Also from Tendar delightful 9 seconds video of hacked Crimea TV showing Ukrainian soldiers warning supporters to keep quiet about their movements through Crimea:
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1665450375288180738
About as subtle a way of inducing panic as I can imagine.
love it.
Thanks. Looks very relevant. Downloading links now, including most relevant part found so far:
A google search of eu AI would provide around a dozen relevant sites.
Seems unclear. Explicit target is MoD. Passing references to retiring âGrandpaâ which means Putin. Certainly posturing as independent of Putin.
Conflicting views:
I donât understand item 2 as I donât see how they could be holding elections in March next year.
On the other hand:
Would need to at least speak Russian to have a clear picture and I doubt that the experts with full access to intercepts etc have a clear picture yet as I doubt both their expertize and the actual existance of a clear picture visible to any of the participants.
Things are inherently murky in a situation like this.
Should have invested in Incitec-Pivot, you may have got more bang for your buck.
Perhaps âlarge-scale offensive in 5 sectors of the front in Yuzhno-Donetsk directionâ refers to Pivdennodonbaska 1 coal mine aka Yuzhnodonskaya 1 Coal Mine south-west of Donetsk.
Presumably Russian forces have moved in that direction, in the opposite direction from whatever might be happening or about to happen in the area of Semyhiria (Russian âSemigoryeâ), where Wagner and MoD forces are fighting each other as Wagner withdraws south-east from Bakhmut.
General Mark Hertling says:
The upcoming Ukraine operation will be challenging & tough. UAF will be on a large offensive w/ new equipment going against RU defensive positions that have been reinforced for 6 months.
Heâs reliably wrong, eg on Abrams.
I doubt that they will be âgoing against RU defensive positions that have been reinforced for 6 monthsâ.
More likely to go around.
Among many possibilities they might for example head for Taganarog bypassing Donetsk on both sides (from Bakhmut and from whatever just did a feint in the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction turning around to head East of Mariupol)âŚ
Anywhere that they arenât expected.
I didnât see any reference to Abrams in the thread - what do you think he is wrong about?
With regard to going around, are you really thinking that this is a realistic option?
Thatâs an extremely long way and would take an enormous force, very extensive logistics required and high risk of getting cut off and isolated/trapped. Not any chance at all IMO.
I canât see any way they can avoid breaching the RU defensive lines to get through to the Sea of Azov and cut off the land bridge to Crimea. Itâs going to be hard to do but if they can deplete the defence enough then the trenches and dragons teeth will just be a speed bump. Itâs the only way they can cut through and maintain resupply lines.
Hertling famously said the USA wouldnât/couldnât provide Abrams tanks because it was too hard and Ukraine didnât have the logistics in place or the qualified personnel to operate them.
Obviously they are now on the way so he looks a bit silly. Although you could argue that he was correct that it was too hard in the short term, just not in the long term.
Putin is referred to as âBunker Grandpaâ
Ukraine will operate a few hundred Abrams in maybe 3 years time. The challenge to stand that capability up are very real. 31 isnât an effective combat force. It is a proof of concept, a test bed to learn on.
Edit - I donât think that it is a coincidence that 31 promised tanks + 59 Australian tanks = a nice round number of 90. Three units of 30⌠call me a conspiracy theoristâŚ
Update from Pro-Russian Wargonzo: AFU is holding the outskirts of Novodonetske. Ukrainian forces were able to penetrate the frontline about 2KM. Battles continue
https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1665644903727083522?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
Stay skeptical until the evidence is undeniable.
Yet to see any western tanks or IFVs. Only MRAPs left over from Afghanistan.
A series of feints, getting Russia to scramble from one location to another.
It can only mean the real attack is just around the corner.
