You poor bastards never learn.
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NEVER!!
But donât tell me you wouldnât be excited at the thought of a Melbourne based final??
So I can watch us get rinsed in person??
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Yes!!
But we get to attend it in person.
Though I did go to the Sydney elimination final. Wouldnât recommend.
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Oh god⊠That would have been awful.
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I left at 3/4 time. And then copped â â â â from the taxi driver. Who I verbally told off.
Bright side, I was in the Qantas lounge after with Matthews, Lloyd and Lynch. Which was cool.
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We are going to play finals
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With results going the way they did this week, a spot in the top 4 seems to have opened up. 
Ess v Coll qualifying final in week 1 here we come. 
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Relax.
There are good teams sitting just outside the 8 in Geelong & Adelaide.
The Crows may well pass us tomorrow.
If Carlton defeat a faultering Melbourne next week with Oliver still out, they will be back in contention also.
We are no certainties against North with injuries to our mids, and the Carlton win is a MUST.
I wont entertain Finals in any way, until we get to the Bye at 8-5
Regardless of your thoughts on Coll, Bris & Port, those teams winning all games against sides 4th and below (exc.Ess) helps us.
It also keeps the 2 strong interstate sides out of our way Week 1 of Finals.
4th is still available to any side good enough from Melb, right down to Carlton at 13th.
Having said that, i still want the Dees to extinguish Carltonâs confidence further on Friday night.
I dont believe it helps us the following week if Carlton get back on the winners list.
Geelong losing the next 2 (WBâs at Marvel & Port at AO) needs to happen.
Forget about âbunchingâ the Ladder.
Better to kill off the teams below, which is exactly why a Bris win today over the dangerous Adelaide Crows helps us.
Of course, none of the above matters if we cant uphold our end of the bargain and get to 13 wins (minimum).
That means arriving to the Bye at 8-5.
Jostling for positions after that becomes important if Freo (or even Sydney) are in the mix.
Of course, get to 8-5, and that 4th spot might be an achievable dream.
Plenty of work to do in the coming weeks though !
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This is my lid off ladder predictor with us winning all our remaining matches.
Iâm obviously going to get a lot more wrong than that, but other than our 14 match winning streak to end the home and away, prior to our 3 wins on the trot to win the Grand Final, the rest of my predictions are relatively sober.
The surprising outcome is that Iâm predicting 14 wins may be required to make the 8, and in reality it could be a very close run thing between us and Adelaide making 8 even if we beat them at Marvel.
We will probably have to win at least three matches out of Fremantle in Perth, Port Adelaide at the MCG, Adelaide at Marvel, Geelong at Geelong, Bulldogs at Marvel , GWS in Sydney, or Collingwood at the MCG. And even then we may need to get in on percentage and have included in those 3 wins either Adelaide or maybe Fremantle to knock them out of the 8.
All this is pretty much based on all the other results go to ladder position or in some instances home ground advantage.
This is my lid on ladder without us winning any of the above matches:
Obviously, I most likely have got a lot of that wrong, but I think winning 14 matches and maintaining a good percentage are quite possibly what will be needed to make the 8, and even then we could miss if the percentage isnât better than our closest rival.
What makes me feel most positive about this season is the fact that we have had a crack in every match, and the majority of the time, in nearly all of the matches we have been able to maintain a game plan and system that has kept us in the match.
If we can get a side that looks something like this, with the players in form, I definitely see us making the 8 and winning at least one final.
Backs:
Kelly Zerk Ridley
McGrath Lav Redman
Mids:
Durham Parish Martin
Draper Zerret Shiel
Forwards:
Menzie Weideman Langford
Walla Wright Stringer
Interchange:
Perkins, Tsatas, Caldwell, Heppell
Sub: Guelfi
Emerg: Hobbs, Snelling, Setterfield, Cox, Hind, Bryan, Baldwin, Reid, A Davey, Phillips, DâAmbrosio, Voss, Wanganeen, Hayes.
What blows me away about this season is the fact that we have 35 players (including Jones) we have either played, or are keen to play soon, and all of them are capable of holding down a senior spot and there are another 5 we are excited about coming in when they are ready further down the track (i.e. Voss, Hayes, Wanganeen, J Davey and Munkara).
The thought of Wright, Parish, Shiel and eventually Tsatas coming into this side, and having genuine first round draft talent like: Hobbs, Setterfield, Cox and Reid on the sidelines is something we have never had before.
If you disagree with who is in the best 22 players I put up, I donât blame you.
In reality it is going to be a matter of what combination of senior and junior players Brad wants to try at the time, I think, and quite a few players will be unlucky to be out of the side.
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You must be new here. Welcome to the Lid off thread.
Donât let the door hit you on the way out.
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Im thinking this is what may be required to attain various levels within the 8âŠ
8th - 13 wins with a % of approx 110
6th - 14 wins with a % of 113
4th - 15 wins with a % of 116.5
I donât see us making finals.
Oh, weâre making finals baby!!
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I think if we get 13 wins and a reasonable percentage (like 105+), we make finals. We may even win one, which would be a great outcome for the season.
Thats just a self protection mechanism.
A barrier you have erected in order to protect a fragile psyche.
Weâd be a genuine 40% chance at this stage.
That goes up substantially if we can kill off Carlton in 2 weeks.
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North - win
Carlton - 50/50
Freo - loss
Port - loss
Adelaide - 50/50
Geelong - loss
Bulldogs - loss
Sydney - 50/50
WC - win
North - win
Giants - 50/50
Pies - loss
We need to win all the 50/50 games to get to 13 wins. I donât see that happening