You don’t expect me to treat you like a serious person on this topic if you’re going to say things like that, do you?
Well we can now all agree that they aren’t getting nuclear weapons. That’s not up for debate anymore.
The Iranians had enriched uranium to 60% with some particles above 80%. That was verified by the IAEA. That type of uranium enrichment has no domestic or power use. It coullf only be used for nuclear weapons.
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Wait and see.
That’s really not the thing you obviously think it is.
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I’m not sure we have enough information to say it absolutely isn’t true.
But, we also don’t have enough information that it is.
But that’s what happens in civilian life, you just don’t have the info.
There also seems to be some purposeful vagueries around what ‘weeks/months off a nuclear weapon’ actually means and looks like.
And more importantly, how that impacts a timeline for direct action.
All this allows direct action under the guise of urgency, when it might be more a case of convenience.
What we do know is that Israel were wrong about those statements, and I would suggest deliberately so, consistently over the last quarter century.
We do know that.
I think Israel purposefully confuse urgency with opportunism, particularly in their public messaging.
The threat may exist (to a degree), but the timeline for action ain’t always forced on Israel (as much as they tell the world) as much as it being at an opportune time.
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Uranium enrichment required for power sources is 3%-5%. The IAEA said Iran had enriched uranium to 60% with some particles measured above 80%.
I think Israel have found an opportunity to do what they’ve wanted to do for a very long time.
And that opportunity is not a certain level of uranium enrichment. They’re not even claiming it’s what they were claiming it was previously.
Which is…you know…weird, but I guess you can’t keep raising the percentage or you’re going to get to 110%, aren’t you.
No, the opportunity is a US that has no interest in stopping them.
So, you know. Cool.
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More threats…
Reports from Israel that there were missile attacks of some sort in the north in the last little while. Unconfirmed that it might have come from Lebanon direction.
These ops don’t exist in a vacuum, there has been identifiable steps towards this over a period of time.
Gradual degradation to the point that targeted strikes became….more possible.
The urgency sell of ‘weeks’ like it was some sort of sudden realisation doesn’t align with planning and execution over quite a few months.
It is planned, and escalated. As usual. I’m not one to get too caught up in the ethics of that tbh.
But yeah, none of this is new.
Israel can give up its nuclear weapons too.
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According to the IAEA, Iran has enriched uranium up to 60 degrees.
Weapons grade uranium is enriched to 90 degrees ( source UK House of Commons Library report).
Sinking the battleships of the US Pacific Fleet in a single air strike was a good first step.
Toppling Saddam in a lightning campaign was a good first step.
Spectacular local tactical successes mean nothing unless they contribute usefully to long term strategic goals. A first step is meaningless unless you know what the second step is going to be, and what your destination is. Step 1: bomb Iran; step 2: ???; step 3: profit!
What is the second step here? One thing it isn’t is a popular Iranian uprising against Khameni and his regime. The bombings have made sure of that. When under unprovoked attack by an external power, people get more patriotic and supportive of their government, not less - the USA after sept 11 is exhibit A. Also, the USA and Israel have made it childishly easy for the Iranian regime to paint protesters/dissidents as puppets of external enemies, or accuse them of undermining the war effort, and a lot of fence-sitters in Iran will be inclined to listen.
Second, according to your own prediction, the next US step will likely be bombing of Iranian oil refineries, which would quite possibly lead to a direct military confrontation with China.
So, after step 1, step 2 is looking like ‘functional destruction of the internal Iranian opposition movement’ and/or ‘conflict between superpowers’. Tell me again how great the first step was again?
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Also note Israel is not a signatory of U.N. Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
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They were, though.
Again, would anyone like a stab at why they’re not anymore?