The fascinating, tragic and compelling backstory of Mamuka Mamulashvili, Commander of the Georgian Legion. (Warning: Some Graphic Content)
1 Like
6.24.22 Update, day 121 of Russian invasion.
Belarus:
Belarusian armed forces continue to maneuver along the border region with Ukraine. The current exercises are in Gomel region, and are projected to last until July 1. A ban on visiting forests has been introduced near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, by the UA government.
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GRU) reported that Russian sabotage groups and mercenaries arrived in Mozyr, Belarus, to commit false-flag bombings on apartment buildings and civilian infrastructure around the city.
Kyiv/ West Ukraine (1):
The Ukrainian Navy is reportedly creating a river flotilla on the Dnipro river, with at least 19 boats. There are reports of additional small water craft being sent to Ukraine from NATO allies, and the initial goal of this riverbourne forces will initially be to counter any Belarusian-based river forces.
Sumy/Chernihiv (2):
RU forces continue to consolidate themselves along the border, and shelled the small town of Boiaro-Lezhachi.
There has been an increase in arson attacks towards RU recruitment centers in Belgorod region, and reportedly Belgorod Police are searching for a number of RU defectors.
N Kharkiv (3):
RU forces continued to shell along the front, with isolated shelling in in Zolochiv, Slatyne, and Dementievka. Two ballistic missiles were also launched into the suburbs of Kharkiv.
RU continues to reinforce its supply lines from Russia through Vovchansk>Kupyansk in order to maintain logistics to the Izyum/Lyman axis.
RU has also continued fire missions towards Stariy Saltiv, and appears to be walking their fire inland ever slightly. Given the small number of UA units operating E of the Siversky Donets river, it appears that RU forces have managed to clear the eastern bank of the river in totality.
Izyum/Lyman (4):
Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions at Dolyna and Bohorodychne, along the M03 highway towards Slovyansk. This attack was repelled.
RU forces are additionally focusing on the towns of Kurulka and Virnopillya, with apparent aim to drive SW towards Barvinkove again. These attacks today were repelled.
RU forces between Lyman and Izyum are reported to not have sufficient mass to attack Kramatorsk or Slovyansk, but their continued shelling of the Slovyansk/Lysychansk highway indicates they may attempt to swing E and further menace supplies to Lysychansk.
Another RU SU-25 Close air support aircraft was shot down by a MANPADS launcher somewhere near Izyum.
RU forces deployed a long-range Uragan MLRS battalion NW of Lyman, with range of 35km being able to hit both Siversk along the Slovyansk-Lysychansk highway, and also fire into Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Additional air-dropped mines have been fired by RU forces today.
Severodonetsk/Lysyschansk (5):
UA forces began to withdraw from Severodonetsk overnight, in advance by several hours of when the public statement was made. UA forces that were on the most bleeding edge, well behind RU lines were able to withdraw by this time, indicating that UA units who were in more favorable positions are likely similarly able to evacuate. Reportedly this is a coordinated fighting withdrawal. RU is likely to declare victory over the destroyed city in coming days, but due to the destruction of infrastructure over the river, unlikely to attempt further ground assaults into Lysychansk.
Ukrainian troops are occupying positions on elevated terrain in Lysychansk, which may allow them to repel Russian attacks for some time if the main line of contact remains on the south.
RU forces continued air strikes on the SE of Severodonetsk and shelled the industrial areas, indicating that UA forces may still be present in the city.
RU 3-star General Aleksandr Lapin was visualized to the E of Severodonetsk, and is believed to be in region to lend credence to RU propaganda efforts in the aftermath of securing Severodonetsk.
In Lysychansk, RU forces have increasingly utilized air strikes and artillery to damage road and bridge infrastructure into the city, from the SE direction near Bila Hora. Currently only small cars can pass over the main road bridges into Lysychansk, heavier equipment and trucks cannot. However, there are other opportunities to bring aid into the city, and new ones are being developed
Popasna/Bakhmut:
RU forces continue to advance from the Popasna front towards Lysychansk, from the Toshkivkha/Ustynivka breakthrough, and there has been very heavy all along the front line from Berestove to Vovhoyarivka, to Berestove. RU forces are confirmed to have captured Mykolaivka and Loskutivka, and there are mixed reports of RU attempts to rush into the SE of Lysychansk and being repelled.
With the heaviest shelling across the whole front line on the Popasna-Lysychansk front in several weeks recorded, it remains to be seen what the outcome will be.
RU forces continue to shell towards Bakhmut, but the general thrust remains to menace/take the highway leading into Lysychansk, rather then attacking further west into Bakhmut itself.
Currently there is ongoing fighting in Vovchoyarivka, after a failed UA counter-offensive S of the town along the front line. The situation remains unclear.
Donetsk (6):
The intensity of RU shelling persists along the front line N of Donetsk city, with RU forces attempting a push towards Myronivka towards the Coal power plant there of Uglehirskaya. Otherwise, it appears that RU lacks the forces required to conduct large scale offensives towards Avdiivka.
A RU SAM missile system in the RU controlled region of the E Donbas was videotaped with one of its missiles doing a 180 degree turn after launch and attempting to target the launching system. While apparently it landed just short in the field, the fact that RU SAM systems are capable of such a grievous “return to sender” event, does not spark confidence in RU AA systems.
A Senior Wagner Group PMC officer, Illya Mazay, responsible for an anti-air missile detachment, was reported killed via unspecified measures today.
Mariupol (7):
Russian occupiers in Mariupol began construction of a medical complex for 60 people, much of which was set aside for the morgue. There continues to be concerns for a public health catastrophe in the city.
Zaporizhia/Southern Axis (8):
RU forces continue to leverage artillery and rocket fire across the front, but attempted no offensive actions otherwise. It appears that RU may have a lack of experienced forces and inadequate replacement equipment. RU forces are attempting to focus artillery against UA logistics and supply hubs. The goal appears to prevent reinforcement to other more active fronts to the east.
There are unspecified reports of RU units retreating from first-line defensive positions in the face of a UA counter-offensive along the southern front.
RU is currently trying to de-mine the port of Berdyansk, in order to use it for logistical purposes.
Its reported that RU forces in occupied areas are using local databases to identify and kidnap relatives of current-serving UA military personnel, predominantly children, women, and elderly individuals. After this, servicemen are contacted and told they need to surrender to RU units in exchange for the safety of their family. This is predominantly happening along the southern front. 20,000 people have gone missing in Ukraine since the Russian invasion started. About 10,000 have been located.
Kherson (9):
RU forces continue to fight via counter-battery fire along the front line, but have been unable to constitute enough forces for a counteroffensive or to launch assaults with the forces they currently have.
Approximately half of the RU forces along the NE section of front line near Vysokopillya reportedly retreated to the SW, after a sustained UA counter-offensive aimed at shrinking the RU positions to the NE of the city.
Another RU collaborator was assassinated today in his vehicle in Kherson city.
A 75-year old reporter from Kherson who evacuated into UA controlled territory was badly beaten by RU forces, and commented that the Soviets she reported on treated Afghan citizens better in the 80’s then RU forces treat Ukrainian citizens today, especially in regards to violence against children.
Odessa/Black Sea/Transnistria (10):
Reportedly in the black sea, there are 2 missile ships equipped with up to 20 Kaliber cruise missiles, as well as 1 troop transport, while the rest have pulled back to safe harbor after the heavy storms have passed through the area. The threats of the sea mines drifting after recent storms continues, and in general the rough seas have hampered RU naval movements.
RU propagandists are currently trying to spread rumors of mass Cholera outbreaks in Odesa.
General:
Yesterday, Ukrainian forces eliminated:
100x soldiers (Total 34,530)
3x tanks
5x APC
4x Artillery (1x MLRS)
1x Helicopter
2x UAV
5x vehicles
Moldova, having been approved for EU membership candidate status, is joining the EU sanctions against Russia.
4 of the M142 HIMARS systems are reportedly in Ukraine, and another 4 sent by USA will be in country by mid july per the US DoD. Video footage emerged from Ukrainian channels alleging the use of HIMARS systems at an undisclosed location.
Across the front line, RU artillery may use up to 1,000 shells in an hour, per UA gov officials. Its reported that the practical ratio of UA to RU artillery is 1:10, and RU has functionally unlimited shells from its massive stockpiles.
Canada passed a bill for a two-year ban on the purchase of housing by foreign nationals, as well as the right to confiscate/sell the assets of Russians frozen on its territory and transfer them to Ukraine.
Ukrainians have raised 20 million USD to purchase 4 Bayraktar TB-2 drones, in only 3 days. Last time this was done to purchase one, the Bayraktar Company essentially comped the drone and used the money for other assets and ammo. It remains to be seen if that occurs again.
Today the EU approved “further financial assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 9 billion Euros.”
Looking forward:
The UA withdrawal from Severodonetsk will likely proceed as a fighting defense, as its unlikely the order would be publicly announced before the troops begin to move.
It is unclear what the outcomes will be from the RU offensive towards the SE of Lysychansk, as unless RU forces encircle the city fully, there are several defensible positions.
The ongoing UA offensive along the front lines of Kherson, including now the NW portion, will likely force RU units further NE from the city to withdraw towards closer defenses around the city, and thus shrink the frontline. The fact that UA forces are within artillery range of the city proper will likely motivate RU forces to withdraw more.
1 Like
The US is supplying 18 riverine boats, including a mixture of pleasure craft, patrol boats and 2 military small unit riverine craft (SURC)
SURC capacity explained in
globalsecurity.org
2 Likes
1 Like
The Empire, Long Divided, Must Unite; Long United, Must Divide
Russia’s republics, bled dry by Putin, begin to demand independence from his rule (inews.co.uk)
3 Likes
@Albert_Thurgood supply dump hit that was either MLRS or a Tochka missile.
3 Likes
The US is getting the Love Boat going again?
2 Likes
“For over 30 years, his career has been dogged by allegations of corruption and brutality”
“dogged”? In Russia, that is a feature, not a bug, and is probably the main reason he rose through the ranks.
4 Likes
3 Likes
Re: Putin’s bottomless wallet / Gazprom
2 Likes
122nd Day of the War and Ukraine’s air force fights on
2 Likes
1 Like
7 Likes
Here is the full, brilliant pep talk. There is obviously a lot of Domestic conjecture/brouhaha in Ukraine about the work to be done to join the EU and how long it will take. IMHO This speech is quite simply the work of a master communicator.
Form is Temporary. Class is Permanent
4 Likes
High value first MLRS strike.
1 Like
with the better NATO weapons now slowly reaching Ukraine what’s the range difference v what the Russians have?
Sure is! Also the voice of a world outlook that is deeply threatening to Tsarist fascism and resonates deeply in the rest of the world, with possible implications for future political developments in the West too.
2 Likes
MLRS has a range of 70km.
PzH 2000 and other high end NATO artillery have a range of 30km with standard shells and 67km with rocket assisted shells.
Russia has weapons that can fire that far, but with nowhere near the accuracy. A Russian MLRS strike over that range relies on mass volume of projectiles to hopefully hit the target by pure luck. NATO weapons can hit a target with 5m accuracy, so are far less ammo hungry.
The longer range conventional artillery like CAESAR and PzH 2000 can be effective counter battery weapons. They can outrange the Russians or get close and protect themselves with fire and move tactics.
The MLRS will be used on supply and command targets. Russian guns need an enormous amount of ammunition each day. Eliminating the ammo before it arrives at the front means the Russian guns become useless. Consistent supply strikes will force Russia to distribute their supplies, which will be less efficient at moving tonnage and deliver less stuff to the front.
8 Likes
1 Like
1 Like