Russia invades Ukraine - 2 - from 4 May 2022

Fark Russia

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Ukrainian SOF had CIA / retired special forces mentors since 2014.

Whether this particular sniper had that training is unknown, but substantial training has been provided over an extended period.

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Pics and article are up on ukrinform official media site

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> On July 5, the clergy of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church

Splitters?

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Putin Took Luhansk, but at What Cost to Russia?

“The UA government said that now about one million citizens of Ukraine are gaining combat and military experience, and that “the ukrainian quality will exceed the russian quantity”

Wouldn’t 1 million Ukrainians with combat experience beat RU current quantity as well as quality?

Without full mobilization I thought Russia currently had less than 100k in the field (many without combat experience).

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Russia has a fraction of the manpower, but many many times more metal. Russia only advances when they combine bulk artillery with the very small amount of quality infantry that are still alive.

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One is autonomous eastern Orthodox, the other is Russian Orthodox, with Moscow Patriarchate. Says something that they are working together, as the schism had been used as part justification for the so-called liberation and the Moscow Patriarch had been pro Putin. IIRC he had been subject to sanctions.

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Yes, the wording is a bit weird but maybe they mean Ukraine will definitively have the advantage in both quality and soon be numerically superior to them in front-line combat positions (ie Infantry) in all the major fronts in the country. It also may refer to the Russian Army being overwhelmingly made up of untrained conscripts who get thrown straight into battle.
How big is Ukraine’s army? Size compared to Russia military | NationalWorld
If previously stated numbers are to be believed, Ukraine is now/will soon be able to field many more trained and combat-ready fighters than the Russians have now in total. Without full mobilization the Russians won’t be able to match either the quantity, let alone the quality, of Ukraine’s Army.
Putin lacks troops in Ukraine but fears mobilization in Russia (kyivindependent.com)

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Extract from the economist:

“Mr Putin has been blockading exports of grains and sunflower oil from Ukraine’s ports, which will cause unrest and starvation in poorer importing countries. He seems to be trying to create gas shortages in the eu this winter by preventing members from building stocks over the summer. If unity falls apart over energy, as eu states hoard gas, it will disintegrate over Ukraine, too. To complicate matters further, nato members worry that if Ukraine gains the upper hand, Mr Putin will escalate. That could draw them into a catastrophic war with Russia.”

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Yeah he’s a right royal B%stard. Here is an article arguing that the west needs to hurry up and do what needs to be done and get the Heavy guns in so that Russia gets thrashed on the Battlefield sooner rather than later.
Let’s Use Chicago Rules to Beat Russia - The Atlantic

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Here is thought-provoking twitter thread on why appeasing Putin, trying to save his “face” or not trying to provoke him are not only cowardly, but don’t make sense in the real world:
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Timothy Snyder Profile picture

Timothy Snyder

(https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1533099435269447681)

Jun 4 ‱ 17 tweets ‱ 2 min read

It is senseless to shelter Putin from the sense that he is losing. He will figure that out for himself, and he will act to protect himself. 1/17

Russians are not cornered. The Russian army is not cornered. It is an invading force. When defeated, units just retreat across the border to Russia. 2/17

Putin rules in virtual reality, where there is always an escape route. He cannot be cornered in Ukraine, because Ukraine is a real place. 3/17

It is hard for people in other societies to grasp that Putin is a dictator who controls his country’s media. He rules by changing the subject. 4/17

Putin changes the subject all the time. The last time Russia invaded Ukraine, its media changed the subject to Syria from one day to the next, and Russians went along. 5/17

When Russia invaded Ukraine this February, the media quickly adjusted from saying that invasion was impossible to saying it was inevitable. Russians went along. 6/17

If defeated in reality, Putin will just declare victory on television, and Russians will believe him, or pretend to. He does not need our help for that. 7/17

It is senseless to create an “off-ramp” in the real world, when all Putin needs is one in a virtual world he completely controls. Talking of “off-ramps” just gives Russian leaders something to laugh about in what are otherwise difficult times. 8/17

To be sure, Putin might err and wait too long to declare victory in the virtual world. In that case he loses power. We cannot save him from such a misjudgment, and it is misguided to try. 9/17

Putin’s power over media will be complete until the moment when it ceases. There is no interval where our actions in the real world will make a difference. Either our off-ramps are unnecessary or they are irrelevant. 10/17

It is grotesque to ask the Ukrainians to make decisions about the war for the comfort of Russian television producers, who don’t take direction from the real world anyway. 11/17

Misunderstanding Russia through clichĂ©s of “cornering” and “off-ramps” will make the war last longer, by distracting from the simple necessity of Russian defeat. 12/17

Ukraine is a very different story. Zelensky, unlike Putin, is democratically elected, feels responsible for his people, and governs in a world where others matter. 13/17

Ukraine has a press that the government does not direct. Zelensky cannot simply change the subject. He has to bring his people along on any major decision. 14/17

Unlike Putin, Zelensky has to make a case to his people to end this war. He therefore does need help, both to win the war and in telling Ukrainians what comes next. 15/17

Unlike Russian soldiers, Ukrainians have nowhere else to go. They cannot just go home. The war is fought in their country. They will return to their homes and rebuild. 16/17

Ending the war means thinking more about the Ukrainian people and their future, and and worrying less about problems that Putin does not in fact have. 17/17

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