Undoubtedly.
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My guess 90% revenge, 5% to shut up Girkin, Solovyov etc, 3% for lack of clear military advance and 2% destroying morale.
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This is very obvious 
. Prizoghin and Wagner have achieved hero status by taking Bakhmut. It only cost 60000 casualties and any chance of Bakhmut being livable in for the next 15 years.
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I wouldn’t be surprised if you are right. But pure guesswork also allows for wild speculation about other possibilities. My wild speculation leans to them not accepting advice to wait for Abrams/F-16s in the next phase but shape the next phase as best they can by shaping Russian will to fight - eg by forcing Russia to mobilize.
What directions they can go in depends very much on how the enemy performs. Where they can hold logistically till more equipment arrives may differ from where they want to reach in the meantime, as long as they can also withdraw safely.
There is an interesting pair of “defensive lines” 15 km apart east of Mariupol and facing in both directions that may not currently be well defended:
A breakthrough south east from Bakhmut could cut off Donetsk and promote panic.
Anything that does provoke panic could result in steps that do not look possible at present.
I believe they assess the center of gravity as being the will to fight of the Russian people and will aim their offensive with that in mind. Spectacular effects on that will to fight may be more important than being able to hold spectacular gains.
L8R
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Question was:
What does “we really f u c k e d in terms of information” mean? Did we screw up on the info field, or in terms of the lack of some info, which had a very negative effect on the actual combat operations?
From context I took the answer as meaning that they have lots of good images of destroyed enemy equipment etc to tweet but cannot use them due to opsec restrictions so enemy is currently doing better on “info field”.
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Ingenious
ДЗМ - 1, Дистанційний Знешкоджувач Мін.
“Remote Mine Neutralizer TM62 with MHF/MVP fuses. Ukrainian development, developed during the war in cooperation with the sapper units of the SES and the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
She was tested at the Interregional Center for Humanitarian Demining and Rapid Response.
Now it is used by SES employees and employees of the Armed Forces and TRO in combat missions.”
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Ukraine don’t have much experience with some of their equipment, and no experience with a land war of this scale (arguably no one on the planet does save a few WW2 survivors, if any remain) , but they’ve shown themselves to be anything but stupid, and quite inventive.
So if you look at the known Russian prepped defences, it suggests to me that the Tokmak push is , at least currently, a fixing operation or feint. Multiple defensive lines , contoured terrain and obvious tactical allure is a tough nut to crack, and you wouldn’t want to blunt your main weapons on a solid wall. The Ukr moves here haven’t yet reached the main defences and I have to wonder if they really want to, atm.
But further East, if various mock ups are accurate, the line thins out dramatically.
Vuhledar was mentioned two days ago and today there’s chatter about Volnovakha under threat. Defensive constructions here look more sporadic and certainly not concentric lines in depth. Punching through here looks distinctly likely, but the risk is two badly exposed flanks if they try to break out southwards or eastward. Depending on Russian forces capabilities of course. Perhaps they’d actually turn West and try roll up the Russian front line, forcing a retreat from the lines or risk entrapment. Himars and Stormshadow will have to limit/interfere with troop movements either way. If they strip the Tokmak area to counter attack.the Volnovakha breakthrough, then Ukr might seriously assault the lines in front of Orikhiv.
Short version - we may still be seeing shaping attacks. Just my idle thoughts on what the current reports seem to be.
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Really?
How can they justify “Blessed are the peacemakers” as a heresy?
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Just doesn’t apply to all manufacturers of dairy products.
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I know. It’s dumb. They are strictly Old Testament.
New Testament doesn’t vibe with the warmongering
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Addendum: some russian trench works are not impressing
PS I would call the russian army ■■■■■ but they lack warmth and adequate depth
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Ukrainians have only 4 cheeks to turn.
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I laughed heaps when I finally got that.
Welcome back by the way!
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Good commentary
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“Strong pro-Ukr interview by the new Bulgarian Defense minister. Says Bulgaria won’t be secure until Russia loses this war and goes back within its own borders. Pledges that Bulgaria will join the European ammunition procurement initiative asap. Counters recent Ru fear-mongering…
claims that his govt plans to send Bulgarian troops to fight in Ukraine thus: we might send people as soon as Ukraine wins the war to learn from the Ukr army, which can teach us a lot.”
https://twitter.com/popovaprof/status/1668024624804687873?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
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The strength of our warriors yields results, and I thank everyone who is now in combat for this -
Address of President Zelenskyy 13.6.2023 - YT
I held a meeting of the Staff today. The key reports were from the commanders of the operational directions that are the most important and hottest – Khortytsia and Tavria.
The battles are fierce, but we are moving forward, and this is very important. The enemy’s losses are exactly what we need. Although the weather is unfavorable these days – the rains make our task more difficult – the strength of our warriors still yields results, and I thank everyone who is in combat now, everyone who supports our combat brigades in the relevant areas.
Generals Syrskyi and Tarnavskyi reported today on the successes we have already achieved, on the points of the front where we need reinforcement, and on the actions that can break more Russian positions.
Thank you to our guys for every Ukrainian flag that is now returning to its rightful place in the villages of the newly de-occupied territory! Thank you also for the significant replenishment of our exchange fund!
There was a report from the Commander-in-Chief on the general situation, and from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Security Service of Ukraine on stabilization measures in the de-occupied territory. We are working very actively to supply the necessary weapons and ammunition. There was also an intelligence report on the enemy’s options. We are maintaining and strengthening our operational dominance. I am particularly grateful for Bakhmut as we are increasing our control in this area.
Today’s meeting also included a final report on the readiness and non-readiness of shelters across the country, in major cities and in Kyiv. Ministers Klymenko, Kamyshin and Kubrakov reported. The results are disappointing, to say the least. On Friday, relevant draft decisions will be prepared – both on those responsible and on ensuring an adequate level of protection for our people in all Ukrainian cities.
I also held several meetings on our international activities. This week, as always, will be very meaningful. First, we are preparing new weapons support from our partners for our warriors. Second, we are preparing to involve more global actors in the implementation of the Peace Formula. Third, we are working to make the Vilnius Summit truly meaningful. I’ll let you know every detail.
And one more decision worth mentioning. The title of Hero of Ukraine has been posthumously awarded to Lieutenant Colonel of the Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Bohach. For extraordinary personal bravery, for repeatedly detaining and eliminating enemy saboteurs. For the defense of Mariupol and for such heroism and self-sacrifice, which leave no other option for Ukraine and Ukrainians but victory.
Glory to all who are fighting for Ukraine! Thank you to each and every one who is now in combat, at combat posts and on combat missions! We are moving forward step by step!
We believe in victory. It will come!
Glory to Ukraine!
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absolutely,
I mentioned something similar about a month ago. The risk of two fronts is mitigated by rolling the existing defensive positions from the rear and clearing new lines of communications as you advance from the east.
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