Happens most days, but the current hostilities are bringing attention to it.
Edit - here’s the result of the Forte10 flight.
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Following the UNSG spokesman’s daily presser, negotiations still going on the Black Sea Grain Corridor deal . The spokesman keeps stressing that the UN is not a party to the initiative, the UN only signs as a witness to the tripartite agreement
The initiative provides for a 120 day rollover. Russia has submitted a letter that it has extended the agreement for 60 days.
Behind the scenes the UN is trying to resolve payment issues in regard to the separate MOU on Russian food and fertilisers.
Until that is sorted, Ukraine has little choice but to accept a 60 day extension, irrespective of the technical legal compatibility of the Russian decision with the grain corridor tripartite agreement. Turkey , which calls it the Istanbul Agreement, is staying silent.
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I’m expecting this to grow to 40 as Poland refurbishes their remaining fleet.
And other news
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Quality front line report showing the conditions they are fighting in.
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According to Ukrinform, Russia has reduced the number of its warships in the Black Sea from 19 to 16, four with 24 Kalibr cruise missiles.
One warship is in the Sea of Azov
7 more with 20 Kalibr cruise missiles in the Med.
Earlier in March there were 19 warships in the Black Sea and two submarines
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The sacking of that LCol seems to be unpopular understandably so, as explained here
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I’ll give that post a like if the light is still green after the election.
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International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant against Putin for war crimes.
Russia don’t recognise the ICC.
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Today, 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “the Court”) issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova.
Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, (i) for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute), and (ii) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts, or allowed for their commission, and who were under his effective authority and control, pursuant to superior responsibility (article 28(b) of the Rome Statute).
Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, born on 25 October 1984, Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Ms Lvova-Belova bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute).
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But the ICC and the world recognize Putin.
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I’ll leave the Iraq oil discussion for later and possibly an article elsewhere with link here. But this seems an excellent illustration of the the theory that Russia invaded Ukraine was a “land and resources grab” is simply based on preconceptions rather than actual analysis.
Having reached a correct conclusion that Russian blather about “NATO expansion, ethnic cleansing, nazis” was just “blah blah blah” in support of its obvious war of aggression in Ukraine it simply becomes obvious that:
- That was exactly what Russia did in attacking Georgia in 2008.
- They used exactly the same excuses.
- Both times “once the conflict is finished Putin celebrates the return of more of the former USSR to the Russian federation”
Then this precedent becomes evidence in support of the current war also being a land grab for resources - which plays into the hands of those in the USA campaigning that it is just some “territorial dispute”.
The “both” in the third point is perhaps intended to refer to 2014 Crimea but like Ukraine, I regard that as the start of the same event as the present invasion rather than a separate conflict. At any rate all 3 points are intended to apply to 2008 in support of the preconception that 2022 was also a “land grab for resources”.
Each of the 3 points happens to be wrong.
- Georgia started the conflict not Russia. This was documented in an official EU report which I linked and quoted extensively here:
If there was a land grab it was a grab by the Georgian government for the autonomous territory of South Ossetia, which it had signed a peace agreement not to invade. But that invasion was prompted by assertions of Georgian nationalism against a population that simply were not Georgians, and spoke the same East Iranian language as the North Ossetians on the other side of the Georgia- Russia border. It was not a grab for resources. The economy of South Ossetia is largely subsistence agriculture and dependent on Russian assistance. There was nothing to grab.
- The declared Russian position when responding to the attack and pushing Georgian forces that had encircled the South Ossetia capital back into Georgia and forcing the signature of a new agreement to stay out said nothing whatever about “NATO expansion, ethnic cleansing, nazis”.
A collection of their announcements is archived here
I only looked at the first, dated August 8 and the summing up on Septemeber 17
But you can check the rest for yourself.
- The summing up was recognition of South Ossetia and Abikhazia as independent of Georgia, not acceptance into Russia.
What’s left after removing all 3 points is nothing but confirmation of the power of preconceptions.
So turning that same approach of relying on preconceptions about Iraq to draw conclusions about the current war we have:
I have no idea how Hilary Clinton’s emails could shed light on the Bush administration’s policies.
But certainly one doesn’t need evidence confirm the notorious fact that Condoleeza Rice admitted:
That policy was notoriously aimed at propping up autocracies to ensure cheap oil. Instead of cheap oil it resulted in total catastrophe on September 11, 2003.
The policy that the Clinton and all earlier administrations followed had produced a stagnant mess breeding terrorist mosquitos. It should have been abandoned decades earlier. But the foreign policy establishment had dedicated their entire careers to it and it could only be reversed following 9-11.
Even then they couldn’t announce that they were going to war to reverse previous policy and undermine the autocracies they had been supporting. Instead the official policy was about Weapons of Mass Destruction. As soon as the war started they began to talk about something else:
Now, we are taking a different course. We are supporting the democratic aspirations of all people.
But that was immediately followed by discovering that they could not find any WMDs at all (they had assumed they would come up with some, even though that NEVER WAS and NEVER COULD HAVE BEEN what the war was about). Naturally under those circumstances statements about having reversed well known policy were not widely believed.
But the fact is they did it. They held free elections and two decades later that is still how Iraq unlike the Arab autocracies is governed. That triggered an Arab spring with free elections in Egypt and a subsequent backlash and defeat just as 1848 was defeated. But the middle east was destabilized as intended and those regimes are unlikely to survive the next round.
A glance at the “evidence” confirming that they did it for oil confirms the opposite. For example here’s the introduction of the 37 page academic paper that Taojas listed, which goes on to list all the uncompelling reasons that had been put forward for believing that the policy had not been reversed:
What role did oil play in the decision to invade Iraq in 2003? We still do not know
exactly why the Bush administration went to war against Iraq, and we may never know.
Certainly, no compelling evidence, either in the form of declassified documents or participants’
memoirs, has yet emerged indicating that oil was a prominent factor or constant consideration
in the thinking of decision makers within the Bush administration. But …[here’s some uncompelling reasons that were spruiked at the time and can just be repeated anyway]
https://scholarworks.gsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1089&context=political_science_facpub
As for the deployment of US capital to the “value add industries” just take a look at the actual statistics for service contracts licencsing results:
China has more than UK
Russia and Netherlands add up to more than USA
Many other countries also have lots.
Iraq’s oil is its main source of revenue so naturally it had to be protected from damage during the war. Production more than doubled from 2 million barrels per day before the Gulf War to 4 million in 2015.
Naturally US oil companies wanted to privatize it. Equally naturally the democratically elected Iraqi government refused.
Naturally the US State Department had elaborate plans for how to run Iraq in accordance with the old policies. Naturally the Bush administration was denounced by the Foreign Policy establishment for simply ditching them and leaving it to the Iraqis to figure out how to run their country.
So people cite those plans, or even Hilary Clinton’s emails to prove that what did not happen did.
I won’t reply to all of this, it’s a lot
But…
South Ossetia is definitely considered to be rich in untapped resource wealth regardless of current economy and is also a key Black Sea port.
The Russo-Georgian war started very quickly after the BTC pipeline was switched on in 2006, which was a U.S. sponsored play to reduce European energy reliance on Russia by bringing Caspian Sea assets into play.
Prior to the war breaking out the Russian military and GRU had been very active in South Ossetia, arming, aiding and coordinating with separatist groups just like they did in the so-called people’s republics in Luhansk and Donetsk.
Yes, there are other things at play, but to not recognize Russia has been aiming for diplomacy based on energy dependence and is prepared to destabilize, wage war, and annex to achieve it seems deliberately naïve to me.
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From the Intelligence Update it sounds like the Russian noose around Bakhmut is still tightening.
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Hey @ArthurD, @Taojas and @elfm, you guys generally post in the Ukraine-Russo war thread. For a real experience of carnage, watch the game day thread (hint Sunday 15:20 onwards). Set yourselves to ‘stun.’
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Like Russia, the US is not a signatory to the ICC. Russia withdrew in 2016. The US has never been a signatory.
The US encourages recourse to the ICC , so long as it does not involve charges against US citizens.
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Interesting info in this thread
specifically
main reason for that is to enable security and surprise for reinforcement and counter attack or, more likely, a withdrawal (thinning out before the front units disengage)
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Don’t want to get into a long back-and-forth to-and-fro with you which just results in you relying on more and more constructed strawmen and more and more deeply pedantic side points simply for the sake of stubbornly ignoring and twisting the main point and thus we will have to agree to disagree anyway, but:
Drone dropped munitions are playing a much larger role that just a psychological role. Evidence in the form of thousand upon thousands of videos show the devastating effect drones are taking on russian manpower and materiel. Whole BTG’s have been taken out of the war. One case in point is an interview with one Ukrainian drone operator who had over 300 confirmed russian kills on video. He would be typical of many of Ukraine’s experienced drone operators.
Bump if you like drones…
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