Russia invades Ukraine - 2 - from 4 May 2022

The T-90 is a T-72 with a fancy paint job.

Absolutely zero reason to think they’d blow up any differently.

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Ukraine had a T-72 fleet of around 2000 tanks 20 years ago.

I’m very curious where they are and what is needed to get them functioning. Ukraine could be in a very similar boat to Russia in terms of deep storage.

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UKR Artillery at p212 of IISS 2022 reference at free download link I provided earlier:

ARTILLERY 1,818
SP 607+: 122mm 292 2S1 Gvozdika; 152mm 302: 249 2S3
Akatsiya; 18 2S5 Giatsint-S; 35 2S19 Msta-S; 203mm 13+
2S7 Pion (up to 83 2S7 Pion in store)
TOWED 515+: 122mm 75 D-30; 152mm 440: 180 2A36
Giatsint-B; 130 2A65 Msta-B; 130+ D-20
GUN/MOR • 120mm • TOWED 2 2B16 NONA-K
MRL 354: 122mm 203: 18 9P138; 185 BM-21 Grad;
220mm 70 9P140 Uragan; 300mm 81+: Adler; 81 9A52
Smerch
MOR 120mm 340: 190 2S12 Sani; 30 M-1938 (PM-38);
120 M120-15

Does not mention any in store except for “up to 83 2S7 Pion in store” cf 13+ in service.

I don’t know what information is available to compare accuracy of IIIS estimates for storage in UKR vs RUS.

But with 7 years of artillery duels in Donbas it would not be surprising if stocks had been used up.

Edit add: BTW Library Genesis also has IISS Military Balance for previous years if you wanted to check how numbers have developed over time.

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No, I suspect they have few in storage now. They updated a lot to more modern variants, most are probably already deployed in the field, but a large number were sold off to various African nations iirc decades ago.

That’s probably why they wanted the Polish T-72’s.

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Confirmed re tanks on same page:

ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
MBT 858: 385 T-64BV; 235 T-64BV mod 2017; 100
T-64BM Bulat; 82 T-72AV/B1; 4 T-72AV mod 2021; 47
T-72AMT; 5 T-84 Oplot; (34 T-80; 500 T-72; 578 T-64; 20
T-55 all in store)

Only lists storage for 20 T-55

I did not include tanks earlier because I am focussed on the expected artillery duels.

My impression is that tanks are significantly less important where shoulder mounted missiles are available.

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I think you’re absolutely right, but to be fair, it’s been part of the discourse for longer. Decades. The unfortunate fact is that governments were simply not prepared for a pandemic and were not dedicating enough resources for it.

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image

You’ve lost another what?

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No idea if that report about the frigate being struck is true. But even if it’s not, the Ukrainian strategy of finding and killing “marquee” targets has been brilliant on several fronts. Obviously, in the field impacts are huge. Various Generals, command posts, the Moskva, fuel depot’s, transports etc. They’ve done it brilliantly. But it’s also brilliant on the messaging / propaganda front. Boosts morale on one side, decreases morale on the other. Sets the public tone of the war. Even this recent bout of news about hunting down T-90 tanks is as much about public messaging to the Russians as meaningful battlefield progress. No one should assume Ukraine losses are small - I won’t be surprised if the reality that emerges later is painfully high - but they’re dominating the high value target field.

And it all hinges on one overarching thing - Western intelligence abilities. The difference in organisation between the two sides in electronic warfare capability is stark. Russian troops - including FSB agents - have been using domestic phone networks out of necessity. Ukraine are finding and destroying over-the-horizon targets down to a few square meters.

The lessons from this war will change defence budgets and tactics everywhere. Drone use and Anti-drone defences will become very high squad level priorities. Infantry wielded anti armour weapons will be sought after. And Tank battalions probably need to revert to what they were first envisaged as - mechanised cavalry for highly concentrated , mobile breakthroughs with the flanks expanded by infantry co-ordination and forward airpower. If the campaign becomes static, and they become stationary blockhouses in urban warfare, they’re buggered.

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Young Russian men objecting to the prospect of being used as cannon fodder in a military operation, after all they are not even being asked to defend their country, just being told to participate in Putins geriatric folly.

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Speaking of Putin, here we have again, exemplification of the only thing a little known but smart minor aristocrat, Baron Acton is known for today. Why do people keep falling for dictators, when they know this is true almost every time a dictator comes along?

“Power tends to corrupt, absolute power corrupts absolutely.”

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Ukraine war has dragged on, admits Putin ally Lukashenko

7 hours ago

Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir PutinReuters

Ties have occasionally been rocky between Mr Lukashenko and Mr Putin but they’ve grown closer in recent years

A key ally of Russia, authoritarian Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, has defended the war in Ukraine while indicating it has not gone to plan.

He told the AP news agency that the operation had “dragged on”.

Belarus shares a border with Ukraine and Russia sent troops from there when it launched its invasion.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin helped Mr Lukashenko cling to power in 2020 after his widely disputed presidential re-election sparked mass protests.

In turn, Belarus’s long-time leader has given his backing to Russia’s invasion and critics have said he is little more than a vassal and accomplice to Mr Putin.

In his interview with AP, Mr Lukashenko said that Russia’s leader had no choice but to act because Ukraine was “provoking Russia”.

But he added: "I am not immersed in this problem enough to say whether it goes according to plan, like the Russians say, or like I feel it.

“I want to stress one more time: I feel like this operation has dragged on.”

Mr Lukashenko said he wanted the war to end, saying Belarus had “done and are doing everything” to stop it.

Map showing areas of Ukraine currently under Russian control

By calling it a war, he went further than Russia’s own description of its invasion as a “special military operation”. Moscow has justified the war as an effort to “demilitarise and de-Nazify” Ukraine - which is considered a baseless pretext.

Mr Lukashenko also said that any suggestion that Russia might use nuclear weapons against Ukraine was “unacceptable because it’s right next to us”, but added he did not know whether Moscow intended to use them.

Although Belarus has provided a platform for Russian forces it has not sent its own troops in. On Wednesday it began snap military drills which it said posed no threat to Ukraine.

Belarus was already under Western sanctions following the 2020 election, and faces further measures over its role in the conflict.

It was one of only a handful of countries to back Russia’s invasion at an emergency UN vote.

Out of the 193 UN member states, 141 condemned the war, with some major countries like China and India choosing to abstain.

Not because its wrong just wrong wrong wrong to use such a weapon against a country you invade without justification, a country that gave you all their nuclear weapons in a settlement that guaranteed you would never invade said country. Russia is morally wrong to invade, it does not honour its agreements and cannot be trusted.

I suspect all the nuclear powers, in particular the US and Russia are modelling all the pre-emptive strike scenarios to see if they can “win” a nuclear exchange. I am really really hoping that the MAD doctrine still holds. Its probably the only thing that’s stopping disaster at this point.

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He’s backpedaling hard, wanting to avoid retribution/sanctions for his part in it

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Putin has (supposedly) apologised for Lavrovs "jews are Nazi’s " brain implosion.

Lmfao.

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absolutely agree Saladin the US has been pivotal in the areas of intelligence and the war use of drones has been an eye opener

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early signs of a revolution IMO

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Seems that Russia will only agree to evacuation of more civilians from the steelworks if the Ukraine soldiers surrender.
Thus, in the event that Russia captures the steelworks, resulting deaths of civilians within would be blamed on Zelensky - spin that he is prepared to sacrifice Ukraine civilians as well as the military for no benefit to the nation.