Russia invades Ukraine - 4 - from 14 March 2023

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Seems a good use of your best and brightest


Who knew that recruiting convicted murders and other serious criminals wouldn’t be a good idea? Will this encourage others to follow their lead? This development will tie up a lot of resources that could otherwise be better employed. Chaos comes to town.


Vid here… :muscle:t2:

Russia blew up a medium sized dam in recent days. This was the main supply route to one of the sectors of the eastern front near Donetsk. Villages downstream are being flooded and supplies to that section of the front will be challenging to maintain.

But there’s a bigger problem. Donetsk has been absolutely hammered with rain in the last week. Big chunks of the area are flooding purely from the rain. The dam downstream is likely near capacity and now has a second dam worth of water flowing into it. It will likely overflow as designed. Downstream of that second dam is the main supply lines to the entire south east sector of the frontline. That’s going to make it extremely hard to supply and reinforce that sector in the coming week or two.


Subtitles of the vid now in the thread:

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Very interesting. Please provide link to discussion etc.

I am hopeless at reading maps.

Does it make it more difficult to attack Donetsk or more difficult to defend Donetsk?

Russians blowing damn implies to me they think they may need floods as an obstacle to an attack on Donetsk?

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It could make it harder for Ukraine to defend the sectors of the front that get the supply roads cut. Watch this space type of thing to see if the roads get cut and if the Russians are capable of taking advantage of that window.

From the 36 minute mark

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Stormshadow. 450 taken out.


“The first group of about 400 Ukrainian soldiers has begun training in Germany on US M1 Abrams tanks, nytimes, citing Pentagon spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Garron Garn. Another 200 Ukrainian soldiers have begun training to refuel and maintain the tanks.”

“Too bad, so sad…”

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Yes, an obstacle works both ways. If uncoordinated, what one commander does upstream might wreck the plan of a commander downstream.
UA might be able to take advantage of this to isolate a sector and execute an offensive in that direction and using the flooded area as flank protection


Thanks. I only just got back and watched the video via @Benny40 from 36’. Was confused about the reference to Russians blocking supplies and reinforcements for the front by a flood West of the front. The video clarifies that the concern is about a possible Russian offensive, which had not occurred to me as am not expecting a Russian offensive, so map looked puzzling.

Even more puzzling if they have just protected the East flank of an expected Ukrainian offensive southwards in order to facilitate an implausible Russian offensive Westwards.

I will probably never be able to read maps properly. But I am almost expecting that level of uncoordination in Russian moves.

Speculation among Russian milbloggers about sabotage in the Russian command does not strike me as particularly paranoid.

Russia hasn’t stopped attacking in that area. They are still losing dozens of armoured vehicles a week trying the same dumb plan time and time again. The problem with Ukraine losing their supply lines is it potentially weakens these fortifications that are under constant pressure.

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Today’s Katz:

Putin Isn’t Forever | Will Mr. President’s Luck Run Out (English subtitles)

Today, we’ll ask an unexpected question: Is there any chance Putin loses? Can his system start cracking? Is Prigozhin’s figure a sign that the regime is faltering?

Discusses the mirage of Putin regime’s permanance that still grips Russians.

Reminds viewers how almost everyone assumed Ukraine would be rapidly defeated when the invasion started and only realised Ukraine might never be defeated after the Ukrainian offensives last September.

Putin has been in power so long and survived so many crises and failures that people forget how much the world has changed since 1999 and how much the regime, like its army, has decayed.

eg Only 1% of Russians used the internet in 1999.

There’s a reason I’m talking about the technological advances of humankind.

It’s the simplest way to measure the scale of an era.

The world has changed so much that today’s people would have a hard time just going about their daily lives in ‘99.

So much has happened and changed that almost nothing in our way of life reminds us of ‘99, except one thing. Vladimir Putin is still in power.

What if we have more faith in Vladimir Putin than he has in himself? What if our faith is baseless?

I don’t mean to say that Prigozhin will seize power tomorrow or that he’s important in his own right.

No, Prigozhin is just a symptom. In any other situation and in any other country, it would be taken very seriously because for the government, it’s a lethal symptom

But we’ve convinced ourselves over the years that Putin can’t lose.

We’re so sure of Putin’s invincibility that all public discussion boils down to what he’s up to and what cunning plan he’s implementing by having his own generals and officials humiliated.

We wonder what Putin is trying to achieve by having a hideous armed version of Navalny with a similar political agenda jump into the public eye while the real Navalny is in jail.

But who decided he’s trying to achieve anything?

Who told us he’s in control? Sure, it’s very easy to ridicule those who predict that Putin will stand trial next week.

But the other extreme view is far more widespread, and yet, almost nobody notices it.

It’s the idea that Putin is detached from reality to the point where political, economic, and perhaps even physical laws no longer apply to him.

That he can roll the dice as much as he wants to and get into as many hopeless situations as he wants to because time, luck, and God will bail him out.

Maybe they will. Maybe in a few months, we’ll stop seeing mentions of Prigozhin.

Maybe, after a two-year-long bloodbath, the 2024 presidential election will be a breeze.

Maybe none of the risks that Putin is amassing will come true and the system will bounce back.

All this is possible. But it’s not certain, and we shouldn’t treat it as such. And not because it sounds sad.

But because if we’re convinced that Putin can’t lose, we’ll miss the moment when he actually starts losing.

See you tomorrow!

I think he’s accurately describing a source of paralysis in Russian public opinion, even if speculation that Prigozhin will become a fake opposition candidate on behalf of Putin turns out to be correct.

There’s no excuse for not noticing the decay of the regime for those living in it.

I find the utter determination of observers outside Russia to retain assumptions about the war ending with a defeated regime still in power just as hard to understand.

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I had it backwards I suppose. Didn’t see the vid before commenting.

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I still have it upside down and will not attempt to figure it out. :wink:

Understood. I have no opinion because I am hopeless at reading maps.

But if I was going to try and form an opinion I would want detailed hydrographic data, including amount of water in the damn, previous floods, expected rainfall etc as well as an understanding of the supply lines and orders of battle etc.

I would not attempt it from viewing a topographic map. Flood could just be a brief nuisance on the highways.

I assume that information is readily available online as well as to Ukrainian METOC staff.

But the only vague reference to using such data that I have seen is from a Russian milblogger who says he is not expecting much impact:

Finally I got to the cards with heights to understand where the water from the Karlovsk reservoir could (!) Could (!).

I emphasize: maybe!Because there is not necessary water for this.

Karlovka, Galitsynovskoye and the desired 1st, most likely, in some places to flood.Maybe Kurakhovo will flood a little.

But this will definitely not do critical damage to the enemy.

287.2K Viewsboris Rozhin,
May 27 at 00:08

After looking in more detail, you are right, I don’t expect significant issues from the breaking and the flooding downstream; It’s not a huge reservoir and the water could be absorbed by the dam in Kurakhove. And even if this later dam could not cope, the terrain below could absorb it. The bridge over the dam is not that big and easily overbridged with Bailey or Acrow (Maybe), or other system in a matter of a day. No other LoC are affected by the potential flooding unless the RUf blow up more bridges.

I have posted some threads from mr Perpetua but this one seems a bit washy - couldn’t sit through it, lol