Russia invades Ukraine - 2 - from 4 May 2022

Interesting link!

Also an interesting dialectical flourish in the quote from one of Mao’s favourite classical Chinese novels:

Both remind me of Lenin “On the National Pride of the Great Russians” and its great relevance to the current war waged by Tsar Putin against the peoples of the Ruscist empire:

Is a sense of national pride alien to us, Great-Russian class-conscious proletarians? Certainly not! We love our language and our country, and we are doing our very utmost to raise her toiling masses (i.e., nine-tenths of her population) to the level of a democratic and socialist consciousness. To us it is most painful to see and feel the outrages, the oppression and the humiliation our fair country suffers at the hands of the tsar’s butchers, the nobles and the capitalists. We take pride in the resistance to these outrages put up from our midst, from the Great Russians; in that midst having produced Radishchev,[3] the Decembrists[4] and the revolutionary commoners of the seventies[5]; in the Great-Russian working class having created, in 1905, a mighty revolutionary party of the masses; and in the Great-Russian peasantry having begun to turn towards democracy and set about overthrowing the clergy and the landed proprietors.

We remember that Chernyshevsky, the Great-Russian democrat, who dedicated his life to the cause of revolution, said half a century ago: “A wretched nation, a nation of slaves, from top to bottom—all slaves."[6] The overt and covert Great-Russian slaves (slaves with regard to the tsarist monarchy) do not like to recall these words. Yet, in our opinion, these were words of genuine love for our country, a love distressed by the absence of a revolutionary spirit in the masses of the Great-Russian people. There was none of that spirit at the time. There is little of it now, but it already exists. We are full of national pride because the Great-Russian nation, too , has created a revolutionary class, because it, too , has proved capable of providing mankind with great models of the struggle for freedom and socialism, and not only with great pogroms, rows of gallows, dungeons, great famines and great servility to priests, tsars, landowners and capitalists.

We are full of a sense of national pride, and for that very reason we particularly hate our slavish past (when the landed nobility led the peasants into war to stifle the freedom of Hungary, Poland, Persia and China), and our slavish present, when these selfsame landed proprietors, aided by the capitalists, are loading us into a war in order to throttle Poland and the Ukraine, crush the democratic movement in Persia and China, and strengthen the gang of Romanovs, Bobrinskys and Purishkeviches, who are a disgrace to our Great-Russian national dignity. Nobody is to be blamed for being born a slave; but a slave who not only eschews a striving for freedom but justifies and eulogises his slavery (e.g., calls the throttling of Poland and the Ukraine, etc., a “defence of the fatherland” of the Great Russians)—such a slave is a lickspittle and a boor, who arouses a legitimate feeling of indignation, contempt, and loathing.

"No nation can be free if it oppresses other nations,” said Marx and Engels, the greatest representatives of consistent nineteenth century democracy, who became the teachers of the revolutionary proletariat. And, full of a sense of national pride, we Great-Russian workers want, come what may, a free and independent, a democratic, republican and proud Great Russia, one that will base its relations with its neighbours on the human principle of equality, and not on the feudalist principle of privilege, which is so degrading to a great nation. Just because we want that, we say: it is impossible, in the twentieth century and in Europe (even in the far east of Europe), to “defend the fatherland” otherwise than by using every revolutionary means to combat the monarchy, the landowners and the capitalists of one’s own fatherland, i.e., the worst enemies of our country. We say that the Great Russians cannot “defend the fatherland” otherwise than by desiring the defeat of tsarism in any war, this as the lesser evil to nine-tenths of the inhabitants of Great Russia. For tsarism not only oppresses those nine-tenths economically and politically, but also demoralises, degrades, dishonours and prostitutes them by teaching them to oppress other nations and to cover up this shame with hypocritical and quasi-patriotic phrases.

The objection may be advanced that, besides tsarism and under its wing, another historical force has arisen and become strong, viz., Great-Russian capitalism, which is carrying on progressive work by economically centralising and welding together vast regions. This objection, however, does not excuse, but on the contrary still more condemns our socialist-chauvinists, who should be called tsarist-Purishkevich socialists[7] (just as Marx called the Lassalleans Royal-Prussian socialists).[8] Let us even assume that history will decide in favour of Great-Russian dominant-nation capitalism, and against the hundred and one small nations. That is not impossible, for the entire history of capital is one of violence and plunder, blood and corruption. We do not advocate preserving small nations at all costs; other conditions being equal , we are decidedly for centralisation and are opposed to the petty-bourgeois ideal of federal relationships. Even if our assumption were true, however, it is, firstly, not our business, or that of democrats (let alone of socialists), to help Romanov-Bobrinsky-Purishkevich throttle the Ukraine, etc. In his own Junker fashion, Bismarck accomplished a progressive historical task, but he would be a fine “Marxist” indeed who, on such grounds, thought of justifying socialist support for Bismarck! Moreover, Bismarck promoted economic development by bringing together the disunited Germans, who were being oppressed by other nations. The economic prosperity and rapid development of Great Russia, however, require that the country be liberated from Great-Russian oppression of other nations—that is the difference that our admirers of the true-Russian would-be Bismarcks overlook.

Secondly, if history were to decide in favour of Great Russian dominant-nation capitalism, it follows hence that the socialist role of the Great-Russian proletariat, as the principal driving force of the communist revolution engendered by capitalism, will be all the greater. The proletarian revolution calls for a prolonged education of the workers in the spirit of the fullest national equality and brotherhood. Consequently, the interests of the Great-Russian proletariat require that the masses be systematically educated to champion—most resolutely, consistently, boldly and in a revolutionary manner—complete equality and the right to self-determination for all the nations oppressed by the Great Russians. The interests of the Great Russians’ national pride (understood, not in the slavish sense) coincide with the socialist interests of the Great-Russian (and all other) proletarians. Our model will always be Marx, who, after living in Britain for decades and becoming half-English, demanded freedom and national independence for Ireland in the interests of the socialist movement of the British workers.

In the second hypothetical case we have considered, our home-grown socialist-chauvinists, Plekhanov, etc., etc., will prove traitors, not only to their own country—a free and democratic Great Russia, but also to the proletarian brotherhood of all the nations of Russia, i.e., to the cause of socialism.

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Yes, 三国演义 (The Romance of the Three Kingdoms) is one of the four classics of Chinese Literature and a masterpiece in its scale and scope.
The Empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been.
With these first lines, the definitive - and very Taoist - statement of the inevitable cycle of Chinese history, the monumental tale begins. As important for Chinese culture as the Homeric epics are in the West, this Ming dynasty masterpiece continues to be read and loved throughout China, as well as Japan, Korea and Vietnam to this day.

I have not read much Lenin but his words here are prescient, to say the least.

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Fascinating account from Aerozvikda itself with punchline at 47’0" near end:

It’s a new unique format of interaction between civil society and state.

In a normal situation, in a peace situation an NGO can’t be a part of this process. But now we can have some impact in providing innovation in our area. Without hesitation we can say that we are one of the most powerful locomotive of innovations in our aims.

So why shouldn’t a football club discussion forum also contribute some innovations?

Youtube page also includes link to their web site with more videos and news stories and contact for donations:

At about 41’ jokes that they are now trying to implement NATO standards but when Ukraine wins perhaps NATO will be updating their standards based on Ukraine’s experience.

At around 21’ confirms the importance of upgrading EW countermeasures. Currently losing dozens of drones per day (or rather “expending” like bullets - expendables).

Not mentioned, but my assessment is that this confirms Ruscists were witholding advanced EW capabilities from their proxies in Donetsk and Luhansk from 2014 and also in the initial battle of Kyiv they had still not been released because they were still:

wartime reserve modes — Characteristics and operating procedures of sensor,
communications, navigation aids, threat recognition, weapons, and countermeasures
systems that will contribute to military effectiveness if unknown to, or misunderstood
by, opposing commanders before they are used but could be exploited or neutralized if
known in advance. Also called WARMs. (JP 3-85)

My view is that increasingly advanced EW capabilities will continue to be released on the Ruscist side as needed. But they are currently held back as WARMs because simple EW measures are taking down dozens of drones each day.

At about 24’ mentions that they have the largest database of images of Ruscist equipment outside Russia and are doing AI work on image recognition to feed target identification directly from drone to the “Delta” situational awareness system.

Starlink allows the Ukrainian teams to communicate and share intelligence with each other even in very rural parts of the country.

The Ukrainian military also employs the Delta intelligence system, which includes “situational awareness” software that generates an interactive map integrating drone data, satellites, sensors, and human sources so that the Russian invaders can be tracked.

The Delta system was put to the test last year, according to The Telegraph, during the Sea Breeze military exercise in the Black Sea last year, which included the US, Ukraine, and 30 other Countries.

Ukraine’s military has been bolstered by Western nations, which supplied radio communication equipment that surpassed the Soviet-era technology used by the Russians.

The Delta system may be accessed remotely using basic laptops. Ukraine, however, was concerned that Russia’s continued assaults on Ukraine’s telecommunications infrastructure would render the intelligence system useless.

According to a report from The Times newspaper:

Aerorozvidka uses an advanced NATO-supported intelligence system, Delta, which pulls together information from various sources including satellites and drone reconnaissance to precisely identify targets.

Training with Delta was announced by Ukraine Defence Intelligence in May 2019:

https://gur.gov.ua/en/content/viiskovi-rozvidnyky-opanovuiut-systemu-delta.html

Interestingly there was a “Delta” contract that implements NATO video standards announced 15 September 2020:

Textron Systems has awarded Delta Digital Video a contract to supply the Model 6805R HD/SD Video Encoder for use in the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) technology modernization of the U.S. Army’s fleet of Shadow® RQ-7B Tactical Unmanned Aircraft Systems (TUAS) which are produced for the U.S. Army by Textron Systems.

The RQ-7 shadow system delivered the highest precision situational awareness for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions and force protection for U.S. Army and Special Forces units in near real-time, day or night, and in limited adverse weather conditions.

Delta Digital Video’s Model 6805R is a rugged, compact, and low-power unit engineered for size, weight and power (SWaP) optimization to meet the RQ-7 Shadow aircraft’s unique and emerging requirements. The Model 6805R supports encoding of SDI and composite video formats with resolutions up to 1080p, and multiplexes them with synchronous and asynchronous metadata and other vital system information for real-time transmission and recording. The Model 6805R is fully compliant with MISB/STANAG/JITC standards and profiles ensuring seamless integration with downstream processing, exploitation, and dissemination (PED) systems.

BTW that NATO compatible system only implements H.264 codec for video compression. The more advanced H.265 included with Xilink Zync Ultrascale+ compresses twice as much. Perhaps the compression algorithms themselves would do a significant amount of feature extraction. Australian Navy also using “Delta”.

An example datasheet of a South African hand held situational awareness display is linked here:

Much more very interesting detail about the Aerozvikda work, including target recognition AI in this google translation:

That article expresses some surprise at mention of space program. I would assume that is just a reference to GPS for satellite navigation. That BTW is one of the easiest things to damage physically with a High Power Microwave/Directed Energy (HPM/DE) attack from serious EW - there is a fixed frequency at which excessive power can be transmitted from nearby. Expensive aircraft antennas try to point towards the sky and so away from the attack.

A link from there also describes controversy about an earlier system:

This was supposed to implement NATO STANAG 5525 Ed 1 for dispersed military command:

So, lots of useful but confusing background a few clicks away from a single link to a video interview.

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https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1540781978940624897?s=21&t=fhiQBKpv8vYV9rrX2J7IVA

https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1540761464318971904?s=21&t=fhiQBKpv8vYV9rrX2J7IVA

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1540905032098496514?s=21&t=VIe6WRsPWv5X72LwheCFcg

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Edit - throw me a reply? Three post limit.

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Terrific work, may you prosper now and forever

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6.25.22 Update, day 122 of Russian invasion.

Belarus:

Belarusian armed forces continue to maneuver along the border region with Ukraine. The current exercises are in Gomel region, and are projected to last until July 1. The Ukrainian government reiterated Belarus will almost certainly not participate in the war with their own military forces.

RU announced it would supply Belarus with Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and drew explicit reference to the fact they can carry nuclear-tipped missiles after the Belarusian government held a sham referendum weeks ago changing their constitution to allow the stationing of nuclear weaponry on their territory. Putin also stated that they would modify Belarusian aircraft to carry nuclear missiles.

Kyiv/ West Ukraine (1):

RU launched a large number of missiles into western Ukraine, with reportedly 45 ballistic missiles being fired. At least 12 Air-launched missiles were fired from heavy bombers over Belarus, as well as Kalibr missiles launched from the black sea into W Ukraine. Elsewhere, ground based missiles were launched into N Ukraine from Belarus and Russia, and anti-ship missiles were used in a ground attack role against targets in Southern Ukraine.

While a number impacted their targets, many were intercepted by UA Air defenses. This seems to be a last-gasp attempt to restrict the flow of western aid to UA, given that HIMARS are known to be in country now.

Another set of missiles further impacted into Kyiv overnight, with one hitting a structure after being shot down.

Sumy/Chernihiv (2):

RU forces continue to consolidate themselves along the border, and had multiple helicopters firing rockets on some border regions.

20 missiles were fired on the village of Desna in Chernihiv via MLRS and aircraft.

There has been an increase in arson attacks towards RU recruitment centers in Belgorod region, and reportedly Belgorod Police are searching for a number of RU defectors.

N Kharkiv (3):

RU forces continued to shell along the front, with isolated shelling in in Zolochiv, Slatyne, and Dementievka. RU forces launched an attack W of Kozacha Lopan towards the town of Udy, the closest UA position to the border, but apparently got caught out in a field by artillery and were repelled. Another RU attack near Tsupivka similarly got caught out in a large open field by UA forces within the surrounding forest, and their fire support.

RU forces to the NE of Kharkiv launced an attack SW from Rubizhne, with apparent goal to further push UA forces away from menacing Vovchansk and the supply lines therein.

RU continues to reinforce its supply lines from Russia through Vovchansk>Kupyansk in order to maintain logistics to the Izyum/Lyman axis.

Izyum/Lyman (4):

Russian forces again attacked towards Slovyansk, and were again repelled. RU forces are increasing their shelling of the highway from Slovyansk-Lysychansk, and spotting with UAVs.

Severodonetsk/Lysyschansk (5):

UA forces completed their withdrawal from Severodonetsk, and RU troops are now in control and fortifying positions in the city and suburbs. It appears that RU may need several days to effectively consolidate its forces within the city, which are spread out from the W industrial zone to the SE suburbs.

RU forces have begun limited combat on the outskirts of Lysychansk, attacking a refinery to the SW of the city proper. UA units in the city state that Lysychansk is more easily defensible then Severodonetsk due to terrain and fortifications, and they will be able to operate more freely then in their extended positions within Severodonetsk.

Reportedly RU has appointed a military commander for the city, which is 90% destroyed, and has begun filming propaganda videos with civilians remaining in the city who can only evacuate into RU occupied territories at this point.

Ukrainian troops are occupying positions on elevated terrain in Lysychansk, which may allow them to repel Russian attacks for some time if the main line of contact remains on the south. RU is apparently attempting to push the line of contact to surround the city from the W, but thus far have been unable to move through the UA lines of defense, and may have lost the town of Vovchoyarivka to the SW of Lysychansk following an UA counter-offensive

Popasna/Bakhmut:

RU forces continue to advance from the Popasna front towards Lysychansk, from the Toshkivkha/Ustynivka breakthrough, and there has been very heavy all along the front line from Berestove to Vovhoyarivka, to Berestove. RU forces are confirmed to have captured Mykolaivka and Loskutivka, and there are mixed reports of RU attempts to rush into the SE of Lysychansk and being repelled.

With the heaviest shelling across the whole front line on the Popasna-Lysychansk front in several weeks recorded, it remains to be seen what the outcome will be.

RU forces continue to shell towards Bakhmut, but the general thrust remains to menace/take the highway leading into Lysychansk, rather then attacking further west into Bakhmut itself. There was however a pair of attempted offensives towards the outskirts of Bakhmut into Pokrovske area, one of which was repelled and the other is still unknown.

Currently there is ongoing fighting in Vovchoyarivka, after a failed UA counter-offensive S of the town along the front line. The situation remains unclear.

Donetsk (6):

RU forces continued to shell the front lines in Donetsk, including with MLRS and mortars. RU offensives towards Niu York and Marinka along the W and NW edge of Donetsk city were repelled.

UA SOF destroyed a column with several long-range MLRS Huracan launchers, as well as accessory armored equipment.

Mariupol (7):

RU forces are apparently making no steps to provide heating for Mariupol once winter arrives, and instead will likely attempt to deport the citizens to other RU controlled territory. There is also a water and food shortage, and a landfill is burning in Mariupol filling the air with toxic gasses, which RU is either unwilling or unable to extinguish.

RU forces burned a number of religious texts from the Ukrainian church library of Peter the Great at the request of the Russian Orthodox church. Among the burnings was several unique Ukrainian-language texts, and reportedly Russia is weighing a decision to level the church altogether.

Zaporizhia/Southern Axis (8):

RU forces continue to leverage artillery and rocket fire across the front, but attempted no offensive actions otherwise. It appears that RU may have a lack of experienced forces and inadequate replacement equipment. RU forces are attempting to focus artillery against UA logistics and supply hubs. The goal appears to prevent reinforcement to other more active fronts to the east.

RU artillery fire increased considerably today, almost 150% over past days. RU also launched 4 air strikes and used an A2A missile against UA aerial units with unknown effect.

UA aviation launched 5 air strikes, destroying 2 ammo dumps and an artillery position.

RU attempted another attack on Hulayipol and were again repelled, as was an attempt on retaking Vusokopillya where RU lost the territory some days ago.

Its reported that RU forces in occupied areas are using local databases to identify and kidnap relatives of current-serving UA military personnel, predominantly children, women, and elderly individuals. After this, servicemen are contacted and told they need to surrender to RU units in exchange for the safety of their family. This is predominantly happening along the southern front.

Kherson (9):

RU forces continue to fight via counter-battery fire along the front line, but have been unable to constitute enough forces for a counteroffensive or to launch assaults with the forces they currently have.

In Kherson region, reportedly RU forces are inflicting wounds on themselves in order to be medically evacuated from the frontline.

RU fired 9 ONYX anti-ship rockets at Mykolaiv and its suburbs from the coastal “Bastion” missile system located in Crimea, targeting the port infrastructure, residential areas and recreational areas.

The UA GRU stated to expect visible results in Kherson by some point in August, but otherwise to hold on and be patient. The UA governments administration for partisan resistance is urging UA citizens to practice safe digital security, but not to wipe everything lest they stand out as suspicious. It was reported that citizens in Kherson are hiding weapons and waiting for the order to go, before taking up arms actively against RU forces.

Odessa/Black Sea/Transnistria (10):

Reportedly in the black sea, there are 2 missile ships equipped with up to 16 Kaliber cruise missiles, as well as 1 troop transport, while the rest have pulled back to safe harbor after the heavy storms have passed through the area. The threats of the sea mines drifting after recent storms continues, and in general the rough seas have hampered RU naval movements.

General:

Yesterday, Ukrainian forces eliminated:

150x soldiers (Total 34,850)
21x tanks
14x APC
5x Artillery (2x MLRS)
1x Helicopter
1x Plane
4x UAV
7x vehicles

The majority of losses were in the Bakhmut and W Donetsk direction.

Russia’s Defense Ministry has announced a change in the leadership of the central and southern groups at war with Ukraine, confirming earlier reports of a leadership shake-up.

There is an individual who utilized deepfake technology to impersonate the mayor of Kyiv and has set up video meetings with the Mayors of Berlin, Madrid, and Vienna. The actual mayor of Kyiv has responded to the fraudster, saying this is an RU campaign to damage relationships between UA and EU politicians.

Ukrainian citizens deported by the Russian Federation who managed to escape from Russian filtration camps to other countries will be admitted to Ukraine without documents. In particular, routes are being set up from Latvia and Estonia.

The UA Ministry of Foreign Affairs is considering the possibility of ending visa-free travel for Israelis, due to the restrictions that Israel currently imposes on refugees from Ukraine. There appears to be some ongoing diplomatic spat, rather then a breakdown of ties.

Hackers are attacking Ukrainian telecomms companies via an email from a Ukrainian government email address with a Legalaid.rar file, which uploads malware via a spreadsheet. This is a reminder not to click strange links.

Ukraine will receive a grant of 1 billion euros from Germany.

Looking forward:

It is unclear what the outcomes will be from the RU offensive towards the SE of Lysychansk, as unless RU forces encircle the city fully, there are several defensible positions. RU is apparently targeting the logistic routes into the city pretty heavily, although the big question mark is the ease of moving logistics into a city over numerous ground routes as compared to across a river.

The reported UA offensives along the southern front appear to be making slow but sure progress

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Its reported that RU forces in occupied areas are using local databases to identify and kidnap relatives of current-serving UA military personnel, predominantly children, women, and elderly individuals. After this, servicemen are contacted and told they need to surrender to RU units in exchange for the safety of their family. This is predominantly happening along the southern front.

I’m hoping that the animals who are ordering these actions get to eat a big mouthful of HIMARS launched rockets soon.

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Efforts to counter Russia’s aggression: If Russia invades, US special operations forces have an unconventional plan to liberate the Baltics
image
https://censor.net/en/resonance/3070788/if_russia_invades_us_special_operations_forces_have_an_unconventional_plan_to_liberate_the_baltics

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The interesting question now is at what point Russia (Putin) decide they can claim enough political “victory” to sell to the home market, and do they continue to feed their youth into the mincer of the front lines for further dubious value gains? Close the ring on Severodonetsk and then shift to a defensive posture? That’s a difficult proposition if Ukr can bring HIMARS and various Nato guided artillery pieces to bear on static targets. I still don’t see any viable exit path for Russia if Western Europe continue to supply Ukraine with adequate weaponry.

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That’s an old article, and I’d suggest there’s zero chance of Russian invasions of the Baltic states at this point in time, and for the foreseeable future, unless the conflict is going both literally and figuratively nuclear.

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Reported on Ukrinform site that Kh-10 missiles launched by Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers on Kyiv

14 Russian missile launches. 10 shot down by Ukraine. 4 impacted in residential areas. 1 dead, about 12 wounded. (Numbers may increase)

Likely revenge for the MLRS strike. Deliberate attack of civilian areas.

Ukrainian missile defences are becoming impressive. No indication of what is being used, but I guarantee you it isn’t what they had at the start of the war.

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Before this strike I was really hoping Albo would take a detour to Kyiv as it would mean so much but I can fully understand now if it doesn’t happen. Just too risky now

Yes, I agree that there is little chance of Russia attacking Poland and the Baltics while bogged down in Ukraine. I thought it interesting that NATO concluded that Russian forces could invade to the edge of Estonia’s capital of Tallinn or the Latvian capital of Riga in 36 to 60 hours and that they had plans to wage a special forces led resistance war as a response.

Is the 14 number for the whole of UA? Latest from Ukrinform, based on UA Defense Telegram report, refers to one downed for Kyiv.

Hopefully successful use of HIMARS by Ukraine is able to disrupt the Russian supply lines. Russian use of artillery is their biggest advantage, if this can be disrupted by making it difficult for Russia to be able to utilise its large stockpiles, it favourably changes the balance.

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That was Kyiv. Unless I’m talking about yesterday and you’re talking about today.

My post was about today.
There was a report sourced from the Defense Ministry , of a 25 June launch of 12 missiles from Tu-22M bombers from Belarus, targeting Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.

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