Russia invades Ukraine - 4 - from 14 March 2023

  1. Just finished listening to whole podcast while walking, including portion from 21’ on twice. Kofman is certainly worth listening to and “War on the Rocks” even provides a standard .mp3 download link, so I will certainly listen to any future episodes that are linked here.

  2. I don’t have anything useful to add to the summary but was listening for the reference to CB90s as it surprised me when assault boats for amphibious infantry were listed together with Bradley and Marder IFVs. Did not hear any reference. Suspect it was confusion with other reports that described CB90 as an IFV and separate reports of CV90, which actually is an IFV going to Ukraine.

  1. Thanks, found it. My understanding is that the real issue is “Mission Command” with recently recalled reserve officers at battalion level and above still having a “Soviet” culture of top down micromanagement direction of subordinate units and using their control of ISR assets to enforce their superior “Situational Awareness” instead of unleashing initiative from below.

My view is that both the “Situational Awareness” and actual Target Acquisition engagements using drones can be can be made more available for use by the lowest possible echelons via low bandwidth continuous updates to the ATAK Android Tablets for team awareness that I believe are available below platoon level and could be available to every fire team.

That is why I was (and still am) looking for clarification/confirmation of my picture of communications and related power supplies in front line positions.

Will return to that and earlier discussion with @elfm by writing a description of how high tempo connection between sensors, deciders and shooters is feasible now at near machine speeds.

A 2020 Congressional Research Service report on “ISR Design for Great Power Competition” makes it clear that this is still aspirational rather than operational reality for US forces and is a clear gap in urgent operational requirements for Ukraine that could be filled by available technology.

Connecting Sensors to Shooters

The U.S. military contends that future conflicts within a sophisticated, highly-contested, A2/AD
environment will be won by the side with an information advantage, enabling the ability to
outpace, outthink, and outmaneuver adversaries across multiple domains (space, air, land, sea,
and cyber).23 To maintain its information advantage and dominate this new battlefield, the U.S.
military is reportedly adopting a network-centric approach (connecting every sensor with every
shooter) so that it can move data at machine speed and overwhelm an adversary by attacking from
all domains.24 However, the emphasis is placed on the ability to find and fix a target, not
necessarily finish the target, according to the Chief of Staff of the Air Force (CSAF), who stated
“it doesn’t matter as much what mechanism is used to destroy a target as it is to be able to rapidly
locate and characterize it.”25

Some analysts take a more skeptical approach to JADC2. They raise questions about
technological capabilities and unrealistic ambition of fielding a network that can securely and
reliably connect sensors to shooters and support C2 in a lethal, electronic warfare-rich
environment.35 Others question who would have decisionmaking authority across domains in
JADO and question the human role in making JADC2 decisions in real time.36

For the front lines of an artillery war, including those front lines being breached by mechanized infantry and armour, fielding a network that can reliably connect drones to shooters simply isn’t optional. The capability to support C2 in a lethal and EW-rich environment needs to be deployable at the speed of relevance. That means completion of RDT&E in advance of Russian EW getting its act together, perhaps with Chinese assistance. If enemy EW does not turn up for battle then actual deployment can be delayed, but it needs to be prepared for now, not when drones start having a 3 flight life span again.

That network is the core of a network centric Drone Force and implies decision making by engagement commands formed between drone operators and shooters who are not necessarily part of the same chain of command below battalion or brigade level.

The concept of drones being organic to lower level units seems to me to amount to “traditional” hoarding of resources by unit commanders that needs to be broken for the resources to rapidly respond at the speed with which drones are capable of responding to requests for support from areas that are adjacent to but not under the same command as the area from which they are launched.

So I am still hoping for more feedback on:

Will then get back to earlier.

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I’m completely in agreement with you that drone recon works best if used at the lowest possible level. I suspect once the war is over and Ukraine has a chance to breathe, they’ll nail down the ideal tactics in this space. In the meantime, much of their command structure is evolving in silos, with some areas performing differently than others. Long term that should give good data on what does and doesn’t work, short term it will cause waste.

Regarding the trench shelters, I suspect Ukraine is doing a bit of everything here. They’ve got a lot of good experience from the Donbas war, which Russia didn’t absorb. They’ve also brought in production lines from other industries, so a lot of creative solutions will be landing at the front which may or may not be great. And then you’ll have frontline engineers just cobbling stuff together with what they can find. I don’t expect much standardisation with equipment, it’ll largely be based off what the unit can get their hands on. Again, after the war they’ll get a good feel for what is the ideal setup, right now they are patching their way through.

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Macgyver GIFs | Tenor

Why Ukraine’s ‘MacGyver’ military is winning | The American Legion

image

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Hows this…looks like a russian Uragan MLRS was hit by Ukrainian artillery, the onboard rockets started cooking off, one of which flew off and hit another russian Uragan MLRS.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1636332146129350656

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Can never forget this. They repeat this so often and each time it’s heartbreaking. Bucha was huge in the news too but there’s so many other atrocities that we don’t even get time to reflect on.

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That bottom one was my avatar here on blitz for 5-10 years, lol.

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Cool.

Context:
Said in response to Lindsey Graham’s threat that US should shoot down any Russian plane coming near a US plane in international airspace.

This may be true or generalsvr might be full of ■■■■

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That may be the context of the statement but the statement itself is laughable in the context of what they have just done.

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Haven’t had much time to review but it’s bookmarked

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One of the biggest takeaways of this war is that Ukraine’s very fast take-up and adaptation to military use of drones and their subsequent unfettered air dominance over the battlefield with what were, until quite recently, considered toys has given them a distinct edge over the russians. The cumulative psychological and physical toll on the russian army of 24/7 day and night harassment by drones dropping grenades on their buildings, infantry, tanks etc. would be hard to quantify, maybe devastating is too mild a word. There are now so many of these videos online - thousands upon thousands - that they are hardly worth watching. But this is just impertinence: (NSFW)

https://twitter.com/bigSAC10/status/1636339830056448000

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Lol

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I’m puzzled where this is coming from.
Statements attributed to the Defence Mnister, sourced from Turkish news agency , refer to monitoring of the situation. Nothing on his official site.
There has been chatter about the USS Nitze in Turkish ports, but the ports were not in the Black Sea and the ship is currently in Malta.
On the other hand , the US does have a presence at Romanian ports.
Turkey has suspended scheduled talks with Russia and Syria, but the suspension may have nothing to do with the Black Sea incident.
The UNSG is staying out of it so far. As of yesterday, his spokesman said their only information was from media reports, that it was a bilateral issue between Russia and the US and that , if asked, the UNSG would call for the parties to avoid escalating the issue.

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Don’t know. Also can’t find anything. That account is generally quite solid, he’s a French guy and there may be coverage in non-English media. Watch this space until there’s better confirmation though.

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Damn. I was hoping these Archers would end up in Ukriane. They were built for a sale a few years ago that fell through and have been in storage since.

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Yesterday’s Katz video has an interesting perspective on tactics for dividing the regime:

Post-Putin Elites | Options for Those Seeking a New President (English subtitles)

I think it is essentially an argument against others in the Russian opposition making grandiose threats against the criminals running Russia to no useful purpose. As Katz points out such threats only encourage them to hang together so to avoid hanging separately.

But it is presented as a pitch directly to people in the “elite” explicitly offering them the opportunity to retain most of the wealth they acquired by criminal corruption and retain both their liberty and opulent lifestyles if they help ensure that liberals, rather than people more likely to just shoot them come to power following collapse of the regime.

If the Navalny team and a united opposition had forces able to credibly make such an offer it could really have an impact. Certainly there would be people in the “elite” anxiously studying what the opposition has to say as they consider their future.

I think a more believable offer, of fair trials and no death penalty could have greater impact, because it would be more deliverable.

The sort of mob violence that is likely to follow the return of mobniks from a collapse in the Russian front certainly won’t be good for Russian democracy.

A revolutionary party would certainly want to minimize the chaos, would order officials of the old regime to remain at their posts, and offer jobs to anyone who could help with rebuilding and would enforce strict discipline against looting and private revenge.

But the liberal program sounds too much like the transition from the Brezhnev regime that allowed the parts of the old nomenklatura plus other criminal adventurers to become “legalized” owners of “private property” in a more conventional capitalist system than the Brezhnev “years of stagnation”. The West supported this transfer of wealth from nominal state ownership to oligarchs as the foundation for evolution from outright gangsterism towards the Western model in which both fantastically wealthy oligarchs and the workers are both better off so there is more “stability”.

It didn’t quite work out. Somebody should:

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Yep, that’s clearly happening, as it should. The MacGyver cobbling stuff together mentioned by @Taojas and @wannabe is working and even the dropping of grenades from drones, which is highly inaccurate has had a major psychological effect as mentioned by @Taojas and is suppressing daytime movement.

I’m not looking for an “ideal” setup but at what the natural evolution from existing networks and power supply systems cobbled together would be to further increase tempo and effectiveness of the ISTAR fires system while reducing the attrition rate for both personnel and equipment.

The “Artillery for Uber” using Android Tablets is actually based on Cursor On Target software about two decades old and was developed by hackers within the US military bypassing the usual idiocies to cobble systems together using standard commercial techniques. The possibily of cobbling systems together is itself based on the fact that they all use standard Internet protocols can can be connected by standard cables.

There is a lot more that can be done with the latest stuff that enables further cobbling together but first requires deployment of the latest stuff. In particular CMOSS FACE and SOSA with Jetson Orin on OpenVPX cards. Just as the existing cobbling together required Android Tablets, ethernet cables and cheap camera drones that weren’t available when current officers were trained in map reading, forward observers and fire control.

L8R gone

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