The Ayatollah has reportedly pardoned thousands of prisoners in Iran, including some protesters
But no dual nationals or those accused of links with foreign governments
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Howâs this guy for his prediction
Reading other posts, he did it based on planetary geometry 
wtf.
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Edit around 9:45pm AEST thereâs been a 7.7 aftershock. Almost as big as the first one.
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Assad inviting the Israelis is a huge step. seemingly putting people before politics.
Has he asked for help from Russia.
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Assad has also invited Egyptians, who are sending teams
The UN Chiefs are trying to avoid being drawn into the politics as Assad calls for suspension of sanctions ( applied by some countries under cover of UNGA resolutions?)
Not much UN officials can do about that
Humanitarian supplies are under no way impacted by sanctions.
Nothing to do with products
He is using sanctions as leverage. He will allow more on the ground from sanctioning countries if those governments suspend sanctions.
If they donât they wonât earn brownie points with the Syrian people
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Evil. True evil.
Those governments are channeling aid through the UN agencies and Red Cross/ Crescent.
But their names wonât be on the aid delivered and Syria wonât thank them
I wish the ABC could give some attention to the Syrian refugees here with families in Syria as well as the Turkish families.
The Orthodox and eastern rite Catholic Syrian refugees here have help from their churches.
There used to be a lot of Syrian kids at a Catholic school in Keilor.
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Assad regime has a history of funnelling Red Crescent aid into regime controlled areas. Same thing is happening now, they are demanding all support go through them. Borders for fastest access to rebel held areas are blockaded.
The areas that need aid the most wonât get it.
Red Cross/ICRC will be handling the financial donations, in Turkey and Syria.
ICRC has been working through the Syrian Arab Red Crescent ( SARC) for years
There should not be concern that our donations to the Red Cross will fall into Assadâs hands ( just as it doesnât go Putin )
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Thereâs a subtlety here thatâs the concern. Does Assad let Red Crescent into the rebel held areas?
UN access to rebel areas was recently agreed.
Problem is that the transport route, through Turkey, has been destroyed by the quake.
There are a lot of destitute Syrians in tents on the Turkish side of the border. Letâs hope the Turkish Red Crescent is helping them
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White Helmets have been a continuing presence in the Kurdish controlled areas
It is no secret that the UK pumps financial assistance to them, just as Governments finance the UN agencies and international NGOs
Most of those on the ground are locals, rarely accused as spies planted.
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There is a UN sourced article in Al Jazeera on the route opened.including the UNSC January decision
The UN coordinating office, OCHA, has a special Twitter account for Syria
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Reports of anger at Erdogan , which he is suppressing with censorship, including social media.
The health impacts could be as bad as for Haiti post the 2010 earthquake, where there is currently severe political unrest.
Elections coming up in Turkey.
There could be consequences for Turkey cooperation in the Ukraine war , including in the Black Sea
2023 Gazantiep Earthquake:
An Exercise in Corruption (2).
Letâs talk more about these extremely sketchy construction amnesties, and what they offered.
In very simple terms, the Turkish government allowed constructors to be retroactively exempt buildings with a small fee.
1/18 
This scheme netted more than 3$bn to the central government, all while 50% of buildings in Turkey were built in violation of seismic regulations.
In fact, just a few days before the earthquake, a draft law was proposed to parliament which would grant further amnesty.
2/18 
Circling back to 2020 and the destruction in Izmir, a report from BBC revealed that 672,000 buildings had benefited from the construction amnesty.
The Riza Bey Apartment for example was built on a marsh with poor materials, yet was granted an amnesty along with many more.
3/18 
Since 1948, these âzoning amnestyâ laws have been passed 19 times, netting billions to the countryâs coffers and popularity to the government.
The Minister of Urban Planning even commented that âpardoned buildings donât have to be durable or solidâ, unsurprisingly.
4/18 
Letâs quickly touch on the earthquake tax.
Roughly speaking, the earthquake tax is an additional tax on a number of financial transactions, from paying income tax to purchasing plane tickets.
Created in order to fund a disasters fund, this tax has come under scrutiny.
5/18 
Thatâs because the money generated has been continually misused.
Former Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek admitted it was used to fund highway construction.
President Erdogan said itâs âno oneâs businessâ how the funds gathered from the earthquake tax were being used.
6/18 
A constantly violated seismic code, a government profiting off of those violations and an earthquake tax going anywhere.
A recipe for disaster, combined with routine governmental mismanagement and local corruption.
Thatâs what led to an absolutely massive catastrophe.
7/18 
Now itâs time to touch on Turkeyâs long-serving President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
While frequently lambasting local authorities and constructors for âmurderous negligenceâ, much of this is the result of AKP policy.
In particular, the continuous push for economic expansion.
8/18 
Turkey is a growing economy, and much of that growth has been fueled by construction projects, both government funded and private ones.
Highways (with earthquake tax income), ports, bridges and, of course, massive residential complexes for a very large population.
9/18 
This growth has led to cutting corners, and the disastrous consequences of that push for development at all costs have now become clear.
That, accompanied of course with endemic corruption, is what made this buildings weak enough to tumble one after another.
10/18 
The question now is how will the Turkish government handle this and what the political side-effects of this massive tragedy be.
Generally, Erdogan has managed to rally the country during disasters and retain or expand his power.
Iâm not sure itâll work this time.
11/18 
First of all, the scale of the disaster makes it difficult for the government to avoid missteps.
Thereâs already complaints from Hatay that theyâre being forgotten.
Sooner or later, the governmentâs rescue efforts will give way to failures before the disaster struck.
12/18 
Additionally, I fully expect Erdogan to try and clamp down on dissent.
I donât believe May elections will be postponed, although we may see much more aggressive authoritarianism.
Weâve already seen the temporary filtering of Twitter, expects this to only be the start.
13/18 
Could this work?
Maybe, thereâs a real possibility Erdogan manages to scrape through this crisis, however I wouldnât bet on it.
The opposition is more united than usual, and their relatively consistent approach on seismic safety makes them seem like a solution.
14/18 
Attempting to use foreign policy to gather support through expansionist rhetoric is unlikely to work out this time.
The solidarity shown by those branded as âenemiesâ of Turkey hurts the more aggressive policy that Erdogan has tried to follow on the world stage.
15/18 
I expect weâll see very quick reactions, like firing top officials and announcing generous emergency subsidies to try and stabilise the situation.
Once again, the first month or so will be crucial to see whether Erdogan will survive in Mayâs presidential election.
16/18 
Erdogan is a naturally divisive leader, both internally and externally, something which doesnât suit a time of crisis.
Iâm not saying itâs a done deal, however if Erdogan doesnât play his cards well he may find himself in really big troubles very, very soon.
17/18 
Keep your eyes on Turkey, an already precarious electoral situation has just been completely derailed by a truly biblical disaster.
Itâs impact will not be confined to the collapsed apartments of Antakya and KahramanmaraĆ, and I believe we have a long way to go still.
18/18
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I heard via someone with family living in Turkey just over the Syrian border of the shonky multi rise Housing being constructed there.
It has not been affected by the earthquake or aftershocks but is in a seismic prone area.
It is scandalous
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