Playing badly against bad teams (or not)

Football Discussion Dustin Fletcher Hangar
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I’m very much a member of the “we play ■■■■ against ■■■■ teams” brigade, but given the arguments happening in every single thread I thought I might go and look at the numbers to prove that it’s true once and for all. Turns out it’s not really true, depending on the standards you expect us to play to.

For the sake of this post, ■■■■ teams are teams in the bottom 6.

Since 2011, we’ve played 29 games against bottom 6 teams.
22 wins. Average margin 44 points, 7 under 3 goals.
6 losses. Average margin 21 points, 4 of them under 3 goals.
1 draw, to fark carlton. fark carlton.

2012 was the best, 7 games for 6 wins, 1 loss. Wins were by 67, 25, 50, 84, 17, 66. To me, that’s two disappointing games out of 7.
2014 was by far the worst, 7 games for 4 wins, 2 losses and a draw. The wins being by 81, 15, 8, 8. To me, that’s 6 disappointing games out of 7.

So, we win about 75% of our games against bottom 6 teams in a period where we have won 55% of our games overall. A third of those wins have been by margins that would suggest we didn’t play as well as we should/could have.

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These weaker sides I think almost sense our vulnerability and seem to always bring their A game, and I think we panic

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I'm very much a member of the "we play ■■■■ against ■■■■ teams" brigade, but given the arguments happening in every single thread I thought I might go and look at the numbers to prove that it's true once and for all. Turns out it's not really true, depending on the standards you expect us to play to.

For the sake of this post, ■■■■ teams are teams in the bottom 6.

Since 2011, we’ve played 29 games against bottom 6 teams.
22 wins. Average margin 44 points, 7 under 3 goals.
6 losses. Average margin 21 points, 4 of them under 3 goals.
1 draw, to fark carlton. fark carlton.

2012 was the best, 7 games for 6 wins, 1 loss. Wins were by 67, 25, 50, 84, 17, 66. To me, that’s two disappointing games out of 7.
2014 was by far the worst, 7 games for 4 wins, 2 losses and a draw. The wins being by 81, 15, 8, 8. To me, that’s 6 disappointing games out of 7.

So, we win about 75% of our games against bottom 6 teams in a period where we have won 55% of our games overall. A third of those wins have been by margins that would suggest we didn’t play as well as we should/could have.


really? the year before saga began openly effecting us and we got told we weren’t going to be able to play finals we won 6 out of 7?

well there’s a long term ■■■■■■■ problem ya?

and the year they told us not allowed to play finals they still had to take us out of the finals?

and the year the media spent waging a losing war demanding punishment and claiming drug effected children. we still made the final but got told Ryder was leaving mid week?

And now we’ve lost to the second place team and the 6th place team.

yeah but we fans deserved more impressive wins against saints and carlton. ■■■■■■■ lazy not putting their head over it players. don’t they know what we fans put up with for 2 years?

put an effort in while we get drunk in the stands or on our couches you ■■■■■. We supported you for 2 years while the world ■■■■ on you and now they’ve mostly stopped and 3 wins out of 5 games after no pre-season is how you repay us? same old pattern of sucking as 5 years ago still going on only it’s one of those patterns that doesn’t hold up statistically.

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These weaker sides I think almost sense our vulnerability and seem to always bring their A game, and I think we panic

This
Doesn’t excuse our performances but you get the.feeling weaker sides go into playing us with increased confidence due to our track record

5
I'm very much a member of the "we play ■■■■ against ■■■■ teams" brigade, but given the arguments happening in every single thread I thought I might go and look at the numbers to prove that it's true once and for all. Turns out it's not really true, depending on the standards you expect us to play to.

For the sake of this post, ■■■■ teams are teams in the bottom 6.

Since 2011, we’ve played 29 games against bottom 6 teams.
22 wins. Average margin 44 points, 7 under 3 goals.
6 losses. Average margin 21 points, 4 of them under 3 goals.
1 draw, to fark carlton. fark carlton.

2012 was the best, 7 games for 6 wins, 1 loss. Wins were by 67, 25, 50, 84, 17, 66. To me, that’s two disappointing games out of 7.
2014 was by far the worst, 7 games for 4 wins, 2 losses and a draw. The wins being by 81, 15, 8, 8. To me, that’s 6 disappointing games out of 7.

So, we win about 75% of our games against bottom 6 teams in a period where we have won 55% of our games overall. A third of those wins have been by margins that would suggest we didn’t play as well as we should/could have.


really? the year before saga began openly effecting us and we got told we weren’t going to be able to play finals we won 6 out of 7?

well there’s a long term ■■■■■■■ problem ya?

and the year they told us not allowed to play finals they still had to take us out of the finals?

and the year the media spent waging a losing war demanding punishment and claiming drug effected children. we still made the final but got told Ryder was leaving mid week?

And now we’ve lost to the second place team and the 6th place team.

yeah but we fans deserved more impressive wins against saints and carlton. ■■■■■■■ lazy not putting their head over it players. don’t they know what we fans put up with for 2 years?

put an effort in while we get drunk in the stands or on our couches you ■■■■■. We supported you for 2 years while the world ■■■■ on you and now they’ve mostly stopped and 3 wins out of 5 games after no pre-season is how you repay us? same old pattern of sucking as 5 years ago still going on only it’s one of those patterns that doesn’t hold up statistically.

So, the whole point of the post was that we’ve actually been better against the bottom teams than I thought. Apparently that wasn’t clear enough. My bad.

Edit: unless that was a general rant, and not one directed at me, in which case that’s my bad.

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For comparison (not that we should be expecting the same, just to show what the best team does), Hawthorn are 28 wins from 29, with an average winning margin of 61 points, and 2 wins under 3 goals.

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I'm very much a member of the "we play ■■■■ against ■■■■ teams" brigade, but given the arguments happening in every single thread I thought I might go and look at the numbers to prove that it's true once and for all. Turns out it's not really true, depending on the standards you expect us to play to.

For the sake of this post, ■■■■ teams are teams in the bottom 6.

Since 2011, we’ve played 29 games against bottom 6 teams.
22 wins. Average margin 44 points, 7 under 3 goals.
6 losses. Average margin 21 points, 4 of them under 3 goals.
1 draw, to fark carlton. fark carlton.

2012 was the best, 7 games for 6 wins, 1 loss. Wins were by 67, 25, 50, 84, 17, 66. To me, that’s two disappointing games out of 7.
2014 was by far the worst, 7 games for 4 wins, 2 losses and a draw. The wins being by 81, 15, 8, 8. To me, that’s 6 disappointing games out of 7.

So, we win about 75% of our games against bottom 6 teams in a period where we have won 55% of our games overall. A third of those wins have been by margins that would suggest we didn’t play as well as we should/could have.


really? the year before saga began openly effecting us and we got told we weren’t going to be able to play finals we won 6 out of 7?

well there’s a long term ■■■■■■■ problem ya?

and the year they told us not allowed to play finals they still had to take us out of the finals?

and the year the media spent waging a losing war demanding punishment and claiming drug effected children. we still made the final but got told Ryder was leaving mid week?

And now we’ve lost to the second place team and the 6th place team.

yeah but we fans deserved more impressive wins against saints and carlton. ■■■■■■■ lazy not putting their head over it players. don’t they know what we fans put up with for 2 years?

put an effort in while we get drunk in the stands or on our couches you ■■■■■. We supported you for 2 years while the world ■■■■ on you and now they’ve mostly stopped and 3 wins out of 5 games after no pre-season is how you repay us? same old pattern of sucking as 5 years ago still going on only it’s one of those patterns that doesn’t hold up statistically.

So, the whole point of the post was that we’ve actually been better against the bottom teams than I thought. Apparently that wasn’t clear enough. My bad.

Edit: unless that was a general rant, and not one directed at me, in which case that’s my bad.


general rant*

*although it’s the second response I wrote. I really teed off on you the first time because I missed the “turns out it’s not true bit”. seemed too mental read those stats as proof we were bad though so I had a re-read which is why I’m admitting I nearly made a huge ■■■■ of myself instead of having to apologise.

1 Like
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I'm very much a member of the "we play ■■■■ against ■■■■ teams" brigade, but given the arguments happening in every single thread I thought I might go and look at the numbers to prove that it's true once and for all. Turns out it's not really true, depending on the standards you expect us to play to.

For the sake of this post, ■■■■ teams are teams in the bottom 6.

Since 2011, we’ve played 29 games against bottom 6 teams.
22 wins. Average margin 44 points, 7 under 3 goals.
6 losses. Average margin 21 points, 4 of them under 3 goals.
1 draw, to fark carlton. fark carlton.

2012 was the best, 7 games for 6 wins, 1 loss. Wins were by 67, 25, 50, 84, 17, 66. To me, that’s two disappointing games out of 7.
2014 was by far the worst, 7 games for 4 wins, 2 losses and a draw. The wins being by 81, 15, 8, 8. To me, that’s 6 disappointing games out of 7.

So, we win about 75% of our games against bottom 6 teams in a period where we have won 55% of our games overall. A third of those wins have been by margins that would suggest we didn’t play as well as we should/could have.


really? the year before saga began openly effecting us and we got told we weren’t going to be able to play finals we won 6 out of 7?

well there’s a long term ■■■■■■■ problem ya?

and the year they told us not allowed to play finals they still had to take us out of the finals?

and the year the media spent waging a losing war demanding punishment and claiming drug effected children. we still made the final but got told Ryder was leaving mid week?

And now we’ve lost to the second place team and the 6th place team.

yeah but we fans deserved more impressive wins against saints and carlton. ■■■■■■■ lazy not putting their head over it players. don’t they know what we fans put up with for 2 years?

put an effort in while we get drunk in the stands or on our couches you ■■■■■. We supported you for 2 years while the world ■■■■ on you and now they’ve mostly stopped and 3 wins out of 5 games after no pre-season is how you repay us? same old pattern of sucking as 5 years ago still going on only it’s one of those patterns that doesn’t hold up statistically.

So, the whole point of the post was that we’ve actually been better against the bottom teams than I thought. Apparently that wasn’t clear enough. My bad.

Edit: unless that was a general rant, and not one directed at me, in which case that’s my bad.


general rant*

*although it’s the second response I wrote. I really teed off on you the first time because I missed the “turns out it’s not true bit”. seemed too mental read those stats as proof we were bad though so I had a re-read which is why I’m admitting I nearly made a huge ■■■■ of myself instead of having to apologise.

I did kind of bury the lead in the opening paragraph. Please accept a friendly internet handshake.

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Well, I wish I knew earlier that there was going to be a whole thread about it…

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We are definitely crap at cashing in on the bottom sides. Take GWS for example, have had to work for every win against them. 9 teams have beaten them by over 100 points. 3 more had wins of 90+, and even the gold coast smashed them bY 83. We’ve always looked ordinary against them, every game whereas everyone else makes it look like a breeze. Even west coast, and they’re no good

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There is only one team in the AFL that Melbourne would look forward to playing and that’s us. Says it all really.

I don’t expect us to hammer bottom sides every single time we play them, but to scrape over the line against them almost every single time is infuriating.

Almost every time we allow the opposition to drag us down to their level.

We rarely ever have percentage boosting wins.

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The numbers don’t lie. But. I will choose ignorance.

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Damn, first there’s empirical evidence that Bellchambers tapped well the other day, now this?! Next someone will show us that we get more frees than other teams when Pannell umpires. Argh! My curmudgeonly world is crumbling.

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29 games against bottom 6 teams since 2011. WON 22 average WINNING margin 44 points

We are definitely crap at cashing in on the bottom sides. Take GWS for example, have had to work for every win against them. 9 teams have beaten them by over 100 points. 3 more had wins of 90+, and even the gold coast smashed them bY 83. We’ve always looked ordinary against them, every game whereas everyone else makes it look like a breeze. Even west coast, and they’re no good

29 games against bottom 6 teams since 2011. WON 22 average WINNING margin 44 points

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29 games against bottom 6 teams since 2011. WON 22 average WINNING margin 44 points

There is only one team in the AFL that Melbourne would look forward to playing and that’s us. Says it all really.

I don’t expect us to hammer bottom sides every single time we play them, but to scrape over the line against them almost every single time is infuriating.

Almost every time we allow the opposition to drag us down to their level.

We rarely ever have percentage boosting wins.

29 games against bottom 6 teams since 2011. WON 22 average WINNING margin 44 points

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Is it a reading problem, or one of comprehension?

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Is it a reading problem, or one of comprehension?

22 out of 29 isn’t great. You can’t be a top side and drop a quarter of the games you play against the bottom clubs. We’ll never crack top 4 if that continues.

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Is it a reading problem, or one of comprehension?

I think the players just lack intensity and think they are gonna win easy against bad sides but they try really hard against good sides.

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Lose the next 2 games and we will be a bottom 6 team.

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Lose the next 2 games and we will be a bottom 6 team.

all grow wings and we’ll be a baffling evolutionary anomaly.

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