Rd 17: Team v St Kilda - Woosha gives us the Bird

I agree, but it is worrisome that their form has drop that’s all…

I can see us destroying them tonight. Bombers by 10 goals

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Same thing, but using AFL voodoo stats:

Hurley - 17th
Hooker - 19th
Watson (just dropped) - 23rd
McGrath - 26th
Colyer - 27th

Well at least this means I don’t have to worry about Ambrose getting back into the team.

FFS.

Not surprised - this our second game in a row off a 6 day break.

Worsfold learnt his lesson about playing Jobe of back-to-back sub 7 day breaks earlier in the season.

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Pretty sure DATA could work it out. Wonder if the AFL is still around in Stardate 41376.5

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Uh don’t know if this is an omen. I work next door to the Essendon ground and a fire truck has just roared in. Can’t see any fire, but all the staff are on the oval.

Saints have set off a fire alarm?!? :joy:

Tayte Pears to the rescue!

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:joy:. Well a second truck has just arrived!! Not on game day!!

Talking about consecutive 6 day breaks, the Saints have the same issue and came back from WA the week before the Tigers game. Will be interesting to see how they back up factoring in the kick back from travelling interstate + building themselves up for last weeks game + playing consecutive games on the taxing Etihad surface? #graspingatstraws

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Woosha: “Boys, when I said ‘lets burn up the training track before our big match,’ I didn’t mean…”

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i think we’re screwed.

I think that every week.

kill me now.

Dreamteam scores tell you stuff all about the game except the guys who rack up stats. Not a good point of reference.

Shaw thinks we’ll win. Lid on, but thinks we’ll win.

You mean last week?

I do.

Don’t ask me why, but wondering about the possibilty/probability of that occurring sent me on a weird pattern seeking journey, and then a mathematical one, and what I discovered was positive enough to share, … I think.

Firstly I noticed a pattern in our W’s & L’s which ran over seven games and repeated, so …
1st. 7 WWLLWLL,
2nd 7 WWLLWLL
3rd. 7 W

Then I set them up thus …

1st 7 Games: W25 W27 L15 L65 W18 L38 L37 (5 out of T8 2 inside T8) -85 diff avg -12.2

2nd 7 Games: W17 W61 L15 L16 W70 L01 L08 (2 out of T8 5 inside T8) +108 diff avg +15.4

3rd 7 Games: W37

And what you might see is an AVGE 27.6 point improvement in margin across the 2nd 7 games, despite playing the exact opposite amount of teams currently placed in & out of the T8, … not bad eh?

So then I wondered, what if all predictions are right, and we do play our best footy in the final 3rd of the season?

So if we improve by half of what we did over the 2nd stanza of 7 during the 3rd set of 7, which you might think is well possible given we again play the opposite amount of teams in and out of the T8 compared with set 2, then our margins should/would increase by half again on what it did between set 1 & 2, which would mean an avge margin of 29.2, of which we’ve won the 1st by 20, which is already above the avge for stanza 2 by 5 points, so fits in with the trajectoriy / sequence and tracking, just about perfectly.

So then, (because you can’t guess actual margins),… if you apply a 29.2 point margin across the 3rd set of 7 as a constant, and add it to the margin of it’s corresponding game in the previous set of 7 just for the hell of it. it equates to

1st 7 Games: W25 W27 L15 L65 W18 L38 L37 (5 out of T8 2 inside T8) -85 diff avg -12.2

2nd 7 Games: W17 W61 L15 L16 W70 L01 L08 (2 out of T8 5 inside T8) +108 diff avg +15.4

3rd 7 Games: W37 W90 W14 W13 W99 W28 W37 (5 out of T8 2 inside T8) +204 diff avg +29.2

And sitting right there in the Saints game spot there’s a near hundred point margin. So you may just get your wish!! Woo hoo.

(Ok, the last bit is pretty funky math & assumption, … but the rest of it is something pretty positive, and really should bode well for this final set of 7 games, …

Fk knows what happens in game 22 though … :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:

I got a bit confused trying to work out percentage of improvement 'tween sets 1 & 2 so as to try to apply an expected %value for improvement in the 3rd, but I broke my brain, … maybe one of our superior math heads can extrapolate more from it all??

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Say that again…

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Too much overuse of irrelevant stats, not enough Birdman

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What size crowd are we expecting. I’ve only got a home game membership so need to buy a GA ticket at the gate