Russia invades Ukraine - 4 - from 14 March 2023

Oil refinery tank farm is on fire.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1668478265613332480?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg

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“But yeah, unfortunately this time we really ■■■■■■ in terms of information. But I assure you we have a lot to show: how M2 destroyed RUA tanks, how Leos survived multiple hits etc”

https://twitter.com/osintua/status/1668489898548920320?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg

There’s a few photos in that thread, but that comment there caught my eye.

Good thread on the upcoming breaching of fortifications:
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1668482100050141184?s=20

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Interesting. I see that someone asked what he meant and the response was “info field” (google translate). So I interpret that as field reconnaisance, prob drones? He does mention that there are lots of mines so perhaps specifically planning/detecting/clearing mines?

I think they are keeping a lot of good work very quiet. That things are going well, but because they are keeping things under wraps it leaves the Russian propaganda as the only information being released.

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Vid roundup - War in Ukraine: 12 Jun Report

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Meanwhile in russia, the Unholy War Priests of the FSB branch known as the Russian Orthodox Church, unsurprisingly, finally drop their pretense of “Christianity”.

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Undoubtedly.

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My guess 90% revenge, 5% to shut up Girkin, Solovyov etc, 3% for lack of clear military advance and 2% destroying morale.

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This is very obvious :joy:. Prizoghin and Wagner have achieved hero status by taking Bakhmut. It only cost 60000 casualties and any chance of Bakhmut being livable in for the next 15 years.

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I wouldn’t be surprised if you are right. But pure guesswork also allows for wild speculation about other possibilities. My wild speculation leans to them not accepting advice to wait for Abrams/F-16s in the next phase but shape the next phase as best they can by shaping Russian will to fight - eg by forcing Russia to mobilize.

What directions they can go in depends very much on how the enemy performs. Where they can hold logistically till more equipment arrives may differ from where they want to reach in the meantime, as long as they can also withdraw safely.

There is an interesting pair of “defensive lines” 15 km apart east of Mariupol and facing in both directions that may not currently be well defended:

A breakthrough south east from Bakhmut could cut off Donetsk and promote panic.

Anything that does provoke panic could result in steps that do not look possible at present.

I believe they assess the center of gravity as being the will to fight of the Russian people and will aim their offensive with that in mind. Spectacular effects on that will to fight may be more important than being able to hold spectacular gains.

L8R

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Question was:

What does “we really f u c k e d in terms of information” mean? Did we screw up on the info field, or in terms of the lack of some info, which had a very negative effect on the actual combat operations?

From context I took the answer as meaning that they have lots of good images of destroyed enemy equipment etc to tweet but cannot use them due to opsec restrictions so enemy is currently doing better on “info field”.

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Ingenious

ДЗМ - 1, Дистанційний Знешкоджувач Мін.
“Remote Mine Neutralizer TM62 with MHF/MVP fuses. Ukrainian development, developed during the war in cooperation with the sapper units of the SES and the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
She was tested at the Interregional Center for Humanitarian Demining and Rapid Response.
Now it is used by SES employees and employees of the Armed Forces and TRO in combat missions.”

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Ukraine don’t have much experience with some of their equipment, and no experience with a land war of this scale (arguably no one on the planet does save a few WW2 survivors, if any remain) , but they’ve shown themselves to be anything but stupid, and quite inventive.

So if you look at the known Russian prepped defences, it suggests to me that the Tokmak push is , at least currently, a fixing operation or feint. Multiple defensive lines , contoured terrain and obvious tactical allure is a tough nut to crack, and you wouldn’t want to blunt your main weapons on a solid wall. The Ukr moves here haven’t yet reached the main defences and I have to wonder if they really want to, atm.

But further East, if various mock ups are accurate, the line thins out dramatically.
Vuhledar was mentioned two days ago and today there’s chatter about Volnovakha under threat. Defensive constructions here look more sporadic and certainly not concentric lines in depth. Punching through here looks distinctly likely, but the risk is two badly exposed flanks if they try to break out southwards or eastward. Depending on Russian forces capabilities of course. Perhaps they’d actually turn West and try roll up the Russian front line, forcing a retreat from the lines or risk entrapment. Himars and Stormshadow will have to limit/interfere with troop movements either way. If they strip the Tokmak area to counter attack.the Volnovakha breakthrough, then Ukr might seriously assault the lines in front of Orikhiv.

Short version - we may still be seeing shaping attacks. Just my idle thoughts on what the current reports seem to be.

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Really?

How can they justify “Blessed are the peacemakers” as a heresy?

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Just doesn’t apply to all manufacturers of dairy products.

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I know. It’s dumb. They are strictly Old Testament.

New Testament doesn’t vibe with the warmongering

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Addendum: some russian trench works are not impressing

PS I would call the russian army ■■■■■ but they lack warmth and adequate depth

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