What’s the weaponised food thing?
I know of the famine from WW2 that was blamed on Churchill, when a cyclone wiped out the crops and Japan held the areas that would normally cover that shortage.
Was the US thing intertwined with the response to Indian nuclear testing?
All those launches from the Caspian Sea, where the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea designates it as a Sea of Peace .
However it seems that Article 3 of the Convention applies between the parties themselves, most of which are in any event economically dependent on Russia( which controls the pipeline running through it).
Member States include Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
Apparently missiles fired from there can reach most cities in Ukraine, extending to Lviv and Odessa.
US food aid to India was at one time contingent on its support for the US in Vietnam.
Later, food aid wheat supplied was heavily contaminated with some weed that adversely affected Indian agriculture.
ADD
At the height of the Cold War and the domino theory of Vietnam War, the likes of Thailand and other South East Asian countries were massive beneficiaries of US academic scholarships , less so Indians
Indeed… Remains to be seen. It’s clear that the counteroffensive is in its early stages at the moment with probing and feinting. We will see a big battle at some point which will likely be decisive one way or the other.
Interesting read. I agree with Barry, a lot of what is in the article seems quite biased but certainly good to see things from that perspective.
The number of storm shadow missiles claimed to have been shot down is based on RU numbers, which is laughable when compared to their other claims that are out there. Would mean over 20 launched already, before the offensive even starts, highly unlikely given the cost of 2m pounds each.
The comments about “crossing russian red lines” sounds like the typical RU propaganda to generate concerns about escalation amongst the uneducated.
The Perun video on Stormshadow went into the numbers. They are being launched from a small number of modified SU-24s.
The UK only have 700-1000 of these missiles, France 400-500. They are due to be replaced in 2030, which will leave an awkward hole in the inventory if donations are large. If Ukraine receives 100 missiles, it probably doesn’t make a huge impact. If they get 300-500, it has a strategic impact. There is no indication of how many are to be delivered, France is still deciding if to send any at all.
If Ukraine’s SU-24s get shot down or break down, then the missiles have no launch platform. They are the rate limiting step for these launches, only able to launch a handful a day at most.
Edit - from the rate of strikes it looks like Ukraine started with a single modified SU-24, but may have grown that to 2 or 3 jets in the past few days.
Interesting comments in thread:
Very interesting that these strikes are seemingöy coming from the sea, this mean that missiles probably looped around to avoid airdefense.
Stormy stormy I guess. Storm Shadows has been designed to fly at very low altitude. (few meters from the surface) On sea it’s pretty ideal. They just fly up at the very end so the targeting system can identify the target easier.
Russian propaganda setting up the pretexts to occupy Belarus for Belarus’ own protection?
Solovyov is worried (or maybe he really wants it) that Russian SRGs can infiltrate the territory of Belarus
https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1662831543520223232?s=20
Slant obvious and explicit:
Determined to weaken Russia through a proxy counteroffensive, on May 11, 2023, the UK threw caution to the wind and announced that it would gift Ukraine 250+ km range of Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles.
But it is serious enemy analysis, well worth reading. As recent RUSI report mentions, Russian Air Force and air defences are still effective and have not been degraded to anywhere near the extent of ground forces.
A less slanted version would not say “wily Russian military leadership” and “greatly” reduced, but the belated reduction in idiocy did have the effect described, which it is worth understanding.
We cannot expect all serious enemy analysis to have the same focus on enemy failures as Girkin/Strelkov.
I agree that the major Ukrainian offensive being prepared is more likely to be clearly successful or clearly unsuccessful than inconclusive. It isn’t like the continuous more localised smaller attacks and counter attacks on both sides during Winter.
But the term “decisive one way or the other”, like @Benny40 “Ukraine has only one shot at this” has misleading connotations.
The war might be ended by one offensive eg if the Russian armed forces and regime suddenly collapses after a breakthrough. But that is not to be expected. Multiple offensives at least into next year are more likely.
Any given particular offensive may clearly fail eg if fortified entrenchments and the reserves available are stronger than expected so the assault forces suffer heavy losses without breaking through. That would be a setback and could encourage the forces that will push for a “frozen conflict” like General Mark Milley, chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, but that need not result in them being successful at forcing such an outcome.
As some comments from Ukrainian officials have mentioned, too much emphasis is being placed on raising expectations about the coming offensive. Keeping the enemy in a prolonged state of heightened “alertness” bordering on panic is fine. Raising expectations that this is the be all and end all among friends of Ukraine is not.
Milley’s term expires in the Fall this year.
Biden has nominated Charles Q Brown as his successor.
Thanks. With very quick look around I haven’t found much that sheds light on any implications for Ukraine policy. But certainly looks better than Milley and if the West ever does get serious about collective defence, air power would be central. “Close the Sky” is what Ukraine asked for at the start and should have got then.
Also, from unpaywalled NYT
During nationwide protests after George Floyd, an African American man, was beaten to death by Minneapolis police, General Brown electrified the rank and file in the military with an extraordinary video. It was June 2020, and Mr. Trump wanted to invoke the Insurrection Act to use the active-duty troops to target protesters upset about the killing. General Brown was just days away from his confirmation vote in a Republican-led Senate to be Air Force chief of staff.
“I’m thinking about how full I am with emotion not just for George Floyd, but the many African Americans that have suffered the same fate as George Floyd,” he said in the video, an unusually public statement by a high-ranking military leader about a sensitive and politically charged issue.
“I’m thinking about protests in my country ’tis of thee, sweet land of liberty, the equality expressed in our Declaration of Independence and the Constitution that I have sworn my adult life to support and defend. I’m thinking about a history of racial issues and my own experiences that didn’t always sing of liberty and equality.”
The video was a bold move for a general recently promoted by Mr. Trump. But it also cemented General Brown as the heir apparent to General Milley.
By one shot at this, I mean they’ve got a fixed amount of offensive units trained and equiped for this year. If they burn that all banging their heads against a wall, then they will need to beg for more gear and then train up thousands of extra conscripts.
European militaries are going to struggle to pull together an equivalent supply of quality armour in the short term. They’ll give more, but it will be a tough ask to get the same again.
So for 2023, Ukraine has one bucket of resources. They can spend that in one go, or drip feed it over multiple assaults, but it’s not going to expand in a relevant timeframe.
Reuters report unpaywalled Dismissing Russian criticism, U.S. Senator Graham praises Ukrainian resistance
Trump did a top job on the character assassination of Alexander Vindman and pushed Fiona Hill out.
The Ukrainian Air Force says 9 Russian Tu-95MS bombers launched up to 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, of which 37 were shot down, and ~35 Shahed/ Geran-2 drones, of which 29 were shot down. An ISR UAV was also shot down.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1663061256310337536?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
That’s a lot of missiles to expend for minimal results.
Of course, Ukraine is also expending a lot of AD to neutralize these. Wondering if Russia is just trying to run them out of AD missiles prior to any counter attack?
