@ArthurD thanks for your contributions to this thread, it’s a treasure and your wisdom shines through
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LMFAO. It’s a distant second to the early day’s of radiation sickness from digging defensive lines in the Chernobyl forests, but this is an outstanding example of laughable stupidity from Russian tacticians.
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hope that works out ok.
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I personally think this is Darwin’s theory of evolution - removing the stupid from the gene pool. Would like to thank our comrades for their participation/contribution - just a few more to go.
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Same here Arthur.
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Latest Jomini maps. The text of the tweets make more sense if you read the thread.
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Yep all the best @ArthurD !
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8.2.22 Update, day 160 of Russian invasion.
Belarus:
Belarusian forces continue to maneuver along the border, but no signs of an assault are seen or expected. Belarus continues to send supplies eastwards to RU units in Belgorod.
Drones confiscated from “border violators” will be supplied to border guards and UA intel services.
Kyiv/ West Ukraine (1):
RU fired 8 X-555 long range Air-to-ground cruise missiles from its heavy bomber fleet over the Caspian sea, 6 of which were intercepted by AA defenses, and 1 more by a fighter pilot. The 8th missile hit an anti-air defense in Lviv region. Vinnytsia was targeted by 2 of these missiles, the same city which was hit with devastating effect 2 weeks ago.
The Miami Police commissioner announced they are sending 167 firearms to UA police and TDF fighters in Irpin. This was a result of a gun buyback in Miami called “Guns 4 Ukraine”, and also a number of other confiscated weaponry.
The UA government stated that while there are issues with supply of heavy weaponry, and more is needed, they have no issues with personnel in the UA military. Specifically, the UA southern commander stated “We have already mobilized half a million people, and we can mobilize another half a million if necessary”.
The UA government also stated that if someone is unwilling or unable to follow conscription orders, that they should help in another way.
Sumy/Chernihiv (2):
Today, RU forces fired with mortars and grenade launchers intermittently throughout the day in the Sumy region, with 62 reported strikes and no causalities.
Kharkiv (3):
RU forces attempted an attack from Dementiivka in the W and Ternova in the E, directed towards Bairak. The demeniivka attack was countered, and the Bairak assault was repelled with UA artillery fire.
RU forces continue to fire on UA forces and their supply lines, especially to the W of Kozacha Lopan, where heavy amounts of both UA and RU artillery fire are being exchanged. There also appears to be increased UA artillery fire onto RU backline regions over the last 72 hours, including not only the RU base in Hoptivka which is supplying the RU attempts towards Dementiivka, but also across the Siversky Donets river to the E and striking RU positions in Khotimlya.
RU continues to fire into downtown Kharkiv with MLRS.
Izyum/Lyman (4):
There is an ongoing UA push towards NW Izyum region, primarily from Husarivka, which is being targeted by spoiling attacks from RU forces and heavy artillery, as well as dealing with minefields designed to slow their progress. With reports of RU troop withdrawals from this area, it appears that RU is attempting to strike the UA forces which are currently believed to be W of the Siversky Donets river in the vicinity of Ivanivka, Levkivka, and Schaslyve. This would place the front lines approximately 16 km from downtown Izyum, and within UA artillery range.
There is evidence of UA artillery striking along the P79 highway and its detour routes, which are part of the main RU supply line into Izyum, and approximately 30 km away from where the nearest UA controlled town and its positions are believed to be. Given that UA can range out this distance, it would place all main roads into Izyum, including the Eastern one from Oskil, within artillery menacing range.
Immediately south of Izyum, along the M03 highway, we have seen large amounts of UA shelling all the way up from the frontlines around Dolyna/Krasnopillya to within 5km of the Izyum city center. The heavy UA bombardment of the main routes leading south from Izyum over the past 72 hours, especially around Kamyanka, may indicate either suppression of RU supplies or RU forces themselves transiting the highway.
Borodychne continues to be a no mans land, with RU forces allegedly being pushed further back from their positions NW of the town.
RU forces continue to fire into Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, with a Russian UAV having been located over Kramatorsk.
Siversk/Lysychansk (5)
RU forces have attempted attacks both NE and SE of Siversk, with heavy bombardment and RU helicopter support in both. RU attacks towards Hryhorivka along the northernmost road into Siversk have been repelled, and UA forces continue to fire into Bilhorivka immediately E, along with artillery duels along the central axis between Verkhnokamyanske and Verkhnokamyanka, the central axis of attack.
In the SE, RU forces have managed to consolidate their hold on the rubbelized town of Berestove along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, and have pushed further east into the hills. They appear to be attempting a 2-pronged attack into Ivano Darivka or Vyimka, from both the Berestove and Spirne RU controlled areas. UA continues to fire artillery into the backlines and supply zones of both, indicating a lack of RU breakthroughs.
Overall, while RU continues to leverage its artillery and airstrike advantages to attack UA positions in Siversk and further south along the Siversk-Bakhmut highway, there has been very minimal gain in the past week by RU forces around Siversk, short of pushing through the rubblized village of Berestove which has been targeted for well over 6 weeks now.
Popasna/Bakhmut:
The situation around Bakhmut has worsened in the last 72 hours, with RU forces seizing territory on multiple axes to the NE and SE of the town in the last 24 hours following heavy artillery duels. Specifically, RU forces have consolidated their control over all of Pokrovske 5km NE of Bakhmut city, and began assaulting towards the city proper. Additionally, RU assaults towards the UA strongpoint in Zaitseve to the SE of Bakhmut have made gains, now positioned to menace the strongpoint from its immediate E and NE.
Even further south towards the UA strongpoint of Kodema, RU forces have apparently made gains by circumventing the long-standing UA defensive lines which have been active since 2014 to the SE, by way of this ongoing assault coming from the Popasna direction, and specifically NE and E of the strongpoint.
All across the lines, UA continues to fire artillery into RU backline regions, especially in recently captured Pokrovske and the RU supply/command hubs supporting this RU offensive in Nova Kamyanka and Klynove.
There is speculation that RU forces have repositioned some elements from the Siversk front towards Bakhmut, and are placing an increased priority on seizure of the city.
Donetsk (6):
Residents of Donetsk city and Horlivka continue to post about the presence of PFM-1 airdropped “butterfly” mines, which are the same ones used by Soviets in Afghanistan, and designed to maim individuals rathern then kill them, in a very general placement method. RU continues to place the blame on UA forces, but thus far there has been no evidence of UA troops having access to these air launched munitions in other areas of the war where they would have been useful, while there is extensive evidence of RU forces launching these cluster mines.
RU forces continue to press towards Pisky, south of Avdiivka, with a renewed offensive and heavy shelling. RU claims to have pushed UA troops out of the Butivka Coal mine SW of Avdiivka, a major UA defensive point.
UA continues to fire into RU held backlines in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, striking a unit stationed in a hotel. RU immediately sent all wounded into Russia, and then spread disinfo saying that nobody was hurt.
Mandatory evacuation from the Donetsk region has begun.
Mariupol (7):
The situation remains grim in Mariupol. A civilian who remains in the city within visual range of Azovstal has made several comments on what life in a nearly dead city is like. The absence of medicine and cleaning supplies is noted, but apparently the russians have brought more food into the city itself, as humanitarian aid stamped with symbols from the DPR.
Apparently a previous infestation of Cockroaches and rats in the housing complex, none have returned since the bombardment of Azovstal began in earnest. A number of residents have apparently gone crazy, remaining in blasted out buildings and refusing to leave under coercion from their neighbors or threats from occupying troops, who have now apparently decided they’re not worth the hassle.
A large quantity of fruits and vegetables have been supplied from the local RU controlled region, and food has been imported from Belarus apparently. The stores apparently round up receipts, which angers the shoppers who have little money left. Only black pigeons remain in the city, as all the white ones have been long ago eaten.
The RU occupation government is apparently located in a clinic for treating impotence before the war, and their propaganda truck has broken down- now a man stands outside and shouts out the propaganda of the day.
The RU supreme court classified the Ukrainian Azov Regiment as a terrorist organization, and banned its activities in russia. This is believed to be a method by which to apply increased pressure to captured Azov fighters in POW camps.
The waitlist to leave to Berdyansk is apparently some 60k people long, taking several months.
An UA partisan operation E of Mariupol damaged a russian military base that was part of coordinating grain looting operations.
Zaporizhia/Southern Axis (8):
RU forces continue to leverage artillery and rocket fire across the southern front, but launched no major offensives. There are rumors of RU troop redeployments to this area, in an attempt to blunt a forthcoming UA offensive.
After recent flooding around Enerhodar, the evac route for civilians to Zaporizhia via Kamyanske has become impassable.
Russia has refused to provide detailed information on which Ukrainian POWs were killed or injured in the July 28 Olenivka prison attack, which is alleged to have been an explosive device triggered in the POW camp, rather then an MLRS attack.
Kherson (9):
Per the UA government, 53 settlements have been liberated in total within the Kherson region, an uptick from the 46 reported on August 1st. There is evidence of the more-advanced UA loitering munitions present in the area striking RU groups.
In southern Kherson region, RU tried to unload rail cars under the cover of a smokescreen to avoid himars strikes, but there was an explosion which prompted the train to immediately take off in the direction of Crimea. This comes after another RU military train was struck in the southern region 2 days ago, which had more than 40 traincars carrying personnel and equipment.
Mykolaiv continues to be targeted by S-300 missiles. An RU spotter was arrested by the SBU.
UA forces struck RU troops at Chornobaika, and shot down 3 cruise missiles. 3 UA airstrikes were carried out on RU positions. RU is attempting to form an assault group to the NW of Kherson city, but there are reports of explosions in SW Kherson city, near where the main RU communications/command hub is located on a separated island.
Reportedly, RU lost about 12 tanks and 4 APCs to the W of Kherson in an attack up the coastline towards Bilhorivka.
RU forces shot a civilian bus with an RPG, killing several aboard.
Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea(10):
Reportedly in the black sea, there are 2 missile ships and 3 submarines, as well as 3 transport ship equipped with up to 16 Kaliber cruise missiles.
The first ship with Ukrainian grain has arrived in Istanbul en route to Tripoli in Lebanon. It will be inspected this morning, then resume its transit.
An RU VDV BTG has arrived in Crimea, apparently en route into Kherson.
General:
Yesterday, Ukrainian forces eliminated:
140 x soldiers (Total 41,170)
3x APC
4x Artillery (0x MLRS)
2x vehicles
1x helicopter
3x UAV
The greatest losses were in the Bakhmut regions.
Russian citizens have been denied access to the international TOEFL english language test, which along with the ETS and IELTS exams are the most requested language proficiency tests in the world, and often required for foreign students to enter European and American schools and educational programs. In a late breaking update, there are reports that access has been limited, but not totally revoked.
The US provided another military aid package to the tune of $550 million USD, including 75k rounds of NATO 155mm ammo, and HIMARS rockets.
Iran may have sent the first batch of UAVs to Russia for field testing, along with technicians. Additionally, there are reports that Iran will increase its cooperation with Russia in other methods.
RU has said that their “volunteers battalions” will still receive their enlistment bonus of about 3300 USD, but it will be held for 90 days until after they are enlisted. There are reports of RU servicemember’s nor receiving their promised pay and benefits. There’s rumors this is being done to both stem people grabbing the money and deserting, and also to avoid paying out of the soldier is killed within 90 days of enlistment (60 days after their training completes).
Looking forward:
RU forces on the N side of the river in Kherson region are likely under significant pressure, given their supply situation and the
RU forces near Kherson are increasingly on edge for potential UA strikes, and the movement of ammo depots further behind the lines indicate the concern applied.
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AFAIK the safe passage deal for UA exports only applies to the Black Sea. After Istanbul it has to go through the Sea of Marmara and exit through Canakkale to the Med, not blocked to warships?
Correct.
There’s active sea freight in the Black Sea to Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Georgia and Russia. The Black Sea isn’t closed, just the patch near the Ukrainian coastline. All that this deal does is allow “safe” travel out of the Ukrainian ports and into international waters. The checks in Turkey are just satisfying Russia that the shipments aren’t being used for anything beyond the treaty.
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But, according to the IMO, there are still a lot of stranded merchant ships and crew around UA ports. Not all of them are bulk cargo ships. The west coast north of Constanta is mostly off limits and the Danube channel at the mouth is not so safe for shipping.
NATO has US troops in Romania doing drills , in addition to NATO aviation.
Yep. Non-grain ships stuck inside Ukraine are stuffed until the war ends.
But there’s substantial traffic now, especially since Russia abandoned Snake Island.
This reminds me of this surreal bit of history.
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WarMonitor’s take on it
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I know what you are all thinking…
How can computer models predict the outcome of a conflict.
Modelling conflicts is an exacting science, it takes into account the normal hardware and tactic and such, plus many abstract things like motivation, quality of training, corruption in the ranks etc.
It appears to be pretty accurate now.
Read the article.
Quote from article:
“With this caveat in mind, The Economist asked Dr Czarnecki to use mcosm to predict an outcome for the Russia-Ukraine war’s current, artillery-based phase two. He determined new values for variables that reflect improvements by Russian forces in areas which include information processing, operational sequencing and military judgment. Ukraine, he assessed, has held on to a number of qualitative edges, but these have shrunk. And Ukraine remains heavily outgunned. Dr Czarnecki typed in the data and let the model rip. It forecast “operational success” scores of five for both Russia and Ukraine—in other words, a grinding stalemate.”
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Pontoon ferry service at Kherson
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