7.4.22 Update, day 131 of Russian invasion.
Belarus:
Belarusian armed forces continue to maneuver along the border region with Ukraine. The current exercises are in Gomel region, and are projected to last until July 16 now. They are currently practicing making pontoon bridge crossings, but have formed no assault groups that would be necessary to attack Ukraine.
Belarusian doctors have reportedly received a ban on traveling outside the country.
The UA government continues to state there is minimal chance of Belarusian forces invading, and the 112th TDF force put out a statement regarding defensive operations to the NW of Kyiv, reminding citizens to not panic.
The UK announced new sanctions on Belarus:
The sanctions package includes a ban on the import and export of goods worth about 60 million pounds. In particular, it is prohibited:
Export of oil refining products, Export of advanced technology components, Exporting luxury items including British artwork and designer handbags, Import of Belarusian iron and steel.
Kyiv/ West Ukraine (1):
Australian Prime minister visited Bucha, Gostomel, and Irpin and additionally pledged another 100 million dollars in aid.
Per the UA ministry of defense, there is no need for forced mobilization of women to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
There are no restrictions related to mobilization for crossing the border for women, and as of now, no such restrictions are planned."
Sumy/Chernihiv (2):
RU forces continue to consolidate themselves along the border, and fired across the border with artillery. There appears to be no formation of RU assault groups as of yet, or preparations for a renewed ground assault.
RU helicopters carried out air strikes on a Ukrainian school along the border.
N Kharkiv (3):
RU forces attempted another assault towards Dementiivka but were repelled. They have attempted almost daily assaults for the past week here, with shelling and artillery fire, although reportedly not in considerable force.
UA troops are reportedly engaging in skirmishes towards the RU strongpoint of Kozacha Lopan along the border, from the W in the direction of Udy, the UA position closest to the border in that area. The goal of RU forces in the Kharkiv region appears to be to limit UA advances and secure RU held territory and logistics lines, rather then seize territory themselves.
There is evidence of fires across the river from Staryi Saltiv, near Zarichne where RU positions are believed to exist. UA forces have long since pulled back across the river into Staryi Saltiv, but there appears to still be recon and artillery capabilities to be used against the RU forces.
RU forces reportedly attacked the UA 92nd Mechanized and 40th Artillery with air strikes, as part of strategies to limit UA long-range artillery and offensive operations.
Izyum/Lyman (4):
Russian forces again attacked towards Slovyansk with artillery and rocket fire, with air strikes reported along the main highway.
RU forces successfully assaulted into the small town of Mazanivka to the NW of Slovyansk, midway between the front lines towards Barvinkove. This town is in and of itself not highly significant, but it further indicates the loss of some/all UA positions near Dovhenke further N, where heavy UA entrenchments have successfully stalled RU advance for the better part of 2 months.
RU forces heavily shelled the city of Slovyansk, causing at least 21 causalities when one of the city’s markets was fired on by MLRS.
RU troops have reportedly deployed an additional BTG from the Izyum area SW towards Barvinkove, indicating that a more sustained assault attempt may be underway.
Another RU ammo depot was destroyed near Izyum, containing artillery ammo.
Lysyschansk/Severodonetsk (5):
Putin awarded the title of Hero of Russia to the commanders of the Central Military District Alexander Lapin and the deputy commander of the Southern Military district, for their participation in the battle of Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. Putin also announced that RU units in the area should take an operational pause to rest, having stated the goal of seizing the Luhansk region in totality had been accomplished with the fall of Lysychansk.
Former FSB agent of note Igor Girkin publicly admonished the actions of RU forces in the fighting for Severodonetsk, saying that UA was allowed to dictate the battle and managed to inflict high and unnecessary casualties on RU forces, while the overall success was insufficient. He again made the push for full war footing and mobilization, stating that currently Russian troops need to rest and consolidate, but such an operational pause would advantage the Ukrainian military, and threaten RU success elsewhere on the battlefield.
RU forces are attempting to make a count of all the remaining civilians in Severodonetsk, especially children, for unknown purpose. It is believed that due to the scale of destruction in the city, most of the citizens will be deported to other RU controlled areas.
UA forces are continuing to consolidate for a defense of Siversk, and reportedly repelled an RU assault from Bilhorivka. Currently, the front line appears to extend from Hryhorivka (a small town immediately along the Siverskt Donets river) down to Verkhnokamyanske, which is just W of where UA troops were conducting their fighting withdrawal at the oil refinery, and then further south to Berestove and the Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway, where another set of RU assaults were repelled.
RU troops appear to be prioritizing offensive operations around Spirne, a small town to the SE of Siversk, where terrain and water features would allow them to attempt to swing around to the S of Siversk.
UA SOF reported on a successful operation to retrieve SOF forces behind enemy lines on the far side of the Donets river, and despite running into RU forces during the evacuation were able to successfully exfiltrate.
Popasna/Bakhmut:
RU forces have attacked again towards the Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway near the town of Berestove, but were reportedly repelled after an attack towards the coal power plant in Vuhlehirskaya.
RU forces have attacked further towards UA positions to the E and SE of Bakhmut, but are not committing the same amount of forces or airstrikes as in the north, indicating that the current goal is to push from the N towards Siversk and Slovyansk, rather then a prioritization on the southern front near Bakhmut. This may be because the RU positions in Svitlodarsk, to the SE of Bakhmut, have been increasingly heavily shelled, and the RU forces are not nearly as consolidated as in the north.
Donetsk (6):
RU forces continued to shell the front lines in Donetsk, including with MLRS and mortars. RU troops again attacked towards the W of Donetsk City, into the suburbs of Marinka and Podeba
Further N, RU troops are having minimal success, but are heavily shelling Avidiivka having maneuvered artillery into the hills NE of town. UA forces continue to conduct shelling into the NW portion of Donetsk city, and the logistical suburb of Yasynuvata.
UA HIMARS was active today, with musings that there may be in fact several more then the 4 units reported by western media currently active. UA forces fired on a number of RU rear-line positions in the Donetsk region,
In the Rostov region, a Russian Forpost drone crashed into a private building.
Mariupol (7):
The situation in Mariupol remains grim. The occupiers took away the Russian doctors from Mariupol and left the city without medical assistance.
Less then 3% of the population has access to water.
Zaporizhia/Southern Axis (8):
RU forces continue to leverage artillery and rocket fire across the front, but launched no major offensives. Reportedly UA is amassing troops and equipment for a potential offensive in this region.
One of the main RU bases near Melitopol was heavily damaged by UA long range fires, in addition to the airport which was the only “relatively intact” airport inside Ukraine RU forces controlled.
Reportedly another RU armored train was derailed and attacked by partisans while carrying munitions, while another railway bridge was destroyed along the Crimea-Melitopol lane. There appears to be a concerted effort to limit RU logistics capacities in this region, particularly by rail.
A UA nuclear plant worker was beaten and killed by RU forces in Enerhodar when he refused to dive into a portion of the reactor’s cooling tanks.
Kherson (9):
RU forces have resupplied with additional artillery ammo, and have conducted massive shelling across the front line, particularly to the NE of Kherson City. UA troops appear to have taken the W town of Oleksandrivka, and are attempting to push along the coastline towards Kherson from the W, as evidenced by numerous UA artillery strikes on RU positions in the area.
Further to the NE of Kharkiv City, UA troops have also heavily shelled and/or conducted counter battery fire around Davidy brid, along the Inhulets river. RU aircraft engaged in A2A combat with UA aircraft in the area, with unknown outcome.
UA lead elements have come very close to the outskirts of Kherson, reportedly within sniper range of the city proper in some cases (1-2 km), but they do not yet have the necessary forces and means to liberate the city.
Odessa/Black Sea/Transnistria (10):
Reportedly in the black sea, there are 3 missile ships equipped with up to 30 Kaliber cruise missiles as the heavy storms have generally passed through the area. The threats of the sea mines drifting after recent storms continue.
UA forces reportedly dropped the Ukrainian flag onto Snake Island, but have not yet deployed troops there.
An RU spotter in Odesa, a native of the city, was arrested under suspicion of providing intel for the missile strikes on the city and the Dniester bridge.
General:
Yesterday, Ukrainian forces eliminated:
230 x soldiers (Total 36,200)
5x tanks
10x APC
3x Artillery (0x MLRS)
1x Helicopter
4x UAV
11x vehicles
The majority of losses were in the Slovyansk and Donetsk areas.
UA announced a post-war economic framework for rebuilding the country. It is projected to take at least 750 billion dollars, and the better part of a decade.
Currently, approximately 4.4 billion dollars are spent on the UA military per month, as compared to the previous budget of 5 billion dollars per the entire 2022 calendar year.
The FSB carried out a videotaped raid on a Russian native who allegedly transferred money to Come Back Alive, making allegations about committing treason.
Slovakia plans to transfer up to 11 MIG-29 fighters and unknown number of tanks to Ukraine, and the Czech Republic will help patrol the skies until Slovakia can make use of new American F-16 jets.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine congratulated the United States of America on Independence Day by playing the US national anthem. Currently the US has provided military aid to Ukraine in the amount of 7 billion dollars.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine is negotiating with Turkey and the UN regarding the export of Ukrainian grain through ports.
Looking forward:
UA troops will likely continue to attempt to consolidate defenses near Siversk, as well as along the southern line all the way down to Bakhmut. It remains to be seen if RU forces have the means and motivation to further assault W towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk after heavy losses in manpower and equipment during the battle for Severodonetsk.
The forward positioning of UA troops near Kherson means that the capability for deeper strikes into the city becomes increasingly feasible.
