Probably but as Bhutan ranks number one in the world in terms of average land elevation above sea level (3300 metres) they are waiting for a lot of rain to launch
Four years on from the peak of Vladimir Putin’s power as a leader, events are conspiring and nations collaborating to spotlight the Russian dictator’s vulnerabilities.
Vladimir Putin spent America’s Independence Day in 2018 with eight Republican politicians. In Moscow. Those proud patriots skipped the July 4 parades and fireworks to celebrate freedom with a Russian dictator.
Russia was hosting FIFA’s World Cup, with billions of viewers tuning in. Construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline had commenced. When completed it would allow Russia to send more natural gas direct to Western Europe, tightening its grip on Europe’s energy supplies. These exports would bypass existing pipelines in Ukraine and Poland, shrinking transit revenues to both nations. Two weeks later Putin met with then president Donald Trump in Helsinki for their now infamous summit.
Putin’s power was at its peak. His furtive forays into US domestic politics contributed to the defeat of his nemesis Hillary Clinton and the installation of his longtime sycophant Trump. Trump was singlehandedly disrupting American democracy, destabilising global alliances, and threatening to decapitate NATO. The table was set for Putin to realise his grandest ambitions.
It’s been all downhill since then. Four years later Russia has been banished from this year’s World Cup. Nord Stream 2 is kaput, as Europe pivots away from Russia’s energy stranglehold. Ukraine has revealed to the world that Russia’s military is as Potemkin as its villages. Meanwhile Joe Biden, a seasoned foreign policy veteran, sits in the Oval Office.
Two events last week underscore Putin’s reversal of fortune. The first, almost unnoticed, was that exports of US liquefied natural gas to Europe surpassed Russian pipeline flows for the first time. This is a stunning transition. When President Biden was sworn in 18 months ago, US gas was a negligible share of total European consumption.
Market restructuring of this magnitude and in such rapid fashion reflects the Biden administration’s efforts to redeploy global LNG supplies and help transition Europe’s energy needs away from Russia’s grasp. It required both intensive international diplomacy and strategic corporate negotiations, just one part of a multi-dimensional response to Putin’s hostility.
The next was the formal invitation extended to Finland and Sweden to join NATO. To paraphrase President Biden’s observation of a previous landmark moment, this is a BFD. First, for the geopolitical shift it confirms. Second, for the unanimous resolve it signals. Third, for the speed of their accession.
Prior to the war in Ukraine, public support for NATO membership in both countries was marginal. For multiple different reasons, Sweden and Finland remained resolutely neutral. Putin’s attack shook their complacency. It was one thing for him to launch incursions into Georgia and Crimea, or to blast Grozny and Aleppo to rubble. It was another thing altogether for him to openly invade a nearby sovereign state, with designs on reconstituting Greater Russia. Both nations share memories of disastrous conflicts with Russia.
As the horror in Ukraine unfolded, a newfound sense of vulnerability changed minds. It became apparent that, despite bluster, Putin refrained from directly targeting NATO allies. Article 5 was an effective deterrent after all. Safety in numbers suddenly seemed a prudent plan.
This mood shift also created an opportunity for the US and Europe to consolidate the alliance, both to counter Putin’s menace and to demonstrate the West’s capability and commitment to resist aggression. The world is watching the West’s response in Ukraine. The outcome will have major repercussions for future global security and order.
The alacrity of NATO’s imminent enlargement is most telling of all. Not only is it unprecedented in its urgency, but it also demonstrates deft statecraft that would have been impossible four years ago.
Put yourself in Putin’s shoes. It may appear that he is an unassailable dictator. However, that illusion is fading fast. His special military operation has bogged down, as casualties and materiel losses mount. Sanctions are chipping away at Russia’s economy. NATO is more united than it has been in decades. And his no-limits friendship pact with China turns out to be not quite so unlimited after all.
China has been hedging its bets on the war in Ukraine, wary of provoking retaliation from the US and Europe. While it has increased its purchases of Russian fossil fuels and other commodities, Russia’s pleas for military equipment, technology and spare parts transfers have gone unmet. With every passing day, Russia seems more destined to become China’s junior partner rather than equal ally.
Nonetheless, Putin is not about to throw in the towel. He may have been surprised by the resistance to date, but he still believes he can outlast his enemies. Backed into a corner, he will double down. He intends to starve millions in the developing world by blockading Ukraine food exports.
Inflicting mass starvation is a war crime. For Putin, it’s just one more charge on his rap sheet. His goals from this monstrosity are threefold. He wants to suffocate Ukraine’s economy and ability to defend itself. He wants to instigate a refugee crisis that floods Europe with starving migrants to sow discord and division within the NATO alliance. Then he wants to exploit these deliberate catastrophes to generate pressure for a negotiated surrender on his terms.
It’s all a long way from the heady heights of 2018. From strutting the world stage and having a US president lick his boots, to global pariah awaiting an appointment at the Hague. Putin is not done yet, but the walls are closing in.
Great article. Thanks
Thread
Thanks. Big.
Likely direction of counterattack is between Mariupol and Melitopol. There seems to be a substantial amount of chaos happening behind the lines in this area. The Kherson push is potentially to draw forces away from this key area. With this area captured, Kherson falls without an urban fight.
Sanctions ay’
See article of 1 June in Al Jazeera
- In golden age of margins, Indian private refiners profit.
At what discount? Russia selling oil for cents on the dollar is actually a good thing. We want them to sell volume and make no profit.
Russia’s attitude is “If we can’t steal it, no-one else can have it”
https://twitter.com/languageiearner/status/1544921630136221696?s=21&t=BsYznSRNrSRN4Jw3ycPjUQ
7.6.22 Update, day 133 of Russian invasion.
Belarus:
Belarusian armed forces continue to partake in modern art appreciation classes along the border region with Ukraine. The current dance practices are in Gomel region, and are projected to last until July 16 now. They are currently practicing hide and seek operations but have formed no table salt groups that would be necessary to attack Ukraine.
Kyiv/ West Ukraine (1):
Zelensky and CIC Zaluzhny had a meeting today, and in part due to the widespread public outcry on UA Social media, the proposed law limiting movement between regions of men of conscription age/reservists/conscripts was reversed. The new law permitting free movement should be signed by this weekend, and will replace the 1992 law which is outdated regarding these matters. Both men explained there was no misunderstandings going forwards, and that they are united in their approach, blaming the draft law on a misunderstanding.
Zelensky confirmed the incoming supply of long-range Air defenses, such as the NASAMS, which has range of up to 50km for interception of RU missile strikes.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Siarto said that Hungary did not supply weapons to Ukraine because the Hungarians do not want the Hungarians in the west of Ukraine to be a goal for Russian shelling. This was widely criticized and mocked by European politicians.
On July 5, the clergy of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church held a meeting at the Saint Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv. They made a joint declaration against the war, and agreed to constructive dialogue and unity between the two branches of Ukrainian Orthodoxy. The Ukrainian Orthodox church had a schism with the Russian orthodox church recently.
The UA minister of health stated that there is currently a fresh wave of Covid-19 in Ukraine, similar to other European countries, and that there are ongoing preparations for dealing with this in the fall and winter.
The Prime Minister of Ireland visited Kyiv region. Michal Martin visited Borodyanka, Bucha and Irpin.
Sumy/Chernihiv (2):
RU forces continue to consolidate themselves along the border, and fired across the border with artillery. There appears to be no formation of RU assault groups as of yet, or preparations for a renewed ground assault. There were a number of drone dropped explosives and mortar fire on a fertilizer storage facility. In June, ~10 strikes were carried out per day.
Per RU sources, a Ukrainian border guard managed to snipe a Russian combat engineer from a distance of approximately 1600m with a .50 caliber rifle. This would be approximately the 14th longest range small arms kill in history. This feat was followed up by mortar fire on the attempted RU entrenchment.
Kharkiv (3):
Ru forces shelled along the front lines with artillery, and fired rockets into Kharkiv with causalities reported.
Ru forces again attacked towards Sosnivka to the W of Kozacha Lopan, but were repelled. There was very heavy UA shelling and airstrikes on the RU strongpoint.
Additionally, RU forces shelled into the supply lines leading towards the front, specifically along the T2117 highway into Prudyanka/Tsupivka, and the NE road leading to Borschova and Slovozhanske. UA forces conducted airstrikes on a number of RU strongpoints past the front line along with artillery, specifically in Tokarivka, Mali Prokhody, Lyptsi, and Vesele.
RU forces continued to shell along the W bank of the Siversky Donets river, intending to dislodge UA forces from the area near Rubizhne.
Large numbers of RU troops were visualized near Prymorske, along the front lines to the E of Chuhuiv where UA forces have land bridges which would make crossing the Donets river and menacing RU supply lines more attainable.
Izyum/Lyman (4):
Russian forces again skirmished towards Slovyansk with artillery and rocket fire, with helicopter air strikes reported along the main highway. RU is trying to consolidate its units for another assault attempt.
RU forces may have been dislodged from Mazanivka, having attacked between there and Dovhenke.
Towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, RU has deployed additional EW capabilities.
Lysyschansk/Severodonetsk (5):
The 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade posted a 44 minute POV video of fighting in Severodonetsk, filmed during a single day on June 3rd, 2022. I encourage you to watch it if you want a taste for the hell of urban combat.
RU forces were pushed out of the urban area of Bilhorivka, comprising the river-crossing group from the N. Holding this terrain will allow UA to consolidate its hold against this new flank.
RU forces continued to heavily shell around Verkh’no’kamyanske and the town of Siversk in general. Reportedly, UA troops have consolidated enough as to repel the RU offensive ongoing over the past several days, and have been able to form defensive lines to the E of Siversk and along south towards Bakhmut.
Popasna/Bakhmut:
RU forces were reportedly continuing to assault Spirne, along the Lysychansk/Bakhmut highway, which if lost would force UA troops to withdraw further into the hilly terrain, in order to block an attempted RU sweep along the south towards the highway leading N into Siversk. The situation remains up in the air, with both sides claiming to control the city.
RU troops have launched assaults towards Bakhmut to the SE, and are likely attempting to open up multiple lines of attack before any major operations towards the city along its highways. These attacks were today repelled from 3 directions into the pocket near Myronivka and W of Luhanske, where RU forces also came under UA shelling behind the front lines in the urban area of Dolomitne.
Donetsk (6):
RU forces continued to shell the front lines in Donetsk, including with MLRS and mortars. RU troops again attacked towards the SW of Donetsk City, into the suburb of Marinka.
A large RU Oil depot in Donetsk was reportedly struck by UA artillery.
Mariupol (7):
The situation in Mariupol remains grim. Following the removal of RU doctors and medical staff, programs to support those recovering from chemical addiction were also stopped, and the “undesirables” as termed by RU occupation troops were essentially told to fix themselves or die to DTs.
A number of addicts have been detained, and killed by RU troops.
Zaporizhia/Southern Axis (8):
RU forces continue to leverage artillery and rocket fire across the front, but launched no major offensives. Reportedly UA is amassing troops and equipment for a potential offensive in this region. Per Zelensky, UA troops are already advancing with aid of NATO supplied artillery.
RU fired missiles into Dnipro again, resulting in civilian causalities. An unknown number were fired, and several were intercepted.
RU has blocked most all social media in the south, so as to prevent knowledge of the ongoing UA operation.
Reportedly a RU Lt.Col was killeld during the shelling of the RU base near Melitopol. Additionally, another railway bridge between Melitopol and Tokmak was destroyed. This is the 2nd in 3 days, and the 3rd overall UA partisan/SOF strike on RU rail lines in the last week.
Kherson (9):
RU forces have resupplied with additional artillery ammo, and have conducted massive shelling across the front line, particularly to the NE of Kherson City. UA troops appear to have taken the W town of Oleksandrivka, and are attempting to push along the coastline towards Kherson from the W, as evidenced by numerous UA artillery strikes on RU positions in the area.
Ongoing air battles continue, where reportedly another pair of A2A missiles was fired by RU SU-35 aircraft towards UA aircraft, who managed to evade the strike.
RU SOF attempted an assault towards Dobryanka in the NE of Kherson region, but were located and repelled.
UA troops are confirmed to be closer then officially reported by the UA government to Kherson city’s urban area. Keep an eye out.
Partisans have resumed their work in Kherson, where another RU warehouse/storage location near the railroad was attacked by explosives.
Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea(10):
Reportedly in the black sea, there are now 5 missile ships, 2 submarines, and 1 transport equipped with up to 48 Kaliber cruise missiles.
The former Deputy Chief of Staff for the UA military has explained that underwater drones, such as those which carry small torpedoes as mini-submersibles, could heavily damage the RU fleet at Sevastopol. He explained there were also issues with Anti-ship missile strikes into the bay, and there had been an aborted attempt to place Exocet anti-ship missiles onto a UA corvette.
An air-launched missile towards Odesa was intercepted by UA air defenses.
RU FSB agents raided an apartment of a man in occupied Yevpatoria, in Crimea, after he made an anti-Russian statement on social media.
General:
Yesterday, Ukrainian forces eliminated:
150 x soldiers (Total 36,500)
6x tanks
17x APC
6x Artillery (0x MLRS)
2x Air Defense systems
4x UAV
15x vehicles
9x Cruise Missiles
The majority of losses were in the Slovyansk and Bakhmut areas.
The RU MoD claimed to have destroyed 2 of the 4 HIMARS systems in Donetsk region, but this was rejected by the UA MoD. If the deep strikes from/into the Donbas continue, it will likely indicate this claim is materially false.
Approximately 10,000 Lithuanian citizens gathered to see the shipment of a crowdsourced Bayraktar drone to Ukraine. This one was donated free of charge with the money being used for munitions and accessory equipment, and the same was done for the 3 crowdfunded by UA public figure Sergei Prytula. Another collection is ongoing in Poland.
The ComeBackAlive charity reports that the first of its 25 Stork-100 UAV will be entering the army shortly. These drones can fly up to 50 km at speeds of 140km an hour, and will be used for spotting artillery.
The UA government said that now about one million citizens of Ukraine are gaining combat and military experience, and that “the ukrainian quality will exceed the russian quantity”
During the conference in Lugano, Switzerland, agreements were reached regarding financial support for Ukraine to the tune of $1.9 billion USD.
Of this amount, 600 million dollars is provided in the form of financial support, more than 500 million dollars for the development of the agricultural sector.
In addition, Ukraine agreed to provide more than 500 million dollars to provide heating and energy for the winter, and almost 250 million dollars to develop digital transformation projects.
Russian goods and supplies to their town on the Svalbard archipelago were finally allowed through Norwegian territory, after they were blocked last week. This incident had precipitated cyberattacks and a diplomatic kerfuffle between the two countries, as well as threats by RU regarding the Barents sea and recognized territory.
The state Duma of Russia proposed holding a referendum regarding Alaska choosing to leave the USA and rejoin Russia. This is, to put it mildly, a political stunt and nothing more.
Looking forward:
UA troops will likely continue to attempt to consolidate defenses near Siversk, as well as along the southern line all the way down to Bakhmut. It remains to be seen if RU forces have the means and motivation to further assault W towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk after heavy losses in manpower and equipment during the battle for Severodonetsk.
The forward positioning of UA troops near Kherson means that the capability for deeper strikes into the city becomes increasingly feasible.
In the face… There are some hard core things happening in this war.
If true, this is what will turn the tide of this war.
Not sure they are too keen for Ukr to re-establish position there.
Especially if had anti ship missile launchers, already doing enough damage to black fleet off the mainland.
If on Snake Island would expand their range
I was talking about the missile attacks on grain silos.
i wonder if the “Ukrainian border guard” served a stint with someone elses special forces units. that’s a long, long way for most shooters. Or a very unlucky Combat engineer.
How the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Lysychansk will affect the course of the war UATV
A documentary of the attack on Kharkiv back in February