We have to.
As the saying over here goes, when the US sneezes, CA catches a cold.
Ok, the wider problem is a ludicrous political and financial system. It isn’t just the military bureaucrats.
I also have a low opinion of “bean counters” but the broken politicized financial system is not acting on what any competent accountants reports would indicate.
I do not know whether there were any such competent reports from competent bean counters but periodically the GAO does produce a retrospective account of how stupid the decisions were.
Who to blame is a matter for a proper enquiry, perhaps by the GAO.
We are agreed that there is a serious problem which needs to be fixed urgently and from which lessons need.
Don’t need to agree in advance of an inquiry as to who is to blame or as to what should be done for the urgent fix.
My prejudice is that Pentagon staff with the specific military assignment of ensuring strategic overcapacity for ramping up munitions production should have filed written reports saying that they were unable to do their job because of specific political interference. I think that’s their job just as it is the job of politicians to mislead and confuse the public about everything.
My prejudice is also that it is quite unlikely much can be done to rapidly expand production at the rate required using the buildings, management or staff at the plants exposed to the light of day by the various articles:
I agree with the statement quoted from the first link above.
Brig. Gen. Reim said that the new production line being built in Garland, Texas, will be mostly automated, with human workers mostly just performing inspections. “What you saw [in Scranton] was very manual, very labor intensive. It’s kind of Korean War vintage,” he said. On the newer lines, he said, converting production from one type of ammunition to another becomes simply a “software change.”
My sarcasm was about it was that I take it to be blindingly obvious that you don;t put half a billion funds into Korewan War vintage manual labor intensive plants to rapidly expand production in an emergency situation resulting from having previously failed to retire them. They are on 3 shifts and I don’t think it is possible that they will contribute much to the expansion of production.
I think diverting half a billion or so in that direction is not just corrupt portk barrelling but INCOMPETENT corrupt pork barreling that is costing lives as well as billions.
Instead you put the funds into rapidly expanding the producers of the modern equipment used in modern plants, which do indeed support:
converting production from one type of ammunition to another becomes simply a “software change.”
Such plants do exist around the world and others are already under construction which can be accelerated.
Their management and staff are capable of expanding production at much higher rates than anything left over from the Korean war.
So my answer is a definate YES, not a “leaning to yes”. But we don’t need to argue about that.
I don’t think it will take years. It would have taken years if it had been done optimally. But it will HAVE to be rushed at greater cost and HAS to be as we don’t have years.
Meanwhile soldiers will be killed in Ukraine, stockpiles will have to be reduced to dangerously low levels and extortionate prices will have to be paid to equipment suppliers to divert their production capacity from building other more profitable new capacity in industries that handle large things made of metal.
Obsolete plant LITERALLY has “bells and whistles”. Modern plant uses the same sort of embedded controllers that fly aircraft and drones.
We don’t need to argue about any of that either.
Can we just agree that somebody bungled and there needs to be a full inquiry to learn lessons that could help avoid further prolongation of this war?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech in the UK Parliament
"London has been with Kyiv since day one! From the first seconds and minutes of a full-scale war.
Britain, you started helping when the world hadn’t had time to figure out how to react. Boris, you united others when it seemed completely impossible. Thank you. You all then showed your courage and character. Strong British character. You haven’t compromised Ukraine. Consequently, you have not compromised your ideals. Consequently, you have not compromised the spirit of these great islands. Thank you so much!
Our countries have seen different times. Our nations defended freedom in World War II. We were separated by an iron curtain. Our people have experienced crises and growth, inflation, periods of social losses and social gains. It was difficult, but we always found the strength and endurance to move forward and achieve results. And this is the basis of our and your traditions.
Ukrainians and Britons defeated the fear of war and got time to enjoy peace. Whatever we face at different stages of our and your difficult history, you, and we, and all of humanity have achieved one result: evil has lost.
We will always defeat evil. This is at the heart of our – but also yours – traditions. However, the horizon never stays clean for long. Once the old evil is defeated, the new one tries to raise its head.
Do you feel that this time the evil will fall? I see it in your eyes now. We think the same way with you. We know that freedom will prevail. We know that Russia is losing. We know that Victory will change the world! And it’s going to be the change the world has been in need for a long time."
The one I like the best from a Canadian (and here you can easily substitute “the rest of the world” for Canada) is:
“Canada watches the US with a Porky Pig snout pushed up against the border.
The US looks back with Mr Magoo eyes”.
Existing plant running 3 shifts. Adding extra shifts, wildly implausible.
Existing management and staff has no experience or competence with modern equipment. Risk was that proposals to invest in them would be exposed. It has been.
Building new plants more rapidly and at much greater cost than if this had been exposed and fixed earlier. Very high cost and unacceptably long delays that will cost lives.
Risk of not doing so and making excuses for not having done so.
Prolongation of Ukraine war, increased likelihood of being unprepared for Chinese fascist attack on Taiwan.
The only good thing about having to increase capacity at such a rapid rate is that the resulting overproduction of capacity to produce the equipment (and skilled staff) needed for such acceleration will be available for discouraging invasion of Taiwan.
That overcapacity isn’t a risk. It is a certainty and a benefit.
L8R gone
It’ll blow your mind if you dig into the politics that drives US defence spending.
Bases with no purpose are kept open purely because the local congressman wants to keep jobs in his area.
Aircraft are kept flying beyond retirement age because the servicing is done in a particular district.
Ammunition stockpiles are ignored because shiny toys are better announcements.
The pentagon is generally competent, but they are limited by some absolutely insane spending limitations. That being said, German armed forces suffer about 1000x more worse.
What I would personally do with the Scranton plant is a quick bottleneck analysis. Within the limitations of that infrastructure, what can be bolted on to speed it up?
People
- where do extra bodies speed up a process?
- how quickly can you build up skilled workforce size to operate 24/7 shifts?
- do you have staff churn due to underpaying?
Inputs
- how are the steel blocks being delivered? Are they the right size? Are they in a package that is quick to push into the forge?
- is the material handling equipment slowing down the rate of steel being fed into the furnace? How can that be upgraded and sped up to keep the furnace operating at 100%.
- are there gaps in production due to quality or supply hiccups?
Process
- is the furnace being used at full capacity?
- can the dwell time in the furnace be reduced through higher temperatures, stronger hydraulics, pre-heating of ingots with a bolt on extra in-line furnace?
- is the explosive filling happening at worlds best speed? What equipment tweaks can be made?
Outputs
- automated painting
- automated QC
- faster conveyor belts and material handling
- ergonomic improvements.
- parallel process lines in new building.
Maintenance
- how often does the line go down?
- are spare parts available on shelf?
- do you have 24/7 maintenance coverage or are you delaying for call ins?
- what old stuff should be replaced to give improved uptime?
The site will have oodles of improvement ideas that were awaiting funding approval. There would be a heap of low hanging fruit that the team would have been waiting for years to implement. Throw them the challenge of what is needed and they would have brainstormed improvements on the shelf ready to go. Most of these would be pretty cheap and quick to implement compared to building something from new.
Ideally you would have a new plant 20 years ago, but artillery has been viewed as an archaic weapon of minimal value to US doctrine. This was never considered to be a priority for investment.
Our High Commission in Ottawa is a valuable resource for reporting on US politics and policy shifts
Estonia just published their intelligence update. Some high quality analysis of Russia and Ukraine.
They are orcs.
There are older oaks that still survive
Buda Sights | Maksym Zaliznyak Oak | 1100 Years Old Oak (ukraine-kiev-tour.com)
Maksym Zaliznyak oak tree - Wikipedia
bump for Taojas
Thanks Albert
Russian soldier ended up under heavy artillery fire, understands it may be his final video.
Dmitri on Twitter: “Russian soldier ended up under heavy artillery fire, understands it may be his final video. https://t.co/Azi7fIMoxb” / Twitter NSFW
