I mean that’s open to interpretation. I’m just scarred by the continual “a couple more years of early draft picks”, and “we don’t have the talent to compete”. This club has leaned on that crutch for a decade now. It is very similar to Terry Wallace’s “5 year plan” era at Richmond.
Brisbane this year had 14 “top 20” (I’ll use that as a rough “first round”) picks on their list. Next year we will have 17. Sure, some haven’t kicked on, but it’s not like Sam Day and Eric Hipwood were massive contributors to Brisbane’s flag, and others they drafted disappeared. What we need is quality footballers pulling in the same direction. Well coached, and fit.
Obviously we have to accept that it’s unlikely that everything goes right but we also have to believe we’re on the right track, and back our young and talented guys to move us forward. At that point a finish between 8 & 14 would seem to be the likely result, with movement either way due to the vagaries of luck. We would expect to have good games and bad games and young players will likely tire as the season goes on, but the core of the next challenge is already here. Maybe a couple of early picks next year, and then Bewick the year afterwards, and maybe a FA or 2, but that should all be cream on the top. We have to have 15 of our next competitive team on our list now. And the club has to focus on development of that group, and trying to instill all the right habits and behaviours in that group now. Giving them the “we’re not expecting to compete this year” out clause is not the culture we want.
(Far out, that was a tangential rant if ever I saw one, apologies)
If we just look at the basics, coming into next year we have:
the third least experienced list
the second youngest list
As ladder position is generally pretty correlated with age/experience, this would suggest another bottom 6 finish awaits us.
The second question is has the list improved?
In terms of ins and outs it’s hard to judge. Draper and Setters are the major best 23 outs and Fiorini is the only readymade in.
In terms of growth within the squad, I am tempering my expectations. I generally look at the guys in that 21 to 24 bracket who have had a number of preseasons. However, our 2020 to 2022 drafts have been shown to be a disaster.
Injuries wise, hopefully we get an improvement there. Reid the obvious one.
In terms of what is our ceiling next year. In 2025 we got 6 wins with the third worst percentage. Even if you doubled our wins and added 30% we would have come 10th.
So 10 to 14 seems like our range. Sydney were 10th and added Curnow. Saints were 12th and added all those players
And we know that’s not happening. Already have Martin down, Robey with a back issue, Caddy with OP and half the list still recovering from long term injuries.
I’m picturing this over the fade to black and white shot to end the documentary of the Essendon 2026 season. It’s been a wild ride. Brownlow Medallist Elijah Tsatas has marked a scrambled kick out of defence from the Brisbane defenders, under the pump with Brisbane holding a 3 point lead as time ticks down. Tsatas goes back to have a shot from 35 out directly in front as the siren sounds. Fade to black and white. Cue voiceover.
Everything going right this year would be a low bar. Having 35 fit players to choose from would be amazing. It would allow us fans to see if there is in fact a drafting strategy and associated game plan. Seeing progress in recent draft picks. I am including the Cox / Perkins / Reid draft in this.
