Most of the pain Russia is causing is lobbing inaccurate S300 missiles in the general direction of Ukrainian cities.
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What Putin Dreads More: Losing Crimea or Ending War (English subtitles)
This war has become a time of awakening to reality. Yet, many still believe there are certain red lines and sacred cows. Let’s look today at the way things really stand.
Repeats frequent theme that Putin needs the war to remain in power and regime depends on population remaining apathetically outside politics attending to their own lives and only wanting to be left alone.
But seems to have completely missed the stuff mentioned above from State TV imploding with incandescent rage about Ukrainian attacks within Russian borders. Says the regime is treating it as all completely normal and so are the people being evacuated from border regions.
Today’s Katz makes no sense at all to me.
Aussie M113 had an eventful day in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1665437301428690944?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
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Wagner took a POW. An officer from the Russian army, after the army shot at Wagner mercenaries. Things are going well.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1665469932866289664?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
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Tank battle near village of Novodarivka during armored assault in southern Zaporizhzhia]region with 2-3 companies.
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Sure he was…
I’m taking this as a probing action, not a full offensive. But the Russian panic is real.
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The ZNPP is hostage to both sides who are not currently prepared to have a ceasefire around the site.
From the Ukraine side there is a view that a ceasefire would enable Russia to regroup.
The IAEA recently briefed the UNSC on the potential for catastrophe in the event of radiation leaks. It was noted that war conducted in the vicinity of a nuclear plant (the largest in Europe) was unique.
Grossi put forward 5 principles, none of which were actually debated. UA and Russia traded insults and blame, with most others (including Switzerland) calling for respect for UA territorial integrity and for Russia to leave.
Grossi’s 5 principles, recorded on the UNSC meetings site (chaired by Switzerland ,which was not a meeting calling for a vote )
- no attack from or against the ZNPP
- no use of the plant for storage nor as a base for heavy equipment or military personnel.
- no placement of offsite power at risk
- protection of essential structures, systems and components from attack or sabotage
- no action which endangers these principles
Russia claiming to have destroyed 250 Ukrainian infantry, 16 tanks, 3 IFVs and 21 AFVs.
I’m sure that Ukraine had some losses, but this is almost certainly another case of Russia inflating their stats.
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From the complete junk footage that Russia filmed through an 1990s era webcam covered in Vaseline, it looks like Ukraine probed with about 10 vehicles. 1 destroyed, 1 damaged.
https://twitter.com/j_jhelin/status/1665510652318822402?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
These are the sorts of probing actions we should expect to see in the lead up to a real offensive. Test how brittle the Russian positions are. Test how long reinforcements take to arrive. Test the enemy artillery support and try to eliminate them with counter battery fires. Make the enemy unsure if each assault is just a probe or a major engagement, so that they make poor decisions in response.
We will see this stuff fairly often over the coming weeks. I suggest avoiding hype until momentum is undeniable.
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Looks like sanctions are biting hard, back to 640x480 VGA level graphics 
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Benny has learned from the Lid On thread.
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Very close date to D Day in 1944, 6 June. No doubt coincidental but interesting, I’m sure both actions were aiming for May but end up pushing out to June by the time planning, logistics, force movement and so on all are complete.
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Original thread link has been updated to thread that includes full video of interrogation of the Lt Col with English subtitles.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1665472757696528386
Updated thread also has report of official statement from Prigohzin:
plus a statement from Strelkov/Gikin demanding arrest and trial by military court of Prigozhin but expecting that “no one” ie Russian military leadership will do this.
As well as the natural enthusiasm for enemy infighting the commentary overwhelmingly takes same position as Strelkov against Wagner, claiming it is intolerable for soldiers (specifically in this case hated mercenaries) to arrest senior officers.
I am more sympathetic to the arrest of Lt Cols, drunk or otherwise, who deliberately fire on friendly forces, whether out of “personal animosity” or on orders to destroy them in preparation for future conflict.
Seems clear that Prigozhin and MoD are genuinely hostile to each other and preparing to fight.
Likewise Strelkov and MoD but working for replacement of leadership rather than open combat.
Unclear to me whether Putin and his circle already seen as irrelevant or whether they are both aiming at overthrow, or either or both competing for his support in replacing MoD leadership.
Also unclear “what FSB doing”. But I assume Strelkov has close connections with FSB.
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Does Wagner continue to maintain support for Putin, with the Kremlin bureaucracy as its target in an internal power struggle for Putin’s ear?
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@ArthurD Regarding Responsible AI, you could probably start here.
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Thanks! Looks like EXACTLY the most relevant starting point for actual military AI development.
From dates plus quick glance I assume there is nothing addressing the “Natural Selection” issues that were only widely highlighted in May.
I will be interested in any early news of material circulated to military AI developers as a direct response.
But it definately has stuff relevant to my specific interest in verifiable accountability logging, which is the only aspect I can think of directly relevant to Ukraine.
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Codes have been discussed bilaterally between the US and EU, also at the G7
The EU is a jump ahead on legislation, but IDK the extent to which it would cover defence and wars
Where the EU is going
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