List Management / Premiership Window impacts of the saga

Football Discussion Trade week Duursma head in
1

Buckle up, it’s a long one.

Back in 2012 I thought that we were on a similar trajectory to three teams, namely North Melbourne, Richmond and Port Adelaide and it kind of felt that our three teams, plus Freo and Sydney, were the teams that would take it up to Hawthorn.

North went 8th (2012), 10th (2013), 6th (2014), 8th (2015)
Port went 14th (2012), 7th (2013), 5th (2014) - losing a prelim to the Hawks by 3 points, 9th (2015)
Richmond went 12th (2012), 5th (2013), 8th (2014), 5th (2015)

This is not the kind of trajectory that you might have expected for those young teams based on recent AFL history and I think that the key reason for that is that about 30-40% of the talent pool was ripped out of the 2011/12 drafts due to Gold Coast and GWS. The change in the talent pool meant that older players played on for longer as there was less density in good players to push them out of spots. This, to me, is the primary reason why Hawthorn has stayed up for so long without any real competitors emerging from the pack.

Fast forward to 2016 and we see both North and Port struggling around the edges of the eight and Richmond and Freo languishing nearer the bottom of the table. Sydney has been able to stay up, but they’ve also had COLA, been able to trade in Franklin/Tippett, had a F/S acquisition in Mitchell and a fair bit of assistance from the northern academies in Mills and Heeney. e.g. Access to top end talent hasn’t been an issue.

Hawthorn, through either luck or amazing player management, have got 13 blokes on their list over the age of 27, all of whom seem to be playing career best footy. They are a pack of ****s.

Meanwhile Essendon was booted out of the finals in 2013 and had draft restrictions in both 2013/14 thanks to the AFL penalties. We managed to strike gold in 2013 with Zerrett, Fantasia and Ambrose and looks like we repeated the dose in 2014 with Laverde and Langford. We then really bottomed out in 2015 and went to the draft with some early picks and look like getting some absolute class players in Parish, Francis and Tippa, plus Redman, Brown, Hartley and fingers crossed some other talent out of it. We’re going to have another early crack this year and should add some additional top end talent to the list.

Key to that is that Merrett was for the Crameri trade, Langford was for the pick from the Ryder trade, Francis was for the pick from the Carlisle trade and Redman or Morgan was for the pick from the Melksham trade. Arguably we don’t lose those players without the saga. We also probably wouldn’t have drafted Brown or Hartley nor traded for Luenberger.

So… net effect of the saga:

Trades:
Outs: Crameri (27yo) , Ryder (28yo), Carlisle (24yo), Melksham (24yo)
Ins: Merrett (20), Langford (19), Francis (18), Redman/Morgan (18), Brown (25), Hartley (23), Luenberger (28)

Drafts:
2013 missed out on our 1st (PA - Polec *trade, Rich - Lennon, NM - Mcdonald F/S) and 2nd round (PA - Impey, Rich - Hampson *trade, NM - Dumont) picks but gained the pick for Merrett

2014 missed out on our 1st (PA - Ryder *trade, Rich - Ellis, NM - Durdin) and 2nd round (PA - Ryder *trade, Rich - Menadue, NM -Vickers-Willis) picks but gained a pick in the middle of the 1st and 2nd (Laverde) and the pick for Langford

2015 probably would have been picking in the 8-14 range (PA - traded for Dixon with 2016 2nd rnder, Rich - Rioli, NM - traded to Haw - Burton), instead got 5, 6, 29, 30

2016 probably would have again been picking in that 8-14 range, instead we’ll get pick 1, 19, etc.

So… long winded post but:

  1. Purely from a list management and premiership window perspective, do you think we’ll look back on the saga as a positive or a negative?

  2. Would you have preferred to go through what we have and have optimism ahead of you, or go through what port, north, freo and richmond have?

2

I wouldn’t wish what we’ve been through on anyone… well maybe Carlton.

I’m all for going through a committed and concerted list re-build once you assess that your current crop are incapable of winning a flag i.e. St Kilda a few years ago. So we are kind of doing that by default but it hasn’t been on our terms i.e. we have lost guys we may not have willingly chosen to trade. Additionally, we may have not quite got market value for Ryder and Crameri due to the circumstances but admittedly have limited the damages through what looks at this stage as good drafting.

Our draft penalties are another anomaly that we have had to bear that you wouldn’t in usual circumstances in a re-build. Yes we made good with what we had, but there were a couple of other great players we would have had the chance to land in 2013 and 2014. It just means that our re-build probably is a little more elongated.

Also, North played in the last two prelims, and is that not what the official/final end of season ladder is done by? So it’s probably not right to say they finished 6th and 8th in the last two seasons.

3

Its a negative, we missed a potential premiership window, but i like the analysis.
I think our next window is closer than richmond/norf. But port/freo might click again next year, if not we are closer than those two teams as well.

We may well end up lucky in that our real shot at sustained success might occur in 3+ years, which is when GWS may start to drop away.

4
  1. The answer is yes. In the event we win a premiership, everyone will be looking back on the players we picked up during this period, including this off-season still to come, and celebrating. Jackets will be considered immortal.
  2. The answer is no way in hell. You’d never choose what happened to us, ever.
5

In hindsight, having Crameri, Ryder, Carlisle & Melksham leave the club has forced our hand to hit the draft in a strong position. Especially considering the sanctions. I think it’s been a positive that these players have left. I wasn’t happy at the time, but we got pretty decent compensation for them with out it ultimately hurting the win/loss tally.

I think this is why many people are ok with seeing Hibberd leave. As we will be compensated fairly well, and a spot becomes available to a young player.

6

I’ve been thinking for a while now, that since 2000, we had a defined proud reluctance to drop down the ladder and bottom out to score a raft of top draft picks, Sheedy even stated that he didn’t think you needed to go so low to regenerate a list, and go again.

This led to our decade of stagnation, whilst clubs like Cockwood, Hawthspew etc went to the basement, scored well, and rebounded into flags.

So the argument could be made, that even though it took the clusterfk of the century to send us there for a 3 year stint, the wash up could be that we were forced to do what we were so against doing, and the end result has a good chance of being the same as it was for others.

Of course, the FkCarltons and the Melbourne skiing collective types, screwed the pooch when they went there and remained redundant, but looking at the guys we’ve added, that would seem much less likely for us than the other scenario.

A decade of dominance awaits IMO.

7
I've been thinking for a while now, that since 2000, we had a defined proud reluctance to drop down the ladder and bottom out to score a raft of top draft picks, Sheedy even stated that he didn't think you needed to go so low to regenerate a list, and go again.

This led to our decade of stagnation, whilst clubs like Cockwood, Hawthspew etc went to the basement, scored well, and rebounded into flags.

So the argument could be made, that even though it took the clusterfk of the century to send us there for a 3 year stint, the wash up could be that we were forced to do what we were so against doing, and the end result has a good chance of being the same as it was for others.

Of course, the FkCarltons and the Melbourne skiing collective types, screwed the pooch when they went there and remained redundant, but looking at the guys we’ve added, that would seem much less likely for us than the other scenario.

A decade of dominance awaits IMO.

This bar the last sentance, which whilst optimistic, not that much.

But hey I hope i’m wrong.

8

Interesting question. I will add to the post 2000/01 analysis that we lost players that we would probably have kept if possible in Moorcroft, Blumfield Caracella. Losing Bewick early (I suspect to help with salary cap pressures) hurt more than many of us thought it would have.

I also think that with a bit of luck we might have had a decent crack or two at a flag in the 02-04 years. One year we had to beat the mudlarks in one of the last games of the H&A season the final round it was an incredibly windy friday evening fixture at the G that did not suit our skilful game that relied on our two key forwards kicking a few goals. Losing that game hurt our final ladder position and finals pathway. As well as having the mudlarks go and upset port in the first week of finals it meant that we got a smarting port after they were embarrassed over there rather than the pies over here. The swans knocked them off over there in the first week of finals too resulting in us having to go over there again to play them, and losing in consecutive years. At least that is how I remembered it.

Regarding the saga, I hope this rings true for us: If it doesn’t kill you , it makes you stronger.

9

Not what your post is about, but anyway… there is an argument to say that you seek to trade out a mid-level player each year. Similar to what Hawthorn is doing with Hill this year. The more rubbish you are, the better the player you should look to move on.

It forces you to open up space on your list for the kids coming through, it gives you a stronger hand in the draft which at the least continues to refresh your list, and at best strengthens the quality of it.

This is particularly true when you have a draft team that are killing it at present.

10
I've been thinking for a while now, that since 2000, we had a defined proud reluctance to drop down the ladder and bottom out to score a raft of top draft picks, Sheedy even stated that he didn't think you needed to go so low to regenerate a list, and go again.

This led to our decade of stagnation, whilst clubs like Cockwood, Hawthspew etc went to the basement, scored well, and rebounded into flags.

So the argument could be made, that even though it took the clusterfk of the century to send us there for a 3 year stint, the wash up could be that we were forced to do what we were so against doing, and the end result has a good chance of being the same as it was for others.

Of course, the FkCarltons and the Melbourne skiing collective types, screwed the pooch when they went there and remained redundant, but looking at the guys we’ve added, that would seem much less likely for us than the other scenario.

A decade of dominance awaits IMO.

This bar the last sentance, which whilst optimistic, not that much.

But hey I hope i’m wrong.

Doesn’t do things in half measures old BD.

11

the windows beyond shut for the next decade.

12

It’s actually so shut that the window is going to open inwards, yielding a splurge of premierships - plus with a broken window, we’ll never have to worry about opening it again.

13

Hell no.

You’re analysis ignores a few things. North made two preliminary finals. Sure, they didn’t win the whole thing, but they went close. It also ignores our premiership window was opening up, and with the 2013 draft pick (maybe traded) and more ability to get FA’s (e.g. Higgins, Dal Santo), the list may have been even more primed for a tilt.

All the guys we lost would still be in their prime. We are down 4 draft picks on what we should have. The list would be far stronger now if the saga hadn’t occurred. Partly because even with the saga, we didn’t take a rebuild strategy. We kept topping up. If we’d gone, oh rats, we’re stuffed due to the saga, lets rebuild, then we wouldn’t have used picks/list spots on Cooney, Chapman, Gwilt, maybe Giles. Guys like Winders, Howlett, Dempsey would have all been either not talked out of retirement (Winders), or traded while they had offers to play (Howlett, Dempsey).

Look at 2014. The pick used on Cooney could have gone to Caleb Daniel, Mitch McGovern or Gregson. Keep a late pick from Giles/Gwilt, and maybe we nail one of the good guys who went in the rookie draft.

Hell, you can easily put down a scenario where the Saga doesn’t occur. Assume we still finish 8th/9th (good old EFC second half of season fade out), that Crameri still wanted out (was that Saga related?) as well as Melksham, but that Ryder and Carlisle stay. We don’t trade for Edwards/Aylett as we’ve got picks and less need to try and get talent through other routes. Still get Gwilt as need 3rd KP back cover but don’t pick up Cooney. Still get Chappy but no other FAs. With no Saga, and Ryder, Belly and Smack I assume we don’t pick up Giles or Leunberger. Then:

Out: Cooney, Laverde, Francis, Edwards, Leunberger
In: Sheed, Lobb, Sicily (if take another late pick), Carlisle, Ryder, Blakey, Caleb Daniel, O. McDonald
13pic1, 13pic2, late pick post Fantasia, keep, keep, 14pic2, Cooney pick, Giles pick

Obviously some of the 12/fringe guys would also need to go for the list space the extra picks would have got us. So probably Eades, Pears and our current extra senior list space. I’ve assumed we’d still have taken Langford, but earlier with our ‘true’ first rounder.

Given Ryder would be the oldest of that lot, I think we’d be pretty comfortably in front.

14
the windows beyond shut for the next decade.

Maybe mix it up for a change and say something positive Barnz…

My money has you as a Stanton booer

And a decade! That’s just a dumb statement.

15
Not what your post is about, but anyway... there is an argument to say that you seek to trade out a mid-level player each year. Similar to what Hawthorn is doing with Hill this year. The more rubbish you are, the better the player you should look to move on.

It forces you to open up space on your list for the kids coming through, it gives you a stronger hand in the draft which at the least continues to refresh your list, and at best strengthens the quality of it.

This is particularly true when you have a draft team that are killing it at present.

I think this is real smart samwoods. Particularly now with the higher probability of being able to package picks together for top end talent.

It would also assist managing the salary cap.

16
Hell no.

You’re analysis ignores a few things. North made two preliminary finals. Sure, they didn’t win the whole thing, but they went close. It also ignores our premiership window was opening up, and with the 2013 draft pick (maybe traded) and more ability to get FA’s (e.g. Higgins, Dal Santo), the list may have been even more primed for a tilt.

All the guys we lost would still be in their prime. We are down 4 draft picks on what we should have. The list would be far stronger now if the saga hadn’t occurred. Partly because even with the saga, we didn’t take a rebuild strategy. We kept topping up. If we’d gone, oh rats, we’re stuffed due to the saga, lets rebuild, then we wouldn’t have used picks/list spots on Cooney, Chapman, Gwilt, maybe Giles. Guys like Winders, Howlett, Dempsey would have all been either not talked out of retirement (Winders), or traded while they had offers to play (Howlett, Dempsey).

Look at 2014. The pick used on Cooney could have gone to Caleb Daniel, Mitch McGovern or Gregson. Keep a late pick from Giles/Gwilt, and maybe we nail one of the good guys who went in the rookie draft.

Hell, you can easily put down a scenario where the Saga doesn’t occur. Assume we still finish 8th/9th (good old EFC second half of season fade out), that Crameri still wanted out (was that Saga related?) as well as Melksham, but that Ryder and Carlisle stay. We don’t trade for Edwards/Aylett as we’ve got picks and less need to try and get talent through other routes. Still get Gwilt as need 3rd KP back cover but don’t pick up Cooney. Still get Chappy but no other FAs. With no Saga, and Ryder, Belly and Smack I assume we don’t pick up Giles or Leunberger. Then:

Out: Cooney, Laverde, Francis, Edwards, Leunberger
In: Sheed, Lobb, Sicily (if take another late pick), Carlisle, Ryder, Blakey, Caleb Daniel, O. McDonald
13pic1, 13pic2, late pick post Fantasia, keep, keep, 14pic2, Cooney pick, Giles pick

Obviously some of the 12/fringe guys would also need to go for the list space the extra picks would have got us. So probably Eades, Pears and our current extra senior list space. I’ve assumed we’d still have taken Langford, but earlier with our ‘true’ first rounder.

Given Ryder would be the oldest of that lot, I think we’d be pretty comfortably in front.

I think our list would be better (with no saga) for the next 2 years but then start to decline.

We missed our window due to the fk up but what it has done is brought our next window on faster than it would have been.

Your also right about the lack of picks but I jackets has nailed our first 2 in each of the last 3 drafts so we owe him and the recruiting dept big time. If we got 3-4 of them wrong we would currently be screwed but alas he has picked absolute GOLD

17

the key things I get from the analysis is that the players that left
Melksham, Crameri, Ryder, Carlisle. Are all in a range that have left a bit of a void of stars between older and younger guys

The replacements Langford, Cooney, Leuneberger, Zerrett, Francis I think we are ahead. and it sets us up for the future.

Anyone Over 29 now probably wont be there for our flag, unless they play on for another 3 years or we pinch one next year.

  • Gwilt
  • Hocking
  • Cooney
  • Dempsey
  • Baguley
  • Goddard
  • Watson
  • Stanton

you may argue that some of these guys shouldn’t be on the list next year anyway or will only be depth next year if they are.
And Goddard, Watson, Stanton are the only guns. Out of them three, I would actually say that Stanton has more potential to get more longevity out of his career. Year off may help Watson and Stanton in the long run who knows.

Id like to keep Hibberd

Team without these guys
B Baguley Hooker Ambrose
HB Hibberd Hurley Tippa
C Laverde Heppell Colyer
HF Zaharakis Brown Langford
F Bellchambers Daniher Fantasia
R Leuneberger Z Merrett Parish
Int Francis Myers Howlett Hartley

*Watson, Stanton, Goddard

We are pretty well set going forward
if Hibberd leaves we need a younger HBF could be McKenna, but goddard or Stanton could play there next year.
Also think we need a developing tall forward which would replace Brown at CHF
And another young midfielder hopefully with our first pick this year

18

The GCS and GWS coming into the competition has hurt every bodies window more than the saga.

We have been lucky with some quality drafting in Zerrett, Lamgford and Laverde.

But looking at teams like North, they really go hurt by not having access to that last piece, like Cats wit Selwood.

Even more so with Tigers, after Martin, when they should have taken 1-2 more drafts of top talent they were pushed down the order, it’s what has made them so average and why I think Hardwick gets a pass.

The timing of the saga really stunted our ability to have a crack, think of 2013, saga free and with Ryder, Crameri, Carlisle all firing we were strong, adding some more pieces and we would have had a tilt. But it did happen when the draft was compromised, so I think even as bad as it was, it could have been allot worse.

The Hawks on the other hand have benefited with perfect timing playing against a bunch of handicapped talent when they were already stacked.

19
the windows beyond shut for the next decade.

Maybe mix it up for a change and say something positive Barnz…

My money has you as a Stanton booer

And a decade! That’s just a dumb statement.

gagf.

20

I know this is about our saga and where we currently are. But I think it is really important to look at and understand how Hawthorn have managed to put themselves into a position where wining 4 straight flags seems more than a distinct possibility.

I will argue Hawthorn have had almost everything possible fall in there favour. About the only thing that didn’t go in their way was having access to Gary Ablett Jnr with pick 40. Thank God his old man walked out on Hawthorn when he did. The four key advantages they have received that are largely no longer available were:

  • expansion clubs coming in - details in other posts in this thread
  • cheap father son picks - now clubs are made to pay market value
  • priority picks - now all but extinct. Also they got them before they were watered down prior to the 2006 draft
  • free agency - came in at the perfect time for this to target players on a needs basis, also the fact players are choosing success over cash in most instances has played hugely into their favour. The impact of free agency isn’t just on free agent picks but also on the willingness for clubs to trade players to the club of their choice to ensure they maximise their value.

Father son wise they got Josh Kennedy with Pick 40 in 2006. Fair enough he didn’t establish himself but they still turned him and McGlynn into 3 players. Two of which are now multiple premiership players in Stratton and Suckling. Travis Tuck was another FS pick - fortunately he was too busy getting high to become a successful AFL player.

They managed to nail two priority picks that they have had:
-2001 Hodge Pick 1 priority (traded from Freo as part of a deal that saw Croad and McPharlin traded - this is the last time Pick 1 was traded)
-2004 Roughead Pick 2 priority

As I said Free Agents also came in at the perfect time. I realise they lost Buddy and Suckling (also Tom Murphy, Xavier Ellis and Clinton Young) but you could argue Buddy leaving has helped them big time as it freed up a lot of cap space allowing them to hang onto basically the remainder of their key players. They then perfectly targeted free agents to fills needs with James Frawley been the key example. Although Brian Lake wasn’t actually acquired through a trade, free agency played a part in his availability.

Overlay this with some fantastic and somewhat ballsy trading, ie the Croad/McPharlin for 1 deal or the McEvoy for Savage deal, their great drafting with late picks of players like Mitchell, Shiels, Puopolo, Suckling, Stratton and Bruest and their destination status, ie Burgoyne and Gunston and its easy to see how they have come to dominate the competition.