I’m not aware of any academy players, but that doesn’t mean they don’t. They currently have their R1, three R2s and two R3s.
I want us to draft all the delisted players.
I guess it is risk averse. That’s fair.
I just think it looks like there’s not too much to be gained by trading out of 2022. Clubs don’t even seem super interested in giving us a 2nd this year for a 2nd from next.
And the FS & NGA kids mean we have - potentially - a lot to lose.
Of course it all hinges on how good the academy & FA kids are.
The reason for the reluctance to trade 2021 picks for 2022 picks, unless it helps with pick bids for the next draft, is that the 2022 draft is a complete unknown. It will be 2 years of COVID impacted development years for that class. This season the draft is more certain. So for instance us trying to trade 2022 picks for 2021 picks, clubs may not be open to that unless it fills a specific need for them…
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Unless I’ve lost a finger somewhere during the course of the day or forgotten how to count, the 2021 kids have had 2 x years severely impacted by COVID.
2022 kids will have had 3x years.
Only if 2022 is COVID impacted…
2021 kids have had 2 years impacted already
2022 kids have had 2 years impacted, and maybe a 3rd
To be clear, I’ve got no freaking idea if trading out of 2022 is a good idea. You’d need a really good idea of the two drafts. And overlay that with how we and other teams may go. I’m very much in the camp of “guys, we had 11 wins and other teams self-imploded”. So we may go down the ladder even if we improve. I’m perfectly fine keeping our 2022 picks.
However, I don’t think our 2022 F/S picks impact the decision. We can find points, or even go into deficit. We only will do anything like that if the kids are all guns.
Take an extreme example. We trade our F1 and F2 for two 2021 kids and a late F2 and a F3. Then three of our F/S kids become top 10 in 2022. Picks 3, 5, and 10. Oh no, we need ~4,400 points (after discount). Well, all that happens is we sing Hallelujah, try and convert as many 2023 picks to points as we can and take a deficit into 2023 (which with no first I think rolls to 2024). Say we trade our 2023 expected mid-table first for about 1,800 points. We have 1,100 points from the 2022 late R2 and two R3s. And we say fark it, we’ll just take the rest as deficit to our 2024 first. Which we can do.
So yes, we have no 2022 draft hand. And wipe our 2023 and 2024 firsts. But in their place we get three top 10 F/S talents, plus the two 2021 kids. Which if the club is right about how good the extra 2021 kids are, means 5 top talents at the cost of the 2022 draft hand and two firsts. So we’re in front.
The issue isn’t the points. It’s whether those two extra 2021 kids are worth the 2022 draft capital given up. And the verdict on that decision won’t change regardless of whether the 2022 F/S candidates become top 10 picks or go unrookied.
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People freak out way too much about how many points are needed to match bids…… the List manager knows, and will do everything needed to get the correct points.
Yes, it’s not ideal to go into deficit the following year. But you can do it…… and if you have an unbelievable hand of F/S and Academy players in one draft. I’ve got no issues with dipping into the following year’s first round pick.
From Memory, Fremantle went into deficit one year, and dropped back in the first round a couple of picks.
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Exactly. If we get a fantastic group of F/S kids it might wipe the next years draft hand. But we won’t care because we’ll have a fantastic group of F/S kids at a discount. And the main candidates fill needs.
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Yeah.
I’m wondering if it’s better to have Covid restricted seasons when you’re 15 and 16 than 17 and 18.
A lot of bad habits can sneak through at 15 and 16. At 17 and 18, you may have a good enough base to work with.
Even if Both Davey Brothers go early
First round, and we expected them to go in second round…. You can bet we’ll still
Match it, even if we don’t have enough points.
Then you take into consideration that you can trade future picks to get into the draft when it’s live.
So when people freak out
“OMG can we get both Davey twins?!?!?!?”
The answer is yes, it’s a guarantee
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It’s probably to do about a lack of exposure to these kids as well. They typically know 2 years out as to what a draft crop will look like, so they’d have less info in knowing what 2022 will look like and the relative worth of picks in that draft vs 2021.
if we keep our next year’s first/second could traded with suns next year for lots more points if needed given how many 2022 picks they have.
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Can you please tell us more about the Davey twins? How good are they? It sounds very exciting for us. Thanks
No my sure if this is a joke or not……
But if it’s not, you can find out about them on here.
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Yeah and that’s fine but why would you trade out of one draft if you thought you may need to trade back in ?
To me that seems like we’re going to get stung, twice.
We’re unable to trade our 2023 picks until next year.
We could trade out future first round pick, for a first round (this year)……
Then do exactly the same thing next year.
The other option is, that we trade out of next years first round (for this year)…… but target a Free Agent next year
The opposition club will likely decided not to match the bid, as we don’t have a first round pick to trade to them.
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F*cking hilarious. SEN media people tweeze out 30 seconds of a 2 hour segment, to write an article about Essendon. Click bait much?