It begins.
Maybe denial of ammunition to Wagner is connected to Putin wanting it to fail in Bakhmut. Finishes off Putin’s chef as a contender for his succession to President.
Low flying means harder to detect before it arrives (unless there is a coordinated detection system over the area that tracks and notifies). Low speed actually makes normal radar less effective and requires adjustment of radar parameters as well as wider distribution of them. Small size and low noise of cheap battery operated drones also makes it harder to detect.
A heavy machine gun aimed at a low flying drone that is detected before it arrives overhead can be effective with proper sights. More effective would be heavier munitions with fuzes that explode into shrapnel at the right height. Both require adequate detection - visual, radar and/or acoustic.
Light automatic weapons would not have the range plus height to be effective except when close to overhead when there would be a higher probability of somebody being hit by the bullets than of getting the drone.
The drones are not invulnerable. They have quite high attrition rates. We just tend not to see videos of the ones that get shot down. We do see images of Russian drones shot down but the videos from the drone itself recording them being shot down are not particularly interesting for Russians to release.
We don’t see images of troops from either side getting shot by bullets aimed upwards at drones. Perhaps it doesn’t happen often. Perhaps because they are not encouraged to attempt it often.
Perhaps neither side publishes such images much even if they did happen often.
Both sides need, and I expect will develop, coordinated means for detecting approaching small drones and directing local weapons such as heavy machine guns and fragmentation munitions against them.
Rapid fire canons mounted on IFVs will be particularly effective for point defence.
I doubt that the dropping of grenades on individual soldiers plays much more than a psychological role now. That psychological role would likely be reduced once such defences are in place.
It is still fundamentally an artillery war and shift to more use of mechanized and armoured forces will not increase the relevance of dropping grenades from cheap drones while it will not reduce the relevance of cheap drones for ISTAR.
Seems the Volvos - a mix of types - have already been replaced with purchases from Oshkosh US in 2020, so delivery should not take too long.
The Belgian media have noted that a Netherlands offer of mine hunters relates to 2025 delivery.
For its part, a Belgian offer of specialised mine hunters would not be available before 2024 ( still being built in a French shipyard)
Those guys all speak pretty highly of Wagner and Prighozin. It’s a bit of an indictment on the Russian economy though, that the only opportunities require risking your life. Would love to know the real numbers/losses
Militaries learning from Ukraine
That Forte is not at all forte
This is a fascinating development and I imagine it is also a significant strategic Russian ■■■■-up.
Another one.
Someone in the Kremlin decided that bringing down a US unmanned drone would create an incident that would cause the US to respond in an aggressive manner. I cannot see a single reason why they would have done it otherwise.
The US have responded in a way that just makes Russia looks silly.
I imagine that response now allows the US to put the onus on other european countries to perform the same surveillance with their kit. It also allows them to leverage their Turkish relationship and to posture about entering the Black Sea to receive their gear.
Whoever is running the show in Russia is busted
There’s a good chance that the drone is escorted by a couple of fighters with no beacon turned on.
Glad I could make a contribution to the Ukraine effort, albeit even so small
Do you think maybe that because Russia has a much slower turnover (‘democracy’) of government officials that they maybe still have too many people who think it’s the 1970s?
Or the 1930’s.
Maybe? The most convincing analysis I’ve seen is that Russia has psychological scars from the loss of prestige and wealth at the end of the USSR. So there’s an appeal to historical greatness. Kinda like a Russian MAGA movement.
A couple of scrambles between NATO and Russian aircraft in international air space off Norway.