It’s a tough one - on form you have to say yes. And his experience is so valuable.
But iirc Goddard was producing similar output in his last year, but we moved him on to give others (mostly Redman) opportunities. We might view Cox needing opportunities at half back and Heppell preventing him from doing so
Brown & Bucks were lid off on our new batch of Baby Bomber mids
Add Tsatas to those 5 and we are looking good for future
Liked BDB decision to run Perkins on Cripps this week for his development
Unless Montgomerie is seen as close, there isn’t necessarily a youngster waiting in the wings to replace Heppel. Unless we trade for one.
Looking at potential list spots that can be created and their likelihood. I’ve ignored McBride as he’s Cat B, and remember that unless one (or more) of our Cat A rookies are promoted/traded/delisted then there is no value/ability to ‘send someone to the rookie list’. As far as rules go:
So, changes and their likelihood:
In my opinion at biggest risk of leaving are the free-agents (Redman, Parish), Bryan (opportunity) and Baldwin/Voss (opportunity, position in pecking order). However, I don’t really expect Parish or Redman to go anywhere, and am desperate to see Bryan retained. I do think Voss is a risk as he may rightfully think he’ll get more chances elsewhere. Similarly, Baldwin might also go for opportunity if someone offers him a first team place now (which I think would be a smart move for North or Hawthorn, maybe Adelaide or Sydney).
Outside of that, we’re down to ‘surprise’ trades/leavers, such as if a Menzie, Snelling or Shiel was traded. All pretty unlikely.
There is probably a good argument that a list of Jones, Cox, Reid, Baldwin, Voss and Hunter is too many talls outside the best 22 (albeit, that is a straight set of 6 depth for 6 in the senior team, ignoring Stewart). I could see an argument that one has to go.
SUMMARY
If Hunter is kept, and we keep the players we want to keep, we may only have room for 2-3 new recruits. That would require Lord, Stewart, 1-3 of Walla, Heppell, and (say) Montgomerie/Voss to go. Or a surprise leaver.
Things are very very tight for list spots. With Reid, Cox, Baldwin,
Well as I said, Cox is the one if they want to settle him there
Great Summary.
List spot are now even tighter with Hunter coming in.
I don’t think a Voss or Baldwin will “leave” as another club will have to come calling and it’s rare they do for rookie listed players at other clubs who haven’t been proven at AFL level.
I think we will want to bring in 1-2 players via trade or FA.
Use one pick at the National draft
Promote 2 rookies (to tick off 3 required list changes)
Changes for me at this point
OUT
Lord
Stewart (paid out)
Next one are tough calls
Walla (too many small fwds)
Snelling (too many small fwds)
Heppell
Kelly (Paid out)
IN
Hunter (Rookie A)
Baldwin (Promoted)
Menzie (Promoted)
National Draft Pick
Trade/FA 1
Trade/FA 2
If any players like Bryan or Hind are traded out then players like Snelling or Kelly can be kept.
Some big calls will have to be made this post season!
I don’t think Cox can necessarily play that role. Heppell is playing both mediums and smalls. I think Cox would struggle on the smalls for pure pace.
To be clear, I think Cox would also be beaten by some smaller wingers. But there it isn’t so much of a problem as (a) its further from goal and (b) the expectation is he would hurt them back the other way with height.
I think Baldwin is a really interesting one. Good height, lots of goals last year in the VFL, playing defence this year and got 2-3 games in the AFL where he did very well. Arguably stuck behind Lav/Ridley/Zerk with Reid/Hayes to challenge.
I would think another developing side, such as North, could make a compelling case to him and get him really cheap. They might then have a 10 year player.
He is very interesting. I don’t think his ceiling is as high as others and could still be a solid AFL player, but will never be an elite player IMO. Reminds me a bit of Josh Walker (Cats/Bris/North) solid, can play at either end, without really making it as a consistent AFL player
I don’t think Kelly is at risk at all. Was having a very good season and a key part of our defence until he got injured. Adds experience, and we’re lacking for small/medium defenders (especially if Heppell leaves). Isn’t young, but isn’t old.
It’s also hard to see other players who are clearly best 22 or fringe, like Snelling, being cut. Scott doesn’t seem to me to be someone who would be willing to weaken the best 22. I think if its a decision between Voss/Montgomerie or Snelling, Voss or Montgomerie would be the one to go.
And you do need depth to challenge. Snelling could stay for 5-6 years being in and out of the side depending on injuries, adding pressure and a cool head. I don’t see Scott letting that go over a kid.
I think he’s got very high upside. Is a strong mark, elite disposal, mobile, competitive spirit. It really just comes down to whether he can pull all those together on a regular basis. Some do, some don’t.
As I said, if I was someone like North I’d be chasing him hard.
The AFL should change list rules.
If a club has salary cap space then they should be able to have more listed players if they choose.
Say a min of 42 and a max of say 50.
It’s silly a team that invests in youth and yet to see what that youth will turn out to be, might have to let those players go just to fit in under a 42/44 list spot requirement.
Rebuilding teams should be able to use cap space to buy picks and list more players if they choose
Oh, I agree. It is incredibly frustrating. List sizes are definitely too small for rebuilding sides.
I’m really enjoying your balanced and pragmatic assessments. There aren’t many posters on here who are unbiased and step back with a wholistic and balanced view of where things stand regarding the list. Well done, very insightful.
There’s some difficult questions isn’t there. I can see why they (Scott etc) really see this season as a discovery yesr. A chance to experiment and really understand what we have and where players fit. I note Scott’s philosophy of playing players broadly where their strength lies as an important consideration when determining the future of players on the list and if they have a role.
We have several players who appear to have strong attributes and potentially successful AFL careers. I just don’t know if they’re st Essendon or elsewhere. That’s why assessing players in the second half of the year will be so important and we need to continue to balance the short term opportunity to challenge for finals, whilst thinking medium / long term by discovering what we have. That in itself is a real balancing act.
Baldwin - Looks comfortable, reads ball well, moves nicely, good overhead. A but loose with kicking. A natural looking player down back who could conceivably slot into an AFL backline as a good defender. Is there a spot though with Reid, Hayes the prized choices.
Cox - So talented but where does he play? Where does he fit? VFL games in various roles will define what his future holds. Obvious talent but I’m none the wiser.
Voss - Great strength, good overhead, physical presence. But lots still to learn. Talented but where does he fit with Jones, Hunter in the wings fighting for roles?
Montgomerie - Would get a game in an AFL side now and probably contribute well. He looks an obvious ready made player now. But where? I suspect he’s going to have a career but I just can’t find where he plays? On this basis, why was he drafted? Good luck but I’m not sure we actually need him.
Bryan - I’ve been heartened by his last month in VFL. Really making progress after a slowish start to year had me concerned her plateaued. Still needs to improve physical presence and attack in marking contests. His physical presence broadly is his development, though I’ve been comforted by his improved aerial progress in recent times. I agree he’s a must keep. Top priority to sign.
That’s a few random thoughts. Lots of questions to be answered I’m not much time!
One of Scott’s challenges is to find balance between going for the win (finals chase) whilst answering the above questions. If we can balance all this, hopefully we can make the best possible decisions at years end.
Probably replaces Heppell in 24/25.
We’ve never really been interested in trading players who are best 22 or on the Fringe.
The only times I think we have been content with doing it recently was Fantasia, Colyer and perhaps Monfries.
I know Ants had historically talked about trading Laverde.
Perhaps that’s an option. Especially with the number of options back there, and the potential of McKay coming in.
This is where the List analysis is vital, and I haven’t really been impressed historically with it. Perhaps having input from Scott and Vozzo will improve things tho.
Unless Scott has changed his feathers, I don’t think he’s someone who trades players in the best 22 or fringe either.
I also don’t think this season has focused on development anywhere near the extent he said it would. That may be due to the goals changing as we’ve had successes, or he thinks the development is sufficient (and to be fair, plenty of kids have developed), or it was always something we took to mean more than he did.
Two comments @dmaplestone. On Voss, I’d say he’s great on lead & mark, not overhead generally. If he was better at contested overhead I think he’d have games by now. And Bryan’s slow start was because he was coming back from injury.
Does Voss get another year?
Lovett.
And we tried to trade Hooker twice.
But yep.
Been very rare.
It will be interesting.
Brad is someone who backs his players, regardless of their performance.
When he talked about his focus on development, I don’t believe he was talking about only youth…… and was speaking about the whole club. His development focus has been on our best 22 (and emergencies).
Will he put his foot down, when the conversations are taking place about trading away his best 22 players? Or will he be open to it?
Like Trading a Laverde or Hind
