Russia invades Ukraine - 3 - from 23 Oct 2022

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1617956859360718849
The reference, if unfamiliar, is to the ‘Pepe Silvia’ sketch Lol:

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This will be hard and won’t go smoothly. Good summary of the mistakes US forces make with Abrams and the dangers they cause.

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Closest to midnight the nuclear clock has ever been.

“The Swiss Security Policy Commission of the National Council wants to allow Germany, Denmark and Spain to transfer weapons from Switzerland to Ukraine - Neue Zürcher Zeitung.”

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Thanks for your observstions. I guess , argeeing to disagree is probably where we land, until there’s some historical analysis ( in 5- 10 years time) by hopefully “insiders” as to the motivations behind the public stances being offered up today. BTW, i certainly found it strange that he was presuming that Ukraine had already won. ( I presume that statement was subject to Ukraine getting the hardware it needs - to me it becomes a much more powerful observation were he to add that caviet, i.e. give them the gear, they ll deliver.)

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MSM have been documenting Russian troll targeting of Germany in MSM and social media , as part of its anti west propaganda.

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Germany need to stand up. Now.

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To anybody who still thinks General Mark Hertling’s posturing about his great expertize provides an authoritative guide to anything I say 3 things.

  1. When he gets proved completely wrong he simply moves on to predicting that what he claimed was impossible will be hard and won’t go smoothly, which would of course obviously be true of pretty much anything in a war, but which is not what he was saying.

  2. He will just keep repeating this cycle.

  3. See above.

Edit: Fixed name

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US isn’t the only provider of ammunition. 155mm isn’t the only caliber in use.

Between all sources, production should be roughly what Ukraine is using. Ukraine may be able to ramp up artillery use if the war goes into 2024.

Spain, UK, Italy, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Czechia, Pakistan, Bulgaria, Poland, France, Slovakia all produce artillery and mortar ammo to some degree. There’s probably more.

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We agree on that!

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I think the General’s views are quite valid and should be listened to. The US is making a decision to push M1s into Ukraine despite the risks. That doesn’t invalidate the complexities and problems being highlighted.

Ukraine broke the vast majority of their PzH2000s in weeks because training and maintenance were insufficient. That required the fleet to be transported back to Poland for major repairs. These things are real and you cannot half ■■■■ maintenance and logistics.

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More strong leadership from Zelenskiy, what an inspirational leader he has proven to be. Genuine national change from the old ways.

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Agree, that Perun video made it pretty clear that UA need to tap into a heap of sources. But USA shifting to a high manufacturing capacity that is approaching the levels that UA are using is definitely a good thing. They also need to replenish their stores (and those of allies) as well.

Over 1m shells per year is huge, I recall Perun talking about EU generation of ~300k/year as being the current main source?

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