Russia invades Ukraine - 4 - from 14 March 2023



20 Iranian drones just shot down in Kyiv. Another wave currently on the way.


Grossi of IAEA is scheduled to brief the UNSC on Tuesday on the state of play in negotiations on the safety of the ZNPP.
While there is some speculation of a compromise, both sides are publicly blaming the other. Reporting from Ukraine intelligence sources indicate that a cease fire and cessation of hostilities between the troops around the plant would suit the Russians , as they would have time to regroup and block a counter offensive towards the Sea of Azov.
Whatever the state of play and positions behind the scenes, progress could depend on their evaluation of the prospects of a radiation leak from the plant (in which other UN members would also be invested)

This attack highlights once more the main difference between the 2 sides. UA concnetrates exclusively on military targets, while RU is indiscriminate in their choice of targets.

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Been waiting for this counter offensive for so long, could it really be in the next few days? Would they really be telegraphing it?

“Today Russia and Ukraine have exchanged conditions for peace.

In short, Russia has asked Ukraine to surrender, Ukraine refused and asked Russia to withdraw.

Russia has lost its standing and power, but it will take time for Russia to accept this 1/
Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Galuzin listed the following:
0. Ukraine should stop fighting

  1. Commit not to join the EU

  2. Commit not to join NATO

  3. The West should stop supporting Ukraine and supplying weapons

  4. Ukraine should accept new territorial "realities"2/

  5. Russian should be made a state language

  6. Ukraine should allow Russian(controlled) church.

Zelensky advisor Mykhaylo Podolyak has responded with the following:

  1. Russia withdraws troops from Ukraine
  2. Russia recognizes sovereignty of all post-Soviet countries. 3/
  3. Russia extradites war criminals and those started the war
  4. Russia creates a demilitarized zone
  5. Russia reduces the number of long-range missiles.
  6. Russia pay reparations for the damages.
  7. International community convenes&discusses how to control Russian nukes. 4X”

This is one to watch closely.

“According to preliminary information, subject to further confirmation, #Lukashenko was urgently transported to Moscow’s Central Clinical Hospital after his closed-door meeting with #Putin. Currently, he remains under medical care there. Leading specialists have been mobilized to address his critical condition. Blood purification procedures have been conducted, and Lukashenko’s condition has been deemed non-transportable. The orchestrated efforts to save the Belarusian dictator aimed to dispel speculations regarding Kremlin’s alleged involvement in his poisoning.
Irrespective of whether he recovers or not, doctors caution about the possibility of relapses. As representatives of the Belarus Democratic Forum of the Republic of Belarus, we earnestly urge Western leaders to convene a strategic session in the coming days to discuss the “Elections” initiative and other measures that should be undertaken in order to secure the transitional period. We firmly assert that the existing technologies are adequate for conducting fair and transparent elections in Belarus in accordance with the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, without direct interference from the Kremlin. By doing so, we will establish a legitimate institution in the eyes of all Belarusians and the global community at large. Holding elections during such a critical juncture will not only help restore law and order in the future Belarus but also lay the groundwork for stabilizing the situation on the borders of the European Union and the world.”


It’s probably happening on a Tuesday.

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29 May is Whit/Pentecost Monday holiday in Europe, Memorial Day in USA, so unlikely this coming Monday.

Best time to attack while everyone’s on holiday.


Don’t think so.
More to make the Russians stay in heightened stste of alert


I read a good thread about the impact of FPV drone attacks by Ukraine on trucks and Scoobie Doo vans. Basically, Russia is losing dozens of logistics vehicles each week from racing drones with RPGs duct taped on.

This has a moderate impact on the local front. Troops have to walk instead of get a ride. Ammunition, food and medical shipments are delayed. It might take a few weeks to pull a replacement vehicle in to regain logistics.

But the flow on effects is where the value is at. For every truck that gets stripped from reserve units, that’s another 20 troops that can’t be relocated at speed to counter a Ukrainian offensive. It cripples Russian mobility, making it harder and slower for them to respond to Ukrainian actions. If Russia loses 20% of their trucks through front line attrition, that’s a big reduction in the mass of troops Ukraine will have to deal with. Doesn’t matter if Russia has 5000 troops 40km away, if they can’t get to the fight they are useless.


Ukraine claims to have shot down 52 Shahed drones out of 54 launched.


Are there any non combat helicopters used to transport troops, including repatriation of the wounded?

Azovstal was resupplied by helicopters who flew suicidal missions over Russian lines to get medical supplies in and get wounded troops out.

By and large the frontline is now supported almost exclusively by ground vehicles. The shoulder fired anti air missiles and larger SAM systems are too potent to risk battlefield rescue flights.

I can’t say what the Ukrainians are doing further back, there may be some helicopter evacuations from 15km from the front back to a high end hospital. Everything I’ve heard says they are largely focused on ground based transport to hospitals 50-100km behind the lines.

Thanks. I was thinking more of Russian troops replenishments having to move over longer distances than the Ukraine army and with depleted ground vehicles.
There have been reports of Russian retreats leaving the injured behind, which would affect morale I imagine.

… Russian translation of the videos should ensure heightened state of panic…

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Ok. On the Russian side, we don’t get much visibility on what is happening in the occupied areas. They have a larger helicopter fleet than Ukraine, but haven’t shown much focus on caring for their own wounded.

Russia is never as bad or as good as they seem. They probably have some form of airlift being used, depending on the sector. There’s heaps of anecdotal stories of Russians leaving troops to die in the field, or refusing to evacuate them from their positions. Some of this will be Ukranian info warfare, some will be localised issues, some will be army-wide culture.

It is leading to a much higher dead to wounded ratio, with maybe 2:5 dying instead of the 1:5 to 1:7 ratio we’ve become used to in modern western style warfare. We don’t know the exact numbers, but good chance they are horrific compared to what we experienced in Australia’s recent deployments.

TLDR - dunno, but I reckon it’s pretty bad



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