We are kaput. How is Russia destroying its future (English subtitles)
4 Likes
6 Likes
8 Likes
8 Likes
6 Likes
But great music videos!
1 Like
Why has the rollout of HIMARS been slow? Likely to allow the logistics train time to adjust to the demands. These are very very hungry beasts, requiring a significant amount of logistics to get ammo by plane from the US, then train through Poland-Ukraine and then by truck to drop off points near the front.
4 Likes
128 pods = 20 mill USD a day plus the planes and manpower.
You have to wonder how much 50 ammo dumps would be worth.
4 Likes
Although the video does say that it also spells out clearly not only why Russians SHOULD fight the Ruscist regime but, at the end, precisely HOW his viewers should do so.
BTW here’s the link for Masanya episode 162 that he recommended at the start (click the CC button to get good english subtitles):
It is much darker than the earlier comedy episode I saw, but both videos are reasons for far more optimism about the Russian resistance than is widespread because it it cannot express itself openly in Russia and therefore appears to be Missing In Action.
They are there, they will fight, and as Katz explains when the Ruscists return from military defeat screaming that they were stabbed in the back (like German militarists after WW1) they will know what to do.
1 Like
Here’s my gut feel of what’s going to go down.
Firstly, the top Ukrainian units have been rotated out of the Donbas area. Quite reasonably, these units need a rest, they’ve taken an absolute hammering up there. But they could also be very useful in a counterattack as they are the best trained and experienced forces that Ukraine has.
Next, Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to hit bridges at will. Russia has demonstrated that they don’t know how I-Beams work. (Have you ever seen a structural I-Beam on it’s side? You haven’t, because that’s how building collapses happen…) It won’t take a huge amount of effort to degrade those bridges to the point that road supply lines are cut to the west bank of the river. That would leave the dam at Nova Kakhovka as the only crossing.
Now what… well we’ve seen pretty much all through this war that Russia only works with strong rail supply. The southern line to Kherson isn’t used now, being offloaded about 100km away. The northern line is likely still in operation. Either being offloaded at the river or a safe distance back.
Now the obvious play here is to push straight to Kherson and Nova Kakhovka once the Russian forces are light on ammo. Problem is that this forces the Ukrainians into a painful urban fight in a city full of their own citizens. Russia will use civilians as shields. Ukraine has been warning civilians to leave the city. The Russians know they are coming. They’ve been sending reinforcements to Kherson. More troops need more supplies.
This is what the Southern front looks like and where the rail lines are. The key rail interchange is about 50km from the front. Within HIMARS range, but you’d struggle to get a drone intact into visual range to know when a train is passing through.
Now if Ukraine can take a few towns here, they bring the rail line into artillery range. Drone targetted artillery could completely obliterate any ammo trains from that distance.
That 20-30km push, capturing a few towns, results in a Russian logistics scenario something like this:
This would put the entire southern front at risk. The Russians have two choices here, to hold Kherson to the end, or to withdraw and push the Ukrainians back from their rail lines. If the Ukrainians are cunning, they’d damage the bridges at this exact moment and trap the Russians while any reinforcements are tied up north of Melitopol. Leave enough of the bridges for foot traffic and force the Russians to abandon their equipment.
This would cause massive casualties on the Russian side and give the Ukrainians a strong position for further attacks, rather than needing to relocate their entire offensive force from Kherson to Zaporizhzhia. Even a feint along the lines of this plan could be enough to break the will of the Kherson occupiers.
There’s going to be a push towards Kherson once the Russian supply situation becomes critical. This is a given, even without substantial extra efforts the Russians will start to pull back into stronger less stretched out defences. I’d be absolutely stunned if there isn’t a second push like I’ve described above. War is won through misdirection. Ukraine has been focused increadibly obviously on Kherson…
10 Likes
Alright Benny it’s time. Drop you the club is cooked manifesto we’ve suffered enough
1 Like
Hurley… back or forwards coach?
Entertaining counter counter espionage story. Completely bonkers.
For all intents and purposes there is no difference?
1 Like
Air Mobility Command is the logistics command that is supposed to be able to rapidly deploy what’s needed for a major war in Europe.
There is NOW a major war in Europe.
If that isn’t the way they see it they could still treat it as a training exercise and accelerate deliveries of pods (and even trucks and trailers for them) much faster than that, during the unavoidable delay for Military Sealift Command surface deliveries to arrive for long term sustainment (and production lines get fired up too).
An 8 hour day with 1 pod per hour is not a particularly high tempo for a system that can fire a pod and scoot in 5 minutes.
Ukraine is not short of truck drivers. Anyway, the trucking side could be doubled to 4 pods per trip by using HEMTT plus trailer.
Rail and roads in Poland and Western Ukraine are functional.
They should try harder.
Until they do there will be more targets than munitions.
When they do there will be more munitions than targets. Hence the need for “Drone Army”.
Real problem is not logistics, which the US is pretty good at (needs to be with such a bizarre tail to teeth ratio).
Real problem is force posture. US did not contemplate supporting a long fires capability for Ukraine until at least 2028:
2 Likes
I think the big point there is to not focus on the number of launchers, but more on the number of rocket pods. That’s the limitation. I doubt Ukraine is being given 8 pods per launcher per day.
3 Likes
My gut feel is that Ukraine is very good at misdirection and Ruscists are very good at being misdirected.
My gut feel is not particularly reliable, but I get indigestion at the thought of launching offensives until the Ruscists are retreating and a warm contented feeling about harassment in Kherson to reduce pressure in Donetsk.
2 Likes
Agreed.
1 Like
H-beams are Horrible.
4 Likes