Does it make sense for the Ukrains to stop the orcs from escaping Kerson, and capture/kill them rather than let them fight anoyher day - I’m assuming that knocking out the ferry escape routes is easypeasy. ?
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The big question then is what capacity does Putin have left to intervene and fulfil treaty obligations? The mobilisation farce shows that Russia is already at maximum effort with their committment in Ukraine, and even that isn’t enough for battlefield success.
The big concern Putin has in Belarus probably isn’t NATO invading, it’s a popular uprising against his puppet, similar to what happened in Ukraine in 2014. He had to use his army to intervene in Belarus after their last election went against Lukashenko so the concern there already is that he doesn’t have overwhelming support of the population. And what sort of forces can Russia send in to bolster the puppet state if required? Mobilised, untrained conscripts? If the Belarussian army goes into Ukraine, will it outperform the better equipped Russian army? Against the Ukrainian army that is now fully supported by NATO logistics? And who does that leave to prop up Lukashenko back home when the body count starts adding up. Russia can sort of isolate it’s citizenry from the outside world’s media, but there’s pretty much nowhere in Belarus that Ukrainian or Polish broadcasters can’t reach. Putin will probably continue to use Belarus as a place to launch missiles from, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he uses Belarussian army troops and bases to train up conscripts. I’m just not sure that Lukashenko is spoiling for a fight that he likely won’t win outright, and weaken his own position in power. He’s likely trying to walk the tightrope to stay in power and placate Putin without getting fully committed in combat in Ukraine.
Having said all that, it could all turn to ■■■■ very, very quickly.
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That relies on a full capitulation of Russian forces in the Kherson region. Their will to fight has been very questionable thus far, but every soldier’s worst nightmare is a fight is complex urban terrain against a desperate enemy.
You can hope for your enemy to surrender, but should never assume it when planning. I’m sure Ukraine can take out the ferries, but they must also consider the Ukrainian civilian casualty risks. We’ll know in the next few days…
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Yeah I think my question was more: if Poland, for instance, went to war with Belarus, is there a treaty that immediately triggers war with Russia?
Polish and Lithuanian troops on the border, the 101st airborne, there’s a lot of scope for an error
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The Saga thread says “Pffft…!”
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Western Ukrainians have always openly hated Russians because of the the atrocities they carried out in the 1930’s. Moving towards the east, the Soviet education system and fear kept a lid on things. Many Ukrainians like my partner never knew the horrible history until the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990a, as well as getting access to internet and historical records. Also, Babushkas felt safer to tell their stories.
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Interesting thread on what is being learnt in Ukraine and what it likely means for military procurement into the future.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1583924719065055232?s=46&t=ZsPK1FHBjuum628uaiG1hw
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Which I always thought was a waste of time, but turns out they know what they are doing.
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As forecast in an article of 20 April
- Ukraine weapon switcheroo flushing Soviet arms out of Europe
And, the winner is the US government subsidised private sector defence industry.
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the only way that would happen is if Belarus attacks poland or the Baltics. Joining the fray in UA would probably only draw limited response.
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Yeah but it only takes an accident when two armies are at each other’s borders…
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Belarus has been subject to sanctions for some time.
It could attract further sanctions, as the US has responded to direct Iran support to Russia.
The US and others are also tightening the screws on third countries supplying products containing US technology or components ( sanctioning individuals , refusing access to financing and freezing assets)
Is Turkey only holding out on Sweden or are they holding out on Finland too?
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Haven’t seen either. Assume Erdogan is trying to get more leverage behind the scenes or using it for the upcoming election.
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Erdogan is not happy with either Sweden or Finland
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Does a right wing government in Sweden involve a shift in accomodating Turkey’s wish list?
Timing of elections in Turkey may be relevant. Erdogan has imposed censorship on media criticising the government
Cheers. I knew about the gripe with Sweden but didn’t know same gripe was also with Finland.
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