Russia invades Ukraine - 4 - from 14 March 2023

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Any truth to this one? I hope not.

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Local administration confirmed following via Ukrinform

Google translation of original telegram message:

Today, during air alarm, the enemy attacked Khmelnytskyi.
Unfortunately, we have a critical infrastructure.
The object is outside the settlements.
We keep calm.The relevant services work.
Some trains will follow the changed schedule today.
Details later.

Our news is here

The stuff about seismic detection and $500 million ammunition depot is so far only from Russian sources - including the two tweets cited.

BTW I followed the sarcastic comment about “more sanctions McFaul” to this article:

How to Get a Breakthrough in Ukraine - The Case Against Incrementalism - Michael McFaul - January 30, 2023

McFaul clearly advocates far more than just “more sanctions”.

As long as Russian soldiers occupy their country, Ukrainians will fight. They will fight with or without new advanced weapons, with or without harsher sanctions, with or without money to help them run their country. Understanding this key insight about the Ukrainian mentality today leads to an obvious policy recommendation for the West: help Ukraine win as fast as possible.

Following the links to other articles in “Foreign Affairs” from there I got to the following also worth reading:

Beyond Ukraine’s Offensive - The West Needs to Prepare the Country’s Military for a Long War - Michael Kofman and Rob Lee - May 10, 2023

Why Putin Needs Wagner - The Hidden Power Struggle Sustaining Russia’s Brutal Militia Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan - May 12, 2023

All three are unpaywalled.

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Telegram is reporting that 2 rare EW Mi-8 (only 20 made), SU-35 that were escorting a SU-34 fullback as part of a strike package were all shot down by unspecified Ukrainian SAM /AAMS

Whole ‘strike package’ was destroyed.

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Today’s Katz

Russians’ Thoughts on War in the Run-Up to the Ukrainian Offensive (English subtitles)

Thoughtful analysis of the gradual shift in views among pro-war and undecided sections based on detailed survey interviews.

Strongly recommended as antidote to the usual stereotyping (deliberately fostered by Russian fascist propaganda).

Reminds me of the way Australians shifted from absurd justifications for Australia joining in an invasion of Vietnam via a tortuous process that went in all directions - including some still stuck, but most recovering or not knowing anything about it.

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Grenades have much smaller bang than Hollywood would have me believe.

And a ■■■■ load of rounds wasted there too.

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Almost unwatchable with the quick pans and zooms.

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With the old bolt action single shot rifles, more care was taken with aiming and firing. Now everyone has a machine gun such care is not not needed or taken. In other words in the past it was and shoot, now it is point and spray, little wonder then that a lot more bullets are fired and wasted.

These losses are significant for the RUAF.
How significant remains to be seen at this stage, but the general reaction appears to be to limit the missions of various RU aircraft. If the army loses air cover things will become even worse for those consigned to trenches.

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It looks like this was a glide bomb strike run, with a fighter-bomber being protected by a fighter. Russia has been hammering the lines with glide bombs over the last few weeks.

Hopefully this makes the Russian airforce a bit more risk averse. They’ve generally avoided anything that exposes their aircraft to harm, it looks like they felt the glide bombs were a safe mission. This could change that calculation.

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