Russia invades Ukraine - 2 - from 4 May 2022

No worries. There is a lot of debate in the comments about what exact round it was and whether it was Russia or Ukraine that fired it. Here is another comment about it why it may be considered a war crime:
This doesn’t look like White Phosphorous, it looks like Magnesium Thermite. Either way we are witnessing a literal war crime. Im fairly positive the only approved use of these munitions by the Geneva Convention and other agreements in combat is for the purposes of illumination, smoke screen, and disabling equipment (ie thermite on an enemy vehicles engine block, or in the breech of an artillery or other fixed gun position.) but using it as an offensive weapon is forbidden. Just setting em off like this over a city filled with civillians is barberic. Im sure Russia and those damn bots will come out in force saying that “it was only for illumination? We wouldnt purposefully target civillians!” then they will just outright claim it was in fact, the Ukranians attacking themselves. (Sic)

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I too find it interesting how many times the Ukrainians have killed and bombed their own people. And now using this weapon, I hear they even bombed their own grain export silos. Talk about trying to lose a war!

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Ukraine formally takes issue with an anonymous UN source advising journalists ( reported in New York Times); that the Russian strike on Odessa port was not in violation of the grains agreement, calls it provocative and confirms that the official UN position is that of the Secretary General ( whose statement did not mention the legal position)
Ukraine statement acknowledges that the missiles hit port infrastructure ( without specifying the nature of the infrastructure). No mention of grain warehouses.

Update from a Ukrainian:

Five months have elapsed since Russia escalated the war to a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. During all this time, the fascists have changed their goals multiple times, nearly destroyed a few large cities, kidnapped at least 2 million people, rendered up to 10 million refugees or homeless.

Official Ukrainian count for kills of Russian soldiers is at 39,520; Ukrainian intelligence has intercepted a Russian report of 43,018 killed in Russian army, 11,437 killed in Russian paramilitary organizations, and 2117 killed among Russian Guard. Ukrainian numbers are smaller because they only count the remnants Ukrainian Armed Forces had physical access to, and doesn’t count the number of Russian bodies evacuated from battle grounds and sanitary losses.

Russian Minister of International Affairs Lavrov issued a completely national-socialistic speech promising to release the ‘Russian folk in Ukraine’ (i.e. the whole Ukrainian nation by their terminology) from the ‘Kyiv regime that doesn’t allow peace.’ Don’t do drugs, kids.

Experiencing the lack of appropriate missiles, the Russians started firing modified S-300 air defense missiles at Mykolayiv. Designed for airborne targets, these fly at random and cause harm to residential infrastructure in the city. One of S-300 launch positions has been destroyed today near Kherson.

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This won’t shock anyone I guess.

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Germany has failed to deliver all of the equipment swaps intended to free up equipment from other NATO nations.

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Shocked that those cowards can’t deliver

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No real shock that the Germans are failing to deliver anything to Ukraine when they can’t even deliver to their own military.

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That German procurement video was far more fascinating than the title suggested.

The German people culturally prefer to waste the majority of the billions of Euros they spend on defence, instead of getting an effective military for their money. For Germany, having a dominant military leads to ethical and historical concerns about what to do with it. Waste all the cash, get no equipment, the military is ■■■■ and a nice joke to laugh about.

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Yeah, it’s crazy. Europe actually needs Germany to be militarily strong, but they’ve been a basket-case for ages now. It’s completely self-imposed and they don’t seem able to break their own shackles without some paranoid fear that they will end up invading Poland again.

I highly recommend Perun’s youtube videos. He makes some really good analysis and has a very detailed understanding of procurement and logistics.

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Jeebus, that is horrendous.

Russia now saying that the Odessa missile strike took out a military ship docked in the harbour and a depositary containing US harpoon missiles. Change from what Turkey was told.
Some time back Ukraine banned journalists from Odessa, so who knows… Both sides presenting the story that suits them best, with conflicting statements also from Ukraine Ministers.

No big explosions filmed in the warehouse hit, so unlikely to be Harpoons. There was a warehouse hit, with a pretty thick black plume of smoke, but no secondary explosions that would indicate ammo cooking off. The “naval” vessel doesn’t look overly potent.

Yes, I’d suspect a lot more damage and far bigger explosions if a warehouse “full of Harpoons” was hit.
More spin than SK Warne on a day 5 MCG pitch

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32 missiles equates to 7t of high explosive… that would make itself known…

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There would be a decent sized crater where half of Odessa once sat if they went off I’d imagine

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Are the swaps primarily down to Germany? How much do the other big NATO players contribute?
In terms of the low level of German military manufacture, how long would it take for Germany to tool up for replacements?
I read somewhere that some of the European weaponry to be supplied from other than Germany had to be adapted or refurbished before it could be supplied to UA. This included the mothballed vehicles in Spain and some Norwegian lethal weaponry ( in regard to the ammunition available to Ukraine).
There is also a delay in supply in regard to the need to train UA army to use the weaponry, training in a number of countries within and outside Continental Europe.
I imagine that a fair amount of the swaps would involve Soviet era weaponry from Poland and smaller former Soviet bloc. France does not get much of a mention in media reporting.

There’s 3 swaps that haven’t progressed. Poland, Slovenia and Greece are either unhappy with the German offers or it’s dissolved into internal political bickering.

The current batch of Polish tanks being sent will be backfilled with US tanks.

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