Motivation would include ‘morale’ which we hear often in terms of low Russian morale, so as you say this is factored in. Morale can collapse quickly.
Maybe what the modelling shows is that to win, Ukraine needs to cause catastrophic collapse in Russian morale, or NATO need to significantly increase level of support; and for Russia to win - as ArthurD has been saying - they would need to mobilise the nation.
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No algorithm or software can measure the extent of the spirit or the strength of human will. No matter the number of tanks, artillery, jets or munitions, bombs or bullets, the fighting spirit of the combatants is the only true metric. In this respect, Ukraine holds the advantage and always will.
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Like they did in the Crimea and the separist regions without third country support?
I don’t know if I could draw that comparison. Was Ukraine fighting for it’s life? Was 2014 - 2021 a different phase? One may be able to say they fought Russia and its proxies (LDPR) to a stalemate position from 2014 in the Donbas with a military/material deficit compared to Russia…but post 24/2/2022 it is a totally different story, isn’t it?
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All that is going to ruin someone’s day.
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Trump’s latest stupid statements
Re-watching this 2019 video of Trump telling Zelenskky what he should do is peak cringe now, in 2022 after all that has happened since then.
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That was an interesting read, when I learnt about the Suez Canal in geography in 1988 it’s absurd they didn’t mention that.
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Did you learn about Nasser’s nationalisation of the Canal, opposed by France and Britain ( and Menzies trying to be a mediator) the US staying right out of it ?
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No I did not. Guess I’m not going to bed just yet!
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My sentiments also
The latest chapter in wtf news…
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Thanks, Arthur
But seriously your analysis has been fantastic throughout this conflict. We’re better informed about this on Blitz than most regular folk who watch the news.
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My money is on Turkey 
to vote no.
Does it have to be 100%?
Yep. 100%.
Turkey already played that card for domestic political reasons. There’s an election coming up and Erdogan had complained about letting Greece in historically without extracting concessions. Got a bunch of stuff this time out of Finland, Sweden and the USA.
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