Bump
6 Likes
3 Likes
When you are a long-standing member, frequent poster in other threads and when others post a bump to enable you to post more information for them, you canāt be suspected as suss by any.
5 Likes
I thought RU had stalled and UKR were on the offensive towards Kherson, however those updates above show RU still advancing.
Surely we are due for some huge gains by the UKR forces, after softening them up with HIMARS? Or do we need to wait longer for RU to use up supplies?
1 Like
The Ukrainian defensive line is down the Siversāk-Bakhmut line where thereās a line of hills that give Ukraine the advantage. The Russians have spent the month of July taking a few villages that are less fortified than the main defensive line. Russia still has a lot of artillery and are focusing what ammo theyāve got in this area. The gradual Russian collapse around Izyum is likely due to withdrawing forces to push towards Bakhmut.
Thereās not going to be a moment where Russia stops attacking at all. What we are seeing is them only acheiving extremely minor gains. Nothing of any strategic significance. Thereās a good chance that the āRussian heldā territory is more of an empty no-mans land than an actual Russian fortified position. The fact that theyāre acheiving so little is heavily due to HIMARS logistics strikes.
4 Likes
ā¦but I worry when I see benny posting in other threads. I just hope someone is checking his permission slip is signed by Zelensky.
3 Likes
The Government has now mandated the evacuation of residents in the unoccupied parts of the Donetsk region, claiming that there will be no heating or some other services.
The UA Government has lagged behind assisting the internally displaced, who rely on charities to assist them - a disincentive for civilians to move from the areas under occupation , threat of occupation or potential combat zones, It is now undertaking to fund their movement, including free housing of sorts, but it needs to go beyond announcements and appeals to patriotism.
2 Likes
Thereās also a growing unemployment problem across the country. Substantial issue over time.
2 Likes
I really want this to mean UA is going to launch a major offensive and they just want all civilians out of the way so they canāt be used as human shields.
1 Like
A big challenge is many people donāt want to leave their homes or towns. Too old or too poor.
My partners home town has doubled in population, with a bunch of accomodation for displaced being built by government. Most of them have the money to leave their towns.
4 Likes
Bucha and Irpin ended up becoming substantial suburbs in the lead up to this war due to people fleeing Donbas after the 2014 conflict. Thereās a tragic irony there. Thereās been an enormous internal displacement of citizens over the last 8 years.
The plus side of that is it has eased much of the internal divisions that had historically split Ukraine as those populations are now enmeshed.
2 Likes
My take on the below: Russia prioritising Bakhmut, ceasing shelling elsewhere and losing ground where theyāve pulled troops out. Effectively losing at the same speed they are advancing.
The reason for the reduction in VKS activity is as yet unclear.
Russian shelling has intensified again towards Kharkiv and Mykolaiv and remains intensive towards Bakhmut. Around Siversk shelling has subdued and across most other impacted regions shelling remains sporadic.
Fighting continues to be significant towards Bakhmut with several Russian localised offensives yesterday and overnight repelled. However Russian forces yesterday morning did secure Pokrovsāke.
A major Russian offensive on Bakhmut is likely in the coming days, but the city has some significant defences.
Fighting around Siversk has subdued significantly with indications Russian units are manoeuvring south to reinforce the Bakhmut offensives.
Around Izyum there was some further fighting to the west of the Russian FOB, but no reported Russian manoeuvres out of this area, now halting Russian progress towards Slovyansk. Several Russian units in this region are isolated due to localised Ukrainian counteroffensives.
North and northeast of Izyum Russian forces are reinforcing their resupply corridor to Belgorod and Russian forces have consolidated here to try to reinforce Izyum and or move units from their mostly contained FOB there to support other regions.
Southwest of Izyum Russian forces did consolidate and launch offensives on two settlements with one now contested and fighting ongoing.
Russian forces also launched some unsuccessful offensives southwest of Donetsk City.
East of Zaporizhia Ukrainian forces continue with numerous counteroffensives with some fighting near Orikhiv yesterday.
Around Kherson the Ukrainian counteroffensives also continue with more Russian ammunition depots also targeted. Russian forces here are it seems reinforcing and opening up new resupply routes including with Pontoon bridges.
Edit - interesting
4 Likes
Any estimates of how many material RU ammo depots there are in Ukraine and how many have been destroyed?
1 Like
About a week ago the count was 100 ammo dumps and command centres destroyed.
As for how many ammo dumps currentlyā¦ previously it would largely be freight depots on rail lines around 30-40km from the front. Now they will be increasingly scattered, multiple smaller stashes. Which is a long way to say NFI.
5 Likes
Interesting snippet from The Telegraphās Ukraine The Latest podcast. They visited Kyiv this week, interviewed a bunch of senior government officials including the Vice President.
When asked about HIMARS targeting. No active targeting info is coming from NATO, but they are getting human intel and technical support such as satellite feeds. They tell NATO what they are intending to hit. NATO responds along the lines of āunder no circumstances are you to use a HIMARS rocket on that targetā or āgo for itā. Reading between the lines it means itās a military target. Basically the western militaries have a good idea of whatās happening and are making sure Ukraine doesnāt target a non-military asset.
2 Likes
Three unrelated but notable bits.
4 Likes
Bump
3 Likes
One of the most mind-blowing things Iāve discovered on this journey is the Russian sabotage and assassination campaign to blow up ammo supplies destined to Ukraine and kill those facilitating the transfers.
One of the reasons for Ukraineās ammo shortfall is that ammo either has been destroyed in other countries or arms dealers fear death at Russian hands if they sell.
2 Likes
