Lithium stock well up today…VUL had dropped to about $4.80 yesterday…back over $6 today.
I’d be down for the day but for lithium.
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Fair jump in the stock market today.
Imugene (IMU) has announced good results in tests of their vaccine for gastric cancer, and is up from 16.5c to 23.5c.
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Still down a solid 60% from it’s November highs
And I think that plays into the issue I have with speculative stocks in general. Unless you somehow had the foresight to invest prior to May last year when it was basically unknown or after April this year (when it hit the bottom) despite the 45% one day increase, you will still have lost money on it.
I’ve done alright with a couple of speculative mining companies, but I absolutely hated the process of getting there. Could have just as easily turned out to be horrible investments.
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…I know you said financial planning, just be a bit wary of using a local accountant for investment advice on your subsequent capital/investments as that where I see this heading. IMO, my local accountant are very good at tax and tax account administration. For info, they set up my SMSF which is operating very nicely, but do not manage the capital/investments within it.
IMO, I would recommend seeking out a specialist firm for your financial planning. There are plenty of good ones about.
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HODL
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Received some interesting data yesterday and it might be well known but good to get a refresher.
For a broad based investment strategy across asset classes.
A momentum strategy has by far outstripped value,growth and index performance over the past 15 years.(in the US at least).
Keeping in mind that this strategy hurts a bit more in a downturn it still outperforms a growth strategy.
Only catch is using it, is a momentum investment strategy occurs higher transaction costs as your turning over poorer recent performers for good ones every 3 months.
So if investing with enough capital and low enough transaction cost it’s worth looking into.
Some crazy person during a site visit basically made me promise if I had 30k to plonk on one bitcoin I would virtually be assured of 1mil in a few years time.
Seems too good to be true
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Its just as likely to be worth a bucket of dirt.
Re crypto and speculative investments you could also back a few penny stocks and maybe get lucky.
I have a mate who was temporarily a millionaire on Brainchip stock recently.
Those penny stocks also go to zero a lot of the time!(as do cryptos)
“Herding”
The highs create higher highs as it generates more people wanting to be a part of it, but also the lows create lower lows.
From the behavioral finance point of view, the crowd activity literature is titled herding. The herding is described as a decision-making approach characterized by imitating other peoples’ behavior. It is also defined by Almansour (2015) and Almansour (2017) as a situation in which rational investors tend to act irrationally by imitating others’ judgments when it comes to making such investment decisions. It is stated that the herding factors affect asset prices significantly, which is considered as part of the capital assets pricing theory. Moreover, herding can cause some emotional biases, including conformity, congruity and cognitive conflict, home bias, and gossip theories (Almansour, 2017; Balcilar Demirer & Hammoudeh, 2012). In the equity financial market, several studies investigated the influence of herding factors on investors’ investment decisions in equity markets (Alevy, Haigh & List, 2007; Almansour, 2017; Celen & Kariv, 2004; Park & Sabourian, 2011). They concluded that the herding factors significantly affected investors’ investment decisions in equity markets, which means that herding factors caused emotional biases in these decisions.
Thats a very convoluted way to say that retail investors get hyped by overhyped prospects and end up losing money when instos sell out.
I now have a migraine.
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Depending on location, a bucket of dirt could quite plausibly be worth a million, given today’s property prices.
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Im talking outer western victoria bucket of dirt
Rate decision due tomorrow…the expected change is +0.50% (0.85% to 1.35%).
And the futures market has eased back on its doomsday outlook…at it’s worst, the futures market was forecasting a peak rate of 4.4%…now the peak rate has dropped to 3.5%, and it has the slightest crest-like shape to it:
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gosh that’s good timing, I sold an apartment at 7.30 tonight. It’s been hard to get anybody to commit.
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The reason the future markets is pulling back on rate increases is not good news.
Asx is down 12% ytd, all ords 15%, hang SEN 6% and it is the next 6-8 months when the carnage is going to hit as stimulus stops, fy22 accounts are finalised and ato starts pursuing unpaid taxes.
There will be 10s of thousands of business that go under in the next 6 months.
I always wanted to name my trust ‘in Soulnet we’ but it was knocked back.
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The reason the equities markets are down is because they are forward looking. And could also be oversold.
If there’s one thing to consider now is that the next 12-24 months could have as many surprises in it as the last 12-24 months.
For example all it would take is one positive US inflation number.
Or perhaps a breakthrough in Ukraine or China coming out of lockdown on the supply side.
My infrastructure fund I have some money right now is killing it. I have double digit returns for the year.
Thank god as it’s helping maintain some of my wealth as a few other holdings take a bath.
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I have been pondering the US versus Australian mortgage markets…
Most of all, I was thinking about how the US has access to 30 year fixed rate mortgages. That way, when you buy a property and finance it, you know exactly what the property will ultimately cost.
In Australia, you put your 20% equity in, so that’s fixed…but you don’t actually know what the other 80% is going to end up costing. You just start a variable financing journey on that 80%.
Anyway, returning to the US…in my mind, the effective property price in that market is the 30 year fixed repayment on a new mortgage…recently, both the property price and the mortgage rate have been increasing…so I went looking for a chart of that all-in figure…it wasn’t easy to find, but eventually, courtesy of the National Association of Realtors:
…so the cost of a property purchase has effectively risen 50% in just the last six months.
I know all property sales indicators are rolling over in the US…but looking at this chart…I think it should really worsen into a “buyers strike”.
It’s reaffirmed my belief that the worst is still ahead.
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