A damn tragedy
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Is it HIMARS o’clock yet?
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The old saying … It’s always HIMARS O’clock somewhere in the world!
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That is sad.
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Surely they can’t carry losses like this for too much longer.
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That is War. russian style.
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So what’s the summary of where this war is at, how it’s likely to end and when?
Really difficult to get a read at the moment because it is very muddy which is making it hard for any real offensive movement from the Ukrainian side.
At the moment Russia is throwing bodies at trying to take Bakhmut with very little success but there’s not much movement on any of the other fronts.
Weather is likely to be cold enough to freeze the mud in the next couple of weeks which may provide the ability for a meaningful Ukraine offensive, likely in the south. How that offensive goes against a more deeply entrenched Russian force will give a good indication of whether we are at a stalemate at the moment or whether Ukr can continue to regain lost territory.
Also watch the northern border where there is a credible risk that Russia and maybe Belarus are going to try and have another go. That feels like a suicide mission to me but they don’t seem to mind a suicide mission.
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Great summary. We are currently in Groundhog Day, but that largely weather driven. Both sides will have plans for when the ground freezes.
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Some videos don’t need subtitles.
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General Summary
It is Day 318 of the russian Invasion. Ukraine Continues to Live and Fight On. The unusually warm Winter in Europe has made conditions tough. The front is in a bogged-down state. The majority of the heavy fighting being in the Donbas in the East from Kreminna down to Donetsk in Bahkmut and Soldenar. Fierce fighting for these towns is resulting in heavy casaulties for both sides but especially the russians. Other axis of the front in the south are relatively stable. russia continues daily cruise missile and suicide drone attacks against civilian infrastructure and Ukrainian cities. The liberated city of Kerson is shelled daily, including with incendiary ammunition, which is a war crime.
Projected future waves of russian mobilization and the possible opening of a second front from Belarus or from russia into Kharkiv along a heavily fortified and protected Ukrainian northern border are predicted to stretch out the war but both options, if taken by russia, are predicted to end in an embarrassing defeat. The Ukrainian civilian and military leadership is confident of a total military victory this year - that is, the russian army being completely destroyed and/or pushed out of Ukraine and the complete territory of the country to its 1991 borders (including Donbas and Crimea) being liberated by Late Summer (August) 2023. Time will tell if any of these scenarios become reality.
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Former EFC President being quoted again.
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