I went to Beirut before the War started there in 1975, and watched from afar as the Civil War erupted. I returned around 1985 and was shocked by the destruction of this beautiful city.
I understand what you are saying Sal, but nothing really prepares you for seeing this stuff first hand.
It took many years for Bomber Harris’s reputation to be restored after the bombing of Dresden ( which was entirely a civilian target). The captured Bomber Command fliers held at Buchenwald ( including one of my relatives ) were designated as terrorists and were scheduled to be executed, only saved by a deal with Goering, then hidden away in Stalag Luft 3, not revealed to the Red Cross. Families only knew they were alive, after they transferred to another POW camp in the face of the Russian advance then marched across Europe to England.
Highly recommend the Hardcore History podcast Supernova in the East. Gets into that space and makes some really interesting and awkward points about Bomber Command.
Do you think this was a Strategic decision by UAF, part of a broader, big-picture plan to bleed Russia before a big counter-offensive with new reserves and new equipment?
What about this map from Euractiv from a few months ago that I saw on reddit, which scenario seems more likely in the next six months?
It was definitely a Ukrainian strategy to pin the majority of the Russian combat power in an area that was most defensible. It attritted the Russians and bought time to mobilise new troops and donated materiel.
The question now is how much of the experienced Ukrainian troops are still alive? How much equipment was abandoned in Lysychansk? Do they have the combat power remaining to counterattack?
I suspect we will see a phyrric Ukrainian victory. Kherson over the next 4-6 weeks will be critical, which could allow the southern front to be pressured. I don’t expect a complete Russian collapse.
Quibling on terminology here but that would be a tactical not strategic decision.
And my answer would be yes. I just read an article by a former US European Commander, Mark Hertling that lays out the path of UA forces towards tactical competence , or even excellence and compares it to the sovi… er, russians I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here's What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies. - The Bulwark
On the likely scenario, I agree with Benny40 that by the end of the year we may see the phyrric UA victory but hoping for more.
No mention of whether it will have the RWS or what armaments.
No need for them to make so many washing machines since all those Rus soldiers brought stolen ones back from UA.
It really depends on how much political will NATO and allies have. Basically a game of geopolitical chicken with Ukraine in the middle.
I think Split in Half and Landlocked are off the table. Russia won’t get Odessa because they can’t sustain naval support. Back to 2014 is off the table Ukraine won’t get Crimea because it has no navy to speak of. The war will make the Crimean peninsula basically an island economy which will be interesting for its inhabitants. Everything will have to come in by sea until Ukraine and Russia can reach some sort of future trade agreement… imagine a long way off.
So you’re left with Novorossiya (which is how it’s looking now), Liberated LDPR, or Day 1 borders.
Russia’s economy is hard to get a read on but it looks like there are signs that it is in serious trouble. Economists believe second quarter GDP will decline significantly and they’ll fall into a deep recession. The Kremlin is running the line that internal production will replace what’s missing after the west left but this seems unlikely. They can still flog oil and gas but they have a shorter list of customers and hence are getting lower prices.
Western support is going to be challenged, particularly in Europe, in about November when it starts to get cold. December through Feb is going to be a real struggle from an energy perspective. Mid terms in the US will also throw a new dynamic in as the Republicans seem to be pro-Russia these days and Dems will likely lose control of the house and the senate… will support bills get through?
If western support sustains for 2-3 years Day 1 borders will be the result. Money always wins in war and Ukraine will have more financial support than Russia can generate. If western support falters this winter Novorossiya will be the result. Otherwise we’ll probably get Liberated LDPR.
HIMARS reloading and scooting away.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1544041925644353537?s=21&t=KcIryD2EYLZnTYbuiTyo0w
Are we being too glass half full on Ukraine?
Ukraine keeps losing more and more territory, and we keep saying they are achieving their aims of attriting Russia, and weakening them to take back these huge swathes of land back later on (which by that time Russia will have had a chance to improve defences on).
It all seemingly relies on that Russia won’t be able to continue bringing in more recruits and more weapons. At least for the former, it sounds like they have no problems finding more cannon fodder, as grim as that is.
I feel there have been many calls in recent months that Russia would start to collapse in the coming weeks, and that does not seem to be happening at all.
Russia has some massive problems in the medium term. Their military effectiveness has been absolutely abysmal over the last 3 months. They’ve conquered territory, but the entire Russian army has only been capable of capturing a single village every 3 days. There’s a lot of villages in Ukraine. When you hear of a Russian win, you need to look at the size of territory taken. This three month conquest has been pathetically small in the grand scheme of things.
The only weapon that has worked for Russia is massive overwhelming artillery bombardment, followed by a short advance with the handful of quality infantry that still remain. With larger and larger numbers of MLRS systems, Ukraine can continually eliminate Russian artillery ammo, which will prevent the mass concentration of artillery that has worked of late.
The current Russian conscription intake is due to finish in a few weeks. They’ve coerced 30% of their target numbers into the army. To deploy those conscripts, they need to bully them into signing contracts to become volunteer soldiers. Even then, they’ll be inexperienced cannon fodder. Russia doesn’t have manpower. It’s critical.
Ukraine has manpower, but is losing their quality troops. What they have going for them is a huge problem over the past 6 years in keeping soldiers in the army. That meant they had to keep training up new tank crews and infantry. Now those troops who retired are all coming back, giving a huge influx of trained crews. But overall, their best units have maybe 50% of the experience they started with. You can’t become an expert infantry soldier in 3 months of basic training.
Russia will take a pause here. They’ve thrown everything they had at the Donbas pocket and are now completely spent as an aggressive force. They’ll bunker down and try to hold back the Ukrainians.
The question now is how much strength did the Ukrainians keep in reserve? How good are they at large scale assaults? Are the Russians weak enough along the entire front to allow localised breakthroughs? Can Ukraine scale up partisan attacks and missile strikes to starve the Russian forces of supply and make them useless?
There’s no clear answer. The next 6 weeks will swing towards Ukraine. Time will tell if Ukraine is capable of making use of that window.
Edit - watch Kherson over the coming weeks. I’ve posted the latest shifts earlier today. If Ukraine can take that back, it will give western nations confidence to throw more military support. If the Kherson assault fails, the support may dry up.
Edit edit - Russia has likely lost 1/2 to 1 million tonnes of ammunition over the past 2 weeks. They have 45 million tonnes, but it’s in deep storage. Every artillery shell is a 2 man lift box. They don’t use forklifts and pallets. 20-30 artillery ammo dumps worth of mass now need to be manually loaded onto trains, brought to the front and manually offloaded. While Ukraine looks to drop more MLRS strikes on these locations and Russia struggles to find manpower.
