You just won the premiership. Do we ship off some players to rebuild for the next flag or hold our team together hoping for a three peat while tinkering around the edges? Both options have risk. Ship off team morale drops and new players turn out to be duds. Keep together but team never performs back to its peak.
However, finance is not like football. It was a risk even when you thought it wasn’t a risk. There is a reason why you have different investment strategies for short, medium and long term growth.
Reassess your evaluation and goals to see if your plan continues to match the risk you are prepared to take. If it doesn’t match up anymore you have your answer.
Nah, don’t be like that. Look. Let it soak in. Losses are great refreshers and the market can humble you quicker than you think, no matter how well you’re doing. It’s always great to keep the hubris in check.
A lot of material I’m reading right now would seem to indicate that we finish the year about flat, which would be a pretty good outcome all things considered. I’m out of growth (although have been for a while) for the time being. Definitely a couple businesses locally I’m interested in, but they’ll have to wait.
I think there’s great opportunities in resources especially as supply-side risks increase and CCI improves.
IMO…
This is the ‘correction’ we had to have.
The run we’ve had has been pretty bloody good. Since June 2020, it’s been an amazing run. Almost any stock has been viable.
I liken this correction to the one we had towards the end of 2018 / early 2019. For memory that was around a 10% drop over two or three months. The difference is that in the last few years, government handouts have inflated the market so the correction should be a bit larger than that. I think we’ve already hit 10% loss this year, so there’s a bit more to go.
There will be some small upticks but generally, I think this will be a downturn for around another month at least. There’ll probably be another 10% shaved off the market in that time. Then there’ll be quite a bit of bouncing up and down like we were accustomed to pre COVID, before it returns to it’s overall longterm upward trend.
In addition to the turmoil in US markets last night, Aust to release today:
Strongest quarterly inflation rate in 16 years.
Fastest rising quarterly inflation rate seen in 7.5 hears
This pending news encouraged much more wide spread sell local off across the board yesterday. US Fed Reserve looks like it might raise interest rates as early as next month.
Let’s see if the RBA changes its current ridiculous stance on its Interest rate outlook - and let’s see if the RBA has the balls to be independent from current political pressure.
]