List build - where are we going in the next 70,000 posts? (Part 3)

[Finding_Nino]

Ok.

[Dunnybrush]

We only had Caddy make the Under 22 AA side last year.

This year you’d think Caddy and Roberts are locks, with potentially Kako, May, Farrow, Robey & Sharpe in the mix (depending on post injury form for a couple of those guys).

[Tagger]

Caddy and Roberts were Dodoro picks. Kako is an academy so would have been drafted by Dodoro regardless

[Clone_Hirdy]

@Tagger

Caddy and Roberts were Dodoro picks.

[Heppelltitis]

@Blummers32

@Clark_Griswold

In 2020, on draft night, I wanted to trade one of our first rounders pick for Collingwood’s F1 (became Callaghan)…

But that whole event has become even more infuriating this year…because Brayden Cook now looks better than any of our picks! And he was the player written on Forster-Knight’s whiteboard when he logged into the draft practice run-through (I’ve always wondered whether that leak affected our trading strategy, because it undermined a rumour that we were going to bid on Collingwood’s Reef McInnes).

Anyway…I will never know what really happened behind the scenes…but right now, I’d prefer Callaghan OR Cook over what we’ve got.

Cook was a great junior.
But he has been an incredibly slow burn. Barely had injuries but even through 2021 and 2022, Adelaide barely prioritised him ahead of others when they could have. Played him as a sub, did well without smashing it at SANFL, but definitely could have played ahead of Brodie Smith in 2022 given where they were in their development.
A lot wouldhate sitting through the Tsatas development. This one would be painful.

Also…
Collingwood weren’t trading a future first for one in 2000. The ‘why didn’t we trade it into the future’ trope comes up often. It was the 2000 draft. Very few clubs were trading into that draft with very little U18s footy to go by for a future first that would have far more data and scouting available.

We need to move on from the 2020 draft and its permutations. It wasn’t a normal draft and hasn’t had typical draft results.
The 2020 draft had 2 AAs, 1 in the squad of 40 (1 B&F but he’s already counted). The 2019 draft had 5 AAs, 6 in the squad of 40 (incl 4 B&Fs already counted) and 1 B&F. The 2021 draft already has 2 AAs, 3 in the squad of 40 (2 B&Fs already counted.
We lucked out and got compo picks in the worst draft possible.
I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the worst draft results as far as games per player by the end of the decade.

You are spot on re 2020 draft. But where we made the mistake, was not trading Daniher in 2019. Then we end up with his pick in 2019.

Of course, one could argue they weren’t to know about COVID in advance. But my take is, it is overwhelmingly better to trade out a player than hang on to him against their will. I can only think of one example where doing the latter was actually a good decision (O’Keefe).

Fortunately, we will learn from this mistake and the abundance of similar mistakes other clubs made hanging on to players against their will, and never make it again going forwards. Oh, hang on.

[Heppelltitis]

@Tommy_Wolfe

Was doing a draft analysis for an article I’m writing on rebuilds and it got me looking at the age spread at Essendon. If we were to line up two playing squads from our list, with one being the youngest options at each position and the other being their older counterparts, it paints a real picture of where our list is sitting (and where it could go given likely 3-4 nice draft picks this year and Bewick next). Here’s how it played out:

SENIOR
FF: Wright - Edwards - Gresham
HF: Merrett - Jones - Langford
C: Fiorini - Martin - Duursma
R: Durham - Bryan - Caldwell
HB: Redman - Blakiston - El-Hawli
FB: McGrath - McKay - Ridley
I/C: Guelfi - Parish - Perkins - Setterfield - Prior

JUNIOR
FF: Gerreyn - May - El-Achkar
HF: Kako - Caddy - Day-Wicks
C: Clarke - Tsatas - Cox
R: Sharp - Visentini - Robey
HB: Farrow - Reid - Roberts
FB: Nguyen - Hayes - Kondogiannis
I/C: Unwin - Mid-Season Draftee - McMahon - Johnson - Bourke

If you overlay the sides, you hand pick the guys in the senior group that aboslutely make the junior side better. That gives you an idea as to who we can look at moving on and what list spots need upgrading urgently.

Next pre-season, the intra club matches should be oldest 22 in black, youngest 22 in red.
Then when the red team consistently beats the black team, maybe some of the senior players can take a good hard look at themselves.

[Ants]

@Heppelltitis

..
But where we made the mistake, was not trading Daniher in 2019. Then we end up with his pick in 2019.

Of course, one could argue they weren’t to know about COVID in advance. But my take is, it is overwhelmingly better to trade out a player than hang on to him against their will. I can only think of one example where doing the latter was actually a good decision (O’Keefe).

Yep. Trade Daniher, get Logan McDonald in 2020 and someone in 2019. I’m not convinced Sydney were really offering their first or were serious about trading Papley, but even if we’d got two 2019 seconds there were some very good players. Bid on Coleman earlier, take Jones and not trade up, take Warner, Trent Rivers, Comben or Worrell. Some good options there. If we did repeat the Jones trade up, could easily have Logan McDonald (replacing on of Reid/Perkins/Cox) and 1-2 of Coleman, Comben, Rivers, Worrell, Warner.

@Heppelltitis

Fortunately, we will learn from this mistake and the abundance of similar mistakes other clubs made hanging on to players against their will, and never make it again going forwards. Oh, hang on.

Its so freaking frustrating…

[yaco55]

You continue to bang on about Logan mcDonald. he’s an average player who got bumped in the 2020 draft because they played footy in WA.

[Nocturnal]

It wasn’t swagger it was desperation.

[Tagger]

The club has literally repeated the same Daniher mistake with Merrett. It’s just so frustrating. Does the club not learn its lesson?

[Go_Team_2.0]

It could work out better for us if we ask for picks in Bewick’s draft.

[Go_Team_2.0]

@Heppelltitis

I can only think of one example where doing the latter was actually a good decision (O’Keefe).

Papley? Doesn’t Bailey Humphrey want out?

[Fozdog]

@Dunnybrush

You’re a Rising Star Nino

Most determined would fit better.

[Ants]

@Go_Team_2.0

It could work out better for us if we ask for picks in Bewick’s draft.

We could have just traded the picks last year for 2027 picks if that was the priority.

[Go_Team_2.0]

We didn’t know the new draft rules. How far ahead can you trade picks?

[Ants]

Two years. Even under the old rules, with Tassie coming in we knew matching would be harder and we’d need additional picks to get all of Bewick, Darwish and Rodan.

[Stallion]

Key people involved in our list management the last 20 years should never be welcome back at this club again.

Absolute scandalous the more I think about our drafting and trading since the early 2000’s.

Fkn criminal how we let it go un challenged for so long.

No wonder we’re the worst sporting organisation in Australia, enabler of this until recently.

[Heppelltitis]

@Stallion

Fkn criminal how we let it go un challenged for so long.

Indeed.

[Ants]

@Stallion

Key people involved in our list management the last 20 years should never be welcome back at this club again.

Absolute scandalous the more I think about our drafting and trading since the early 2000’s.

Fkn criminal how we let it go un challenged for so long.

No wonder we’re the worst sporting organisation in Australia, enabler of this until recently.

Blitzers seem to forget the list was tracking well. Then the injuries hit, and to fix that we had this little thing called the saga that derailed us.

[Heppelltitis]

No. We don’t.

99.9% of Blitzers understand very well the history of our list management over the past 25 years, and have come to a resounding conclusion about our performance in this area, drawn from an abundance of evidence.

Failings in other areas do not dilute our overwhelming failure in this one.