Russia invades Ukraine - 2 - from 4 May 2022

um, try again sweetie

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Given Kilos can only carry 4 ā€œKalibrā€ land attack cruise missiles, this isnā€™t going to be a very efficient way of delivery.

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The big assumption in that map is this:

current assumption is units are consolidating the BTGs as they take losses, reducing the total
number of effective BTGs but keeping the resulting BTGs at near full strength.

Is there any good basis for that assumption?

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Thats still 4 more than Iā€™d like to be under.

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Itā€™s a numbers game. Ukraine is shooting down a fair portion of those launched, and getting better equipment to do even better. The way Russia gets around this is to launch a whole lot of them and a certain percentage will get through.

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I donā€™t know.

Recent partial mobilization aimed at recruiting 60,000 additional troops from people who have done their 1 year mandatory service.

There was a post recently about Arestovich saying the recruits captured recently were completely hopeless ā€œzergsā€.

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https://twitter.com/notwoofers/status/1521680600016506880?s=21&t=p86FpnQICsYZdZmSx5ePPA

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Doing the right thing might be the worst thing for his family.

Am I the only sick person thinking a big military parade where Putin is present as a juicy target?

To cement the Russians into a strong rally around the flag effect and give Putin a popular mandate to declare war?

An attack on the parade would be very counterproductive.

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Iā€™m wondering how much equipment will actually be available to parade!

ā€œComrades, Letā€™s make it a true 1945 retro feel. Can we dig out a squadron of T-34ā€™s from a Siberian ice box?ā€

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Hereā€™s a good thread covering the problems facing the Russian advance.

And their realistic best case over the coming month, which is far from what they hoped to achieve.

This is slightly more pessimistic as a worst case compared to my desktop guesstimate prediction, but far far from a Russian victory. The above scenario would leave the Russians exposed to a counterattack if the Ukrainians can be supplied with enough gear.

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The parade lineup has been announced. Itā€™s largely prototypes. About half the amount of gear normally deployed.

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Looks a prime candidate for an armoured counter attack north of Izyum and swing south east, if they have the forces. The Izyum salient would be pinched off and potentially shorten the front line if it can be retaken. Id also assume that the water crossings from Borova are either destroyed , or about to be , if thatā€™s the only resupply line.

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Ohh itā€™s by no means anything realistic Iā€™m just sick of his sadistic face all the time! So no I donā€™t think it should would or could happen.

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Yes does seem as though

Further to my previous post. Looks like it was a decent ammunition convoy.

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President of the EU Commission

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Complete laypersons opinion.
Asking for Crimea is too much.
Restitutions, yes.

A Ukrainian win here is surely an acceptance of independence and solid borders?
That they are now free to join NATO because duh.

That there will be no more incursions and if there are then it will be frigginā€™ pulverised immediately.

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How could Ukraine possibly tolerate a Russian controlled Crimea after this? Some sort of truly independent state would be the only sane middle ground, and even that would have to have some controls re: naval presence in Sevastopol.

Russiaā€™s duplicitous aggression leaves them with little choice but to say get the ā– ā– ā– ā–  off our doorstep

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