An article for our times.
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That’s a very good very bad read. On the bright side I have no more need for doom scrolling today, my cup is full and empty. I may take up the drink again.
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It appears Wile E. Coyote has become a vegan. Hardly surprising after all the years trying to catch the Road Runner.
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And he didn’t even mention quantum computing and it’s likely effect on virtually everything, including AI .
No Essendon premiership either. Dire times.
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ceasefire reached in gaza
don’t wanna derail this thread into another ME rabbit hole, but thought it was worth at least mentioning
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What’s left of Gaza to fire on?
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Phase 1, with additional phases to be negotiated:
( As reported in the media)
46 day ceasefire starting 19 January ( hour unknown)
Some Israeli hostages and bodies repatriated from Gaza ( 33 hostages, including women, children and others over 50yo)
Palestine women prisoners and other prisoners under 19 yo released from Israeli prisons.
Injured Palestinians in Gaza permitted to be transferred to hospitals in other countries.
Rafah crossing to be opened, with IDF remaining in control of Philadelphia corridor
IDF to leave some populated areas, while maintaining a presence within specified kms of the Gaza/Israel border
IDF to maintain the line across north Gaza.
More humanitarian aid, with the objective of 500 trucks per day, including a fixed quantity of fuel in the aid delivered
Displaced Gazans allowed to return to where they formerly resided, including any existing homes.
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Full possible details:
PHASE 1 (42 DAYS):
1. Temporary Suspension of Hostilities:
– A temporary cessation of military operations by both sides.
– Israeli forces will withdraw from populated areas in Gaza to a zone along the border, including Wadi Gaza (Netzarim Axis and Kuwait Square).
2. Air Activity Restrictions:
– A temporary suspension of military and reconnaissance air operations in Gaza for 10 hours daily.
– Extended to 12 hours on days when hostages and prisoners are released.
3. Return of Displaced Persons and Military Withdrawals:
Day 7: Following the release of seven Palestinian prisoners, Israeli forces will withdraw entirely from Al-Rashid Street eastward to Salah Al-Din Street, dismantling all military positions. Displaced persons will return to their homes without weapons, and humanitarian aid will flow freely through Al-Rashid Street from the first day.
Day 22: Israeli forces will withdraw from central Gaza (Netzarim Axis and Kuwait Square) to areas closer to the border, dismantling military positions. Displaced persons will continue returning to their homes across Gaza, and freedom of movement for residents will persist.
4. Humanitarian Aid:
– From the first day, significant amounts of humanitarian aid, relief supplies, and fuel will enter Gaza (600 trucks daily, including 50 fuel trucks). This includes fuel for electricity generation, trade, rubble removal, and operating hospitals, clinics, and bakeries.
5. Hostage and Prisoner Exchange:
– Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages (alive or deceased), including women, children under 19, elderly individuals over 50, and injured or sick civilians.
– For each Israeli released, Israel will release 30 Palestinian minors or women.
– For each Israeli female soldier released, Israel will release 50 Palestinian prisoners.
6. Release Schedule:
Day 1: Hamas releases three Israeli civilian hostages.
Day 7: Hamas releases four additional Israeli civilians.
– Every seven days, three more Israeli hostages will be released, prioritizing women.
– By the sixth week, Hamas will release all hostages included in this phase, and Israel will release a corresponding number of Palestinian prisoners.
– Hamas will provide information on the number of hostages to be released by Day 7.
7. Re-Arrested Prisoners and Exiled Individuals:
– By Week 6, Israel will release 47 Palestinians re-arrested after the 2011 exchange deal. If the number of live hostages does not reach 33, deceased hostages will be included in the count.
– Israel will release all Palestinian women and children under 19 detained since October 7, 2023.
8. Conditions:
– Compliance with the agreement, including halting military operations, Israeli troop withdrawals, and humanitarian aid, will determine the continuation of exchanges.
– Released Palestinian prisoners cannot be re-arrested for the same charges or forced to sign release conditions.
PHASE 2 (42 DAYS):
9. Negotiations for Phase 2:
– Indirect negotiations will begin by Day 16 to define the terms of Phase 2, including the release of soldiers and other prisoners.
– Agreement must be finalized by Week 5.
10. Transition to Sustainable Calm:
– A permanent ceasefire will take effect before further prisoner exchanges, including the release of all Israeli soldiers and civilians in return for an agreed number of Palestinian prisoners.
– Israeli forces will fully withdraw from Gaza.
PHASE 3 (42 DAYS):
11. Final Exchanges and Infrastructure Rebuilding:
– Both sides will exchange bodies of deceased individuals once identified.
– A comprehensive Gaza reconstruction plan will be implemented over 3-5 years, including rebuilding homes, infrastructure, and compensating affected individuals. Egypt, Qatar, and the UN will oversee this process.
12. Freedom of Movement and Trade:
– Border crossings will open to allow free movement of goods and people.”
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I’ll give it a week before it all breaks down.
I can’t see peace happening.
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The ceasefire deal looking like it might fall over. Let’s hope they sort it out
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Israel Cabinet rescheduled meeting. Hamas stands by what was agreed in Qatar.
Houthis have signalled that, for so long as the ceasefire holds, merchant shipping in the Red Sea through the Suez Canal will not be obstructed. Egyptian revenue from Suez Canal charges will benefit.
In addition, the Houthis will hold off on missile strikes in Israel.
The fragility of the ceasefire and its duration might not be much of an incentive for northern Israelis to return to their properties.
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The temptation for the Houthis to keep firing in the Red Sea may be very strong…Houthis may pause following the Gaza ceasefire, but their ability to threaten ships will remain.
Extract from the Economist:
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The UN experts reckon the Houthis transit fees are worth $180m a month, or $2.1bn a year. In effect, that doubles the Houthis’ income.
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Very little US trade goes through the Red Sea so Trump has no incentive to keep US warships there.
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Chinese ships are not the Houthis target ships, so seem to make it through unscathed. See chart.
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Higher prices for shipping oil and gas, dry bulks like wheat, ensure a higher shipping cost to go around the long way. However shipowners are raking in profits as longer transit times soak up capacity. Maersk, a Danish shipper, reported $3.3bn in operating profit in the third quarter, up from $0.5bn a year before.
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The Houthis rely on Iranian missiles and Iranian and Russian targeting information and are very well organised. To ask for a Houthi transit permit (or extortion payment) you email them politely and they respond politely.
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No one has yet identified an effective aerial and naval strategy against them and a ground invasion of Yemen is out of the question.
I suspect it may be up to NATO or the EU to sort the Houti transit permit extortion problem out.
US has recently tightened financial transaction sanctions involving Houthis.
One thing that has stood is the civil war within Yemen. Since the end of the official ceasefire, they haven’t resumed. It’s only CENTACOM doing the aerial bombing.
Reportedly Hamas will release 4 Israeli female soldiers on Saturday , in exchange for 120 Palestinians, under a deal of 30 Palestinians for each female Israeli soldier. Reportedly, Israel had sought the release of female civilian hostages in preference to soldiers.
Some Palestinians will be released to the West Bank, others deported to Gaza or Egypt.
Some West Bank Palestinians have been arrested or detained.
Nepal is seeking the release of one Nepalese hostage ( perhaps only Israelis were part of the hostage release deal).
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Is there no end to wokeism? So woke.
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