised dividing line.
Tensions have escalated in recent days as the nuclear-armed North accused Seoul of flying drones over its capital to drop propaganda leaflets filled with “inflammatory rumours and rubbish”, and warned that if another drone was detected, it would consider it “a declaration of war”.
South Korean military spokesman Lee Sung-jun told reporters in Seoul on Monday they are in “full readiness” against the possibility of “a provocation” after Pyongyang ordered artillery units along the border to open fire in case of an escalation.
South Korean state news agency Yonhap also quoted Lee as saying the military found that the North is installing screens along the roads “to make preparations for the explosions”.
“It is possible for [North Korea’s explosions] to take place as early as today [Monday],” he said. “If North Korea undertakes a provocation, we will strongly retaliate in terms of our right to self-defence.”
Seoul Korea neither confirmed nor denied on Monday that it was responsible for sending drones across the border, calling the North’s claim “shameless”.
Lee, its military spokesman, instead blamed Pyongyang for starting the tension after it launched “vulgar and base trash balloons” to the South.
Previously, Seoul has denied it was behind the drone flights, with local speculation centred on activist groups in the South, which have long sent propaganda and the currency of the United States, a close South Korean ally, northwards, typically by balloon.
But the North insists Seoul is officially to blame, announcing late on Sunday it had told eight artillery brigades already on war footing “to get fully ready to open fire”, and reinforced air observation posts in Pyongyang.
Pyongyang claims propaganda drones have infiltrated the capital’s airspace three times in recent days, with leader Kim Jong Un’s powerful sister threatening a “horrible disaster” unless they stop.
In a statement early on Monday, Kim Yo Jong said the drone flights were “an unpardonable, malicious challenge to our state”.
As part of the North’s retaliatory action, it also seemed to be preparing to carry out explosions at roads connected to the South, Seoul’s military said.
I am not going to copy and paste the whole article. It’s too long. If you’re interested in the why and where of WW-111, click onto the link.
Lol
UNIFIL are in breach of UNSC resolutions
UNIFIL is currently comprised of over 10k military from 50 UN States. A Spanish national is the current Commander.
The largest contingent currently is from Italy, followed by Malaysia, France, Spain, Korea and Poland.
Ignorant limpdick apes itching to take everyone down.
I don’t know of a more volatile world and fragile peace amongst humanity in my lifetime.
What a sad, sad world I leave to my children and grandchildren.
We need an Independence Day type enemy to unite the world
