Round 1 2025 Review

Late review I know, but here it is. Thanks to @Heffsgirl for the reminder :slightly_smiling_face:

Went last night and sat high up the Olympic Stand so had a great view of team structure, player running patterns etc. @VanDerHaar went along as well and may post some additional views.

Why did we lose? Here are what I think are the contributing factors.

  1. Main issue was we were ever-so-slightly off the pace of the game early given our Round 0 game was washed out and the Hawks got to play theirs. It was very evident in that, when we went to leave an opponent to go to a Hawk player nearby who was about to receive the ball, the Essendon player got there a fraction of a second late to stop the Hawk player receiving the ball and giving it off - often to the next Hawk player whom the Essendon player had rolled off to intercept. This created a Chinese checkers effect of Hawk players handballing over the top of an Essendon player caught between the Hawk player handballing and the Essendon player’s opponent now free to receive the handball under no pressure. And, so it went, resulting in a Hawk player able to then pass the ball by foot - again under no pressure - to whomever he liked. Hence why they had so many easy marks in F50. By early in the second quarter we had adjusted to the tempo.

  2. What further exacerbated - if not started this problem - was us wanting an extra man at an around the ground stoppage despite Worpel not playing. Hawthorn, like Geelong often, will play the resultant spare 30m behind the stoppage to clean up the resultant, often ā€œdirtyā€ Essendon clearance. This Hawk player could then quickly dispose of the ball to a free Hawk player made free by an Essendon player going up to challenge the spare. So, you get the Point 1 issue again. Wash, rinse, repeat. It took the coach until half time to change the structure as I didn’t notice this issue anywhere near as much after halftime.

  3. Slipping over continually whilst Hawthorn players hardly ever did. It is a combination of, possibly footwear, but definitely player style. Our players - McGrath being the worst example - too often are heading in one direction then suddenly decide to change direction to go in another and either slipped over or put themselves or a teammate under immense pressure. No Hawthorn player did this that I can recall. Once they have the ball they move forward, at any angle, honouring whichever teammate is free - quite prepared to kick to a contest if not. McGrath had a 2 minute purple patch in Q2 when he twice came through half back and hit teammates with superb 30m passes because he ran on the line he was on and then kicked to a teammate’s advantage as he was balanced. But then reverted to his usual, sudden-twisting style a short time later.

  4. Foot skills - at QTR time the Disposal Efficiency % (DE) gap between the sides was staggering and something I had rarely seen before - Hawks were in the low 80s and we were in the high 60s. We had also had 7 more turnovers. Hence why the scoreboard read what it read. We did close both stats by the end of the game (DE% about 77-71, and we were only +5 on Turnovers) as we adjusted to the tempo, the coach stopped conceding a spare forward side of a stoppage so much…and Hobbs and Tsatas got into the game after half time and Redman went back to HB with Ridley off injured.

Speaking of Redman…what a stupid, brain-dead and arrogant decision to play him as a midfielder off only two training sessions after not playing a competitive game of football for a month when he has never trained as a midfielder - relegating young mids (Tsatas & Hobbs) to extended periods on the bench in H1, throwing team structure out to the point we had to make Gresham the sub (instead of Archie Roberts/Prior/Reid). Part of our improvement, after half time, was due to players spending time playing in the positions they know well and have trained for. Tsatas only had 57% time on ground but still got the ball 18 times with 5 clearances - equal 3rd clearances on the ground with Draper. His handball, at a forward stoppage, in Q2 that led to the great Merrett snap from the pocket was sublime.

Ben McKay continually let his man lead into space and not go with him…preferring to guard the corridor or long bomb, or maybe because he is lazy. It allowed Hardwicke and Newcombe to take easy marks. The ball only gets bombed long when the ball kicker is under pressure. But the Hawk ball kickers were not under pressure due to the game style problems I noticed earlier. Even late in the game, when they did kick high to a pack in their F50, they could count on Prior’s opponent outmarking him. I can’t recall seeing a defender losing so many contests in a single game. He couldn’t even halve them. I hope it’s just one off but fear it may not be and is exactly why he couldn’t get a regular game at the Lions.

At times, it seemed to me if Scott wanted a tall back line to take a lot of intercept marks then he needs a structure up the field that is more 1:1 so that the Hawk kicker is under pressure and has to bomb the ball. Instead, his structure at stoppages allows the opposition a free player to sweep the ball at the back and then send it to a free team mate that cascades all they way to a score. It’s almost like Scott, and his coaching staff, don’t understand doing something with structure/gameplan at stoppages actually directly impacts what happens to the team defensively having to cope with unpressured opposition kicks going into our D50.

Ultimately, taking a step back and looking at things at a higher level, their was decided difference in class, especially when it came to foot skills and team structure/game plan, between the two sides.

The former is caused by 20+ years of recruiting players for ā€œupsideā€ where kicking skills were not valued whereas the Hawks recruiting clearly targets players who are really good kicks - Amon, D’Ambrosio (who was very quiet) for example.

The latter is caused by the Hawks having a tactically much more astute coach than Essendon has - Scott has brought great stability to our club and help rid the club of Dodoro. But his tactical nous leaves a lot to be desired.

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No.

It’s the post of somebody who has nearly doubled in age since the last taste of success and now knows better to ā€˜trust’ a team and club when there are actually zero signs or justification to do so.

I trust them….to be mid table again.

Top 4 or bottom 4 is the hope without justification.

Another excellent review. Thank you very much.

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that’s ok , no worries

i get told on here that disposal efficiency is a stat that means nothing and anyone quoting it should be banned

We both know you were hurt by high expectations and optimism last year. @Odoyle is right.

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Certainly feels like it …

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I like Brad Scott, but he needs to be called out for this result.

Every good team in the AFL plays with 3+ small forwards at a minimum in order to ensure forward pressure and stop back half transition.

We lined up against the best team from half back in the game with ONE small forward (playing his first game).

The hawks just walked the ball out of our 50 again and destroyed us, despite us winning every other key stat on the ground. It only stopped a little when we brought on Gresham in the second half. What a joke!

Scott is so stubborn with this tall line up, it needs to be called out as it costs us so many games last season and nothing is changing this year.

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I said to a mate if we dont cough up a 5 goal lead in the 1st quarter we will win.

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There’s still a lack of cohesion and trust with our contested possession / congestion / clearance wins. Too many get sucked in too close , trying to be helpful and at the contest but it means that the handball receive never actually clears the pressured area’s . Similarly, the guys who are willing to take the extra half second to evaluate and find the better option usually aren’t the ones actually winning the footy to start with. So we get instinctive, rapid offloads to players who aren’t in any better position to do something with it. It’s not effort. It’s talent and system. The second of those can improve substantially even with just one or two players who can be relied on to put others into meaningful space. And it becomes circular. If the opposition have to worry about those on the outside more often, the coal face players face less numbers too.

We need a couple of good kicks who can spread from the contest and the side will look exponentially better because I really do think that we have some inside players of genuine capability both now , and coming through. At the moment, our clearances are too often the blind kick forward, or the predictable handball backwards.

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The condition of the ground was a disgrace. I thought we got away from playing in cow paddocks. The game the night before had players constantly slipping over.

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Not a sentence I thought I’d ever read.

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I’ve got a few Hawks supporting colleagues at work who messaged me just to say they were surprised at how good we looked.

One said that 20 minute period in the first cost us the game really.

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Tell them to watch last nights 1st Quarter and they might realise that that both DE% and Turnovers, taken to together, mean much more than any other combination of stats when it comes to the scoreboard.

I bristled, watching Scott’s post match press conference when he said he looked at his screen in Q3 and nearly all the indicators are green.

I’d say he is missing two indicators that were flashing bright red and explained why the scoreboard was the way it was.

Look at Thursday night’s game where the tiger’s won by 13 points:

  • they won DE% by a whopping 8.1% but had an amazing 11 more turnovers. they got walloped on I50s and contested possession. What did the scoreboard say?

You can have an artificially high DE% if you’re a team that simply chips the ball around your D50 endlessly. I guess that’s where it can be misleading. But using the ball much better than your opponents - like we saw in the tigers vs Bluers game, overcomes a lot of deficiencies.

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Blaming fans is a pretty mediocre act.

Problem with our back 6 is that they are all third man up types. None of them are good one on one defenders and need support. McKay was meant to be that one on one lock down defender but he can probably only do that on the big monster forwards at best.

Now I’ve relaxed, looked at some replays and stats, and such things I’m ok with that game.
My one eye for Essendon expects us to smash everyone by ten goals plus every game, however its good to taste reality early and have no great expectations.
My take aways are-
Prior needs one or two more games only, or is dropped to find form in VFL.
Kako makes opposition defenders worried.
Caldwell is a beast and thank god GWS molded him early.
Load mackay into Elons next rocket.
Zach is a superstar and I dont blame him if he bails one day to have a cack at a flag.
Im not drinking the Kool aid for Reid yet.
I love Durham
I’m still suspicous on limpdick Brad and his actual value as a coach.

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My thoughts too

Stick a fork in us. We are done. The ā– ā– ā– ā– ā– ā– ā–  here that want draft picks, well theyre coming in spades this year cos we suck.
Training must be a ā– ā– ā– ā– ā– ā– ā–  funny to watch.