Middle East Discussion

As to Russian assistance, the Moscow Times of 7 February has a summary of help to Turkey and Syria.
Seems there is a fair sized presence in
Syria, but probably not in the rebel held area apart from patrolling the UN corridor

You didn’t know that?

The earthquake assistance team

In addition to its special Twitter account for Syria, OCHA has running updates on the Syrian earthquake and emergency relief.
In addition to other UN humanitarian aid UNRWA has a presence in supporting
Palestine refugees, some of whom have been reported killed or missing.
The UNRWA building, constructed to earthquakes standards, has not been affected.
The OCHA update refers to two planes from Iraq and one from Iran, bringing in relief packages
There could be something new for a poster on this site
reliefweb.int

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As an alternative to a UNSC formal decision on additional humanitarian corridors into Syria, the UN has reached agreement with Assad for two new corridors from Turkey to Syria. Convoys have already begun
This has been criticised by the White Helmets for according a measure of legitimacy to Assad.
However, given that Syrians have been in desperate straits before the earthquake, what else could be expected of the UN wearing its humanitarian hat?

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Is this the same outfit that also claimed that the S Hussein regime had huge stockpiles of chemical weapons?

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Nah. The UN energy inspectors found super highly concentrated uranium that was well well above the levels allowed in the treaty Iran signed. Doesn’t take much to take if from there to a weapon. That’s why there’s substantial indications of Israel preparing a military strike. If Iran is in a position to build a nuke in a fortnight, it pushes Israel to respond to it as a credible and imminent nation ending threat.

Iran says the readings are real, but a localised anomaly, an accident.

Enough material for 1x missile? That missile would need to be more agile than the bullet that took out JFK and nailed the other guy otherwise it couldn’t be described as a nation ending threat.

It is how the Israelis are responding. You and I can argue semantics about the scale of damage a single nuke can cause. Israel needs to assume there’s more material than detected and that the nukes are likely to be used.

The downside of overreacting is a conventional war. The downside of under-reacting is they get nuked. That’s going to push them down an early first response path.

Assad thanks his Arab brothers for help in the earthquake and other (unnamed) friendly countries. Some of their leaders have visited him in the capital, the number of cargo flights bringing humanitarian assistance is noted.
The assistance from the UN specialised agencies, funded by unfriendly countries, goes unmentioned.
The US has suspended sanctions on Syria connected to earthquake relief for 6 months.

Sadly almost zero assistance made it through the Assad regime territory into the rebel areas that needed it most.

I don’t believe Iran has the capability to deliver a nuclear strike upon Israel. However, given the mindset of the current extreme right Israeli coalition, I do think that they will use this opportunity to harm countless innocent Iranians in the name of ā€˜self preservation’.

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Israel is in trouble politically. Domestic protests by Israeli citizens, at undermining the role of the judiciary, criticism for same by a German Minister, as well as for settlements in Palestine.

This is so played that it’s a meme.

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I think UN agencies documented a few (some featuring nationals of unfriendly countries), but that region was in dire straits before the earthquakes.
Now some of the Syrian refugees over the border in Turkey are going back because of Turkish visa conditions as well as denial of access to standard welfare.

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Same in Iran.

I’m expecting some targeted strikes on military facilities. Israel will have a good list of targets that will directly cripple the Iranian nuclear program. That won’t impact the Iranian people.

I think Iran deliberately over purified a small amount of Uranium simply to allow it to be detected. It’s a pretty effective negotiation tactic, although I’m not sure what the end goal is.

The US is probably right that they’re 2 weeks away from a nuke. They could sit at 2 weeks for the next 50 years, but still hold that axe over everyone’s head.

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I thought Iran did not accept Syrian refugees at any time.
Of the close to a million refugees in Iran, most are from Iraq or Afghanistan.