That old chestnut? I was in Moscova during the fall of Soviet Union in the 90s. There where areas where many disenfranchised Americans and other westerners could live and be further disenfranchised so they would rerun turn to their western homes. I was there for the vodka and the women.
Steven Seagull as the local governor.
If Russia allows political considerations to drive operations, it may decide to reinforce Bakhmut to prevent Ukraine from quickly recapturing its flanks, but that could leave its forces more vulnerable elsewhere where Ukraine has better prospects for achieving a breakthrough. twitter.com/RALee85/status…
The RU might do a lot of different things, but most of the options they have available to them are in response to whatever UA decides to do. UA have taken the initiative around Bakhmut and with that they now get to choose where and when to strike next. RU will be reacting to what UA do next, UA gets to call the shots all along the front. pun intended.
Zelensky did an interview with Eurovision, shown by the Eurovision public broadcasters.
It should be available in EL on BBC and Irish public broadcaster.
Apparently he spoke in Ukraine, EL translation used the term ‘counter offensive’.
There’s desperate and then there’s this:
Just heartbreaking:
Long overdue.
This could get awkward.
Yesterday’s Katz was:
Ukraine’s Attempt at Reclaiming Its Land | Breakdown of Options (English subtitles)
English subtitles stopped at 18’03" of 19’36". I used Settings auto-translate from Russian auto-transcribe for the conclusion which was 3 options:
- Ukraine’s offensive succeeds like Kharkiv route
- Russian defense repels offensive leaving positions unchanged
- Partial success but not complete.
There was some analysis but I did not find it useful.
Today’s Katz is much more interesting and also perplexing:
Prigozhin Invites Defense Minister to Bakhmut | Russian Army & Its Gangs (English subtitles)
More background on Prighozin (largest media mogul, in charge of internet troll operations so thoroughly familiar with public opinion).
Describes evolution of state monopoly on force that all Kings and autocrats work to centralize into rival armed gangs as having roots in 2014 denial of responsibility for the separatist armed forces.
Says “everybody” now wants Ukraine to eliminate Wagner group and armed forces now preoccupied with blame game for expected defeats.
Expects some sort of unified command to be re-established following next round of defeats.
I cannot summarize adequately and am not sure if I understood his argument.
Could be my prejudice rather than following naturally from Katz’s argument but I would assume Putin having caused this mess he cannot be the one to fix it and neither can his regime that went along with it simply replace him with one of his circle.
Anyway Katz doesn’t say that, but neither does he repeat his stuff about elections.
Speaking of my prejudices, I mentioned martial law and mobilization in response to Ukrainian successes “with or without Putin”. Did not intend to imply that current regime could simply replace Putin. Was thinking, though not clearly expressing, my ongoing expectation that such a comprehensively failed fascist regime is likely to be replaced by more competent fascist opponents of the current regime - whether from army or security services and/or “novorossiya”.
Such a regime change could well order the retreat from Ukraine that Putin cannot order and it could be a serious fighting retreat that inflicts maximum damage as it retreats back through the Donbas and Crimea. As in Kharkiv and Kherson the troops might be far more capable of avoiding a rout if they are given sane orders to retreat by a regime determined to rebuild and fight another day instead of just sinking into oblivion.
Was referring to that sort of “regime change”, not just change of leader a couple of days ago when I said:
As emphasized by Ryan, “loyalty” is much more important than competence for current regime that has lost elite support as well as popular support. They have every reason to fear people less subservient and more competent being in charge of armed forces.
Seems pretty clear that large numbers of fascists in Russia would like to replace both Gerasimov and Putin. China is not giving the impression that it would be less likely to provide necessary munitions etc if somebody more serious (and less keen on “irresponsible” waving of nuclear weapons that China does not want waved) were to take power.
Long term future is with the Russian opposition to the war, when it gets its act together. But a response to further Ukrainian victories could well be a more competently led fascist regime with more support from China.
Likewise for:
Outcomes are inherently unpredictable as Katz and everyone serious says and knows. I don’t see much point arguing about what outcomes are the most likely. The most dangerous outcomes that a reasonably competent enemy could plausibly go for are the ones it is most necessary to prepare against so I want to focus on them.
Also, related to playing “Diplomacy”:
The US political and social system is in serious decay. Life expectancy is actually declining, interest rates below the rate of inflation are solving nothing, a major economic crash is increasingly plausible and the next elections look like being a rerun of the previous with a more fed up population.
Putin’s hopes that might save him are likely to be illusory but unreliable allies could mean the war drags on, with China supplying Russia.
Some serious rocket launches going on at Bakhmut, if this is HIMARS then that is a lot of ammo
Soviet Grad rockets. Unguided with a 300m spread.
There’s a report that Ukraine called in a danger close grad strike near their position in the assault this morning. Which is… kinda insane.
While looking through the twitter thread for full video, which was posted by @barry_day above I came across another on the same theme of total disintegration in Ruscist propaganda:
Both are worth watching.
I don’t think they are even pretending the current regime can win.
But neither are they fleeing the country.
Again, it’s my prejudice anyway, but watching these people disintegrate on camera could not incline Russian viewers to imagine the current government can continue the war.
I don’t think anybody should assume it will remain in charge.