Yep, but it wasn’t an actual action by Iran like a Russian missile strike would be…
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6.23.22 Update, day 120 of Russian invasion.
Belarus:
Belarusian armed forces continue to maneuver along the border region with Ukraine. The current exercises are in Gomel region, and are projected to last until July 1.
Kyiv/ West Ukraine (1):
Zelenskyy is looking to replace Ivan Bakanov, his long time friend who now runs Ukraine’s SBU intel agency, with someone more suitable to serve as the wartime chief after the failures around defense of Kherson. There has long been some satisfaction with this appointment, and allegations of nepotism surrounded his appointment.
This is not the only fallout from the RU seizure of Kherson, where numerous defense plans were not carried out.
Gen. Serhiy Kryvoruchko, head of Kherson’s SBU directorate, ordered his officers to evacuate the city before Russian troops stormed it, against Zelenskyy’s orders.
Meanwhile, Col. Ihor Sadokhin, his assistant and head of the local office’s Anti-Terrorist Center, is alleged by authorities to have tipped off Russian forces heading north from Crimea about the locations of Ukrainian mines and helped coordinate a flight path for the enemy’s aircraft while he fled in a convoy of SBU agents going west. Investigations are ongoing into both of these officers plus one more who fled the country a few hours before the invasion, and is now in Serbian custody.
The SBU is nearly the size of the US FBI with 35,000 people, and 7 times the size of UK MI5, despite the fact that Ukraine has considerably less population then either.
Sumy/Chernihiv (2):
In addition to the 3 BTG’s of armor and VDV forces along the Sumy region border, the RU forces have brought to bear their S-300V4 AA system, one of the newest long range anti-air systems in their arsenal. The presence of this system would cover the air defenses for all of the RU units currently arranged along the border, as well as work to “pin” some of the UA defenders in the region due to the increase in air defenses alongside the harassing fires from Russia.
Alternatively, this system could allow for increased operations of RU pilots in a less-contested space then further east, and as a result give them “live fire training” before being rotated into action.
N Kharkiv (3):
RU forces continued to shell along the front, with isolated shelling in in Zolochiv , Slatyne, and Ruska Lozova. There were overnight strikes today on the suburban areas of Kharkiv in Derhachi, where a power station was damaged rendering the city depowered, and in the Saltivka and SE industrial district of Kharkiv
At least 1 long-range MLRS system is being utilized in these shellings, ranging from NW of Kharkiv to Chuhuiv.
There was heavy firing in Ruskiy Tyshky today, N of Kharkiv where a pair of RU units appear to be making preparations for an assault further south to Rushky Tyshky, along the NE highway from Kharkiv. The 200th Motorized rifle SMRB was reportedly an elite unit, but had their CO killed at the end of march, and reportedly took massive losses at the same time.
The other unit involved is more interesting, being the 99th Self propelled artillery unit, under the command of Col Arkady Korolkov, who has 20+ years of experience including Chechnya and other post-soviet conflicts. He is reportedly known for his willingness to engage in “danger close” artillery strikes immediately before and during assaults by ground forces. He is the deputy commander for the Moscow Military District’s missile forces and artillery. This is likely one of the main men responsible for the strikes in and around Kharkiv.
Per UA MoD, the RU goal is to interdict UA forces to prevent UA from targeting supply lines, both along the international border towards Kozazcha Lopan and more crucially on the NE side of the Donets, around Vovchansk and areas south.
RU forces appear to have cleared UA forces from the E bank of the Donets river near Stariy Saltiv, or at the very least pushed them back to the bridge/dam crossing. The presence of heavy artillery strikes on the W bank of the river further indicates that UA forces may have been pushed to withdraw from their push towards RU supply lines in Vovchansk and further east.
Projection:
RU units will seek to clear the E bank of Donets near Stariy Saltiv, reinforce their positions in Rubizhne to prevent UA menacing of Vovchansk with artillery, and may launch assaults from Lyptsi>Rusku Tyshky, potentially with immediate preceding use of danger close artillery fires generated from SPG and MLRS.
Izyum (4):
RU forces did not take major action towards Slovyansk, while they have escalated the volume of rocket artillery fire in order to make preparations for yet another push towards Slovyansk.
Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions at Dolyna and Bohorodychne, along the M03 highway towards Slovyansk. This attack was repelled. The front here has followed a pattern for the last several weeks- days of preparation of RU units coupled with softening fires from artillery and MLRS, followed by a ground assault that is repelled by UA, cycle repeats.
RU forces have reportedly brought 2 tank units into Izyum, along with TOS-1 thermobaric launcher systems in preparation for further assaults. In this area, RU reportedly has deployed units from the 1st Guards Tank Army, the 20th, 29th, and 35th Combined Arms Armies, 68th Army Corps, and some VDV forces.
A KA-52 modern RU gunship was shot down somewhere near Izyum today.
Lyman (4):
There was no change around Lyman, where RU forces continue to consolidate for possible operations across the river into Raihorodok.
Severodonetsk/Lysyschansk (5):
Fighting continues in the urban residential areas of Severodonetsk, where RU forces have established round the clock aerial surveillance via UAV and other methods. Fierce artillery duels persist overhead as counter-battery fires commence following artillery missions in SVD proper. RU forces are within tube artillery range of southern Lysychansk from the Ustynivka breakthrough, further complicating matters.
The local UA government stated that UA forces may be forced to retreat from Lysychansk or Severodonetsk in order to avoid encirclement threatened by the latest breakthrough to the S by RU forces. Additionally, it was stated that UA defenses in the W industrial district have been destroyed in large numbers, and UA forces may withdraw across the river or to more defensible positions further west.
Footage emerged today of how UA forces are still able to get across the river, despite the bridges being blown. I can confirm that its legit footage, but would rather not discuss the ways and means.
It is important to reiterate that the goal for Severodonetsk especially was to degrade RU forces and buy time for heavier weaponry to arrive, not to necessarily retake the whole city. The Russians have deployed essentially all readily available reserves into the Severodonetsk/Popasna operation.
RU sources claim to have entered into the southern industrial district of Lysychansk, but thus far this remains unconfirmed. The UK confirmed that RU forces and artillery are at least within 5km of Lysychansk, and thus able to further menace UA troops, artillery, and supply lines without committing to large scale river crossings. UA General staff stated that the advance was stopped on the southern outskirts of Lysychansk, and provided some photos of destroyed Russian equipment.
We are seeing increased usage of Wagner Group PMC and Rosgvardia national guard troops in the urban combat, further indicating the heavy degradation of RU mainline forces in the region. RU also deployed another of their modern S300V4 Anti-air batteries, with the apparent attempt to further control the local airspace and degrade UA drones and aircraft around Severodonetsk. There has been a marked lack of UA bayraktar drone missions in recent days and weeks, possibly spurred on by increased electronic warfare and capable AA system deployment on Russia behalf.
As of time of reporting, apparently the order has been given to withdraw from Severodonetsk back into Lysychansk for Ukrainian forces. Watch this location for additional updates.
Popasna/Bakhmut:
RU forces continue to advance from the Popasna front towards Lysychansk, from the Toshkivkha/Ustynivka breakthrough,
RU forces have reportedly brought 1 more BTG to reinforce the assault towards Lysychansk, along the P-66 highway. This BTG was brought from the Central Military District, or the units surrounding the Moscow area.
RU forces successfully captured areas near the front lines in the town of Mykolaivka, and have deployed artillery and airstrikes to attack towards Bakhmut. Currently, it appears that UA forces fully withdrew from the southern position, and UA forces hold territory ranging from Berestove along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, to the town of Vovhoyarivka, and finally over towards Bila hora and the outskirts of Lysychansk.
The highway from Bakhmut to Lysychansk is “impassable” per the UA government, and states that UA forces are using alternate routes of supply.
Donetsk (6):
The intensity of RU shelling persists along the front line N of Donetsk city, with RU forces attempting a push towards Myronivka towards the Coal power plant there of Uglehirskaya. This attack was repelled, as was apparently other RU attacks along the front line that happened in concert. Overall, the RU offensive out of Donetsk city appears to not be making significant progress, with RU forces reportedly ceasing offensive operations towards Marinka to the W after numerous failed attempts.
Mariupol (7):
Russian forces are moving large columns of military equipment from Mariupol to Berdyansk and Polohy, likely to reinforce positions in Zaporizhia Oblast to defend against both Ukrainian partisan activity and counterattacks.
Zaporizhia/Southern Axis (8):
RU forces continue to leverage artillery and rocket fire across the front, but attempted no offensive actions otherwise. It appears that RU may have a lack of experienced forces and inadequate replacement equipment.
RU forces have recently increased their long-range rocket artillery fires against civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhia region. There is also an unconfirmed video of a RU soldier in RU occupied territory casually firing RPG’s into the windows of civilian dwellings for no apparent reason.
There are unspecified reports of a battle south of Vuhledar, where UA forces are attempting to push towards Yehorivka. This is very generally in the direction of Mariupol and Volnovakha.
Kherson (9):
RU forces continue to fight via counter-battery fire along the front line, but have been unable to constitute enough forces for a counteroffensive or to launch assaults with the forces they currently have.
An RU special forces unit tried to break into the rear of UA positions near Kherson, but were intercepted and killed.
UA aviation launched 5 air strikes, eliminating 44 soldiers, 2 artillery guns, and several armored vehicles, as well as a command and control center. RU forces attempted to deploy additional artillery systems to menace Mykolaivka, but were met with counter battery fire.
The mass “passportization” of the residents of the Kherson region proved so unsuccessful that the occupying authorities resorted to forcible issuance of documents to prisoners, to keep their metrics up for reporting back to Moscow.
Odessa/Black Sea/Transnistria (10):
Reportedly in the black sea, there are 4 missile ships equipped with 40 Kaliber cruise missiles, as well as 3 troop transports. The threats of the sea mines drifting after recent storms continues, and in general the rough seas have hampered RU naval movements.
Russian forces are deploying a detachment consisting of air defense and rocket group units, a boat group, and special forces to Snake Island in response to recent Ukrainian strikes directly against Snake Island
General:
Today, 23 June, at the EU Summit, 27 member states voted to give Ukraine and Moldova candidate status for EU membership.
The United States is announcing an additional $ 450 million in military assistance for Ukraine, including 4 HIMARS systems, tens of thousands of ammunition for artillery that has already been delivered to Ukraine, as well as patrol ships to protect the Ukrainian coast and waterways. Since February 24, the United States has provided Ukraine with $ 6.1 billion in defense assistance
Looking forward:
The UA withdrawal from Severodonetsk will likely proceed as a fighting defense, as its unlikely the order would be publicly announced before the troops begin to move.
It is unclear what the outcomes will be from the RU offensive towards the SE of Lysychansk
The ongoing UA offensive along the front lines of Kherson, including now the NW portion, will likely force RU units further NE from the city to withdraw towards closer defenses around the city, and thus shrink the frontline. The fact that UA forces are within artillery range of the city proper will likely motivate RU forces to withdraw more.
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I would think that a missile strike on the US embassy would be seen as an act of War by the Americans.
Some comments from Redditors:
“Masters of diplomacy.”
“It’s Putin’s standard operating procedure to let radicals bark in the Duma and state media, so that he can appear as the moderate and rational one.”
“That’s not diplomacy. That’s a message targeted for domestic vatniks who after they hear it on tv will think they are the greatest while guzzling vodka. As much as they hate Ukraine their hate boner towards US is even stronger.”
“I hope Biden announces more HIMARS are being sent.”
“Yes. Just helped the US justify Anti aircraft and anti missile defense for all of the Capitol.”
Meanwhile, the bloke who once carried the nuclear codes around for Putin has been found shot in his apartment.
Some weird things continue to happen within Russia.
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If they launched a missile attack the US would 100% retaliate and I hope they do swiftly and brutally
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US Embassy in Kyiv reopened on 18 May, when the US flag was raised over the building. Some staff have returned, but with additional security measures for them, the premises could well be vacant except for guards.
In times of conflict, the US traditionally has secure locations elsewhere.
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That was smoothly done. Fast. Hope they already have the HEMTT hauling, railway/road trains, sealifts underway for ammo hauling…
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Spectacular!
Full U turn to destroy the launcher!
Impressive as sabotage. Implausible as accident.
Edit add:
Even if the commanders are unsophisticated, one could hardly doubt the sophistication of saboteurs 
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wondering if the “105mm” is a typo or if they do have 105mm systems.
Probably meant 155mm
The kiwis were over in the UK recently training Ukrainians on stockpiled English 105mm light artillery. I think it’s the same type of guns we used before the M777 and still have in storage somewhere.
Impressive. Any news about targets and successfully hitting them?
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right, we still have some of those but probably all broken.
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Yes . the press release must be a typo:
Briefing afterwards makes it clear (without correcting the typo):
MR. KIRBY: Thank you. Okay, just off the top here, I think today you saw that the United States announced another additional $450 million worth of security assistance to Ukraine as part of our commitment to help Ukraine defend its democracy in the face of unprovoked Russian aggression.
This package contains weapons and equipment, including new High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, tens of thousands of additional rounds of ammunition for the artillery systems that have already been provided as well, and patrol boats to help Ukraine defend its coast and its waterways.
(emphasis added)
Edit fixed wrong link:
Hmm. I now think they did supply 105mm artillery before, in which case probably was not a typo. Sorry for any confusion @elfm
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