https://twitter.com/yugopnik/status/1666250009132539906?s=46&t=VIFL5UYjxd376tbe4uqp6A
The other point of interest is that if the US is correct (and I’m wary that they’d be publicly documenting Ukraine’s intention ) and the main offensive is trying to break through to Melitopol to trap the Russian forces in the south, then the flooding of the offensives right flank may actually suit the Ukrainians. If Russian forces are mired in floodplains then the spearhead can potentially focus more on counteroffensives from the left side.
But it’s curious that other than seemingly fake Russian references to Leopard 2 encounters, there’s no real sense of Leopard involvement as yet. Ukr are doing a good job of masking their whereabouts.
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US administration says Ukraine advanced 5-10km. This is with no confirmed use of any of the high end tanks or IFVs. What we’ve probably seen is hints of what a B+ Ukrainian force can manage, which indicates the fragility of the Russian line.
I suspect this is an overly successful probing action. Lots more to play out.
Regarding the loss of the dam, this will free up forces defending that bank. Russia will have lost a lot of ammunition and equipment from the flooding, but whatever they’ve salvaged will be available to send east to block Ukrainian action.
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Aggressive probes to find where they are weak, or to throw them off the scent of where the real point of attack will be.
I must admit, I find it hard to believe that Ukraine can keep large movements of armour, artillery, material and men secret from the Russians.
Of course, the Ukrainians will be using deception tactics, but Russia has a very sophisticated spy satellite system. And I’m sure the contact regions still have Russian sympathizers.
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Assuming they aren’t currently pinned on flooded ground, it’ll only free them up relatively briefly. A Ukrainian breakout eastwards from Kherson as the waters subside, with Russian forces now involved to the north and east, would set a cat amongst the Russian pigeons.
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Potential to happen in 2 weeks when the water subsides.
By the same token, I’ve no doubt that Ukr is getting fed the best info that the US/UK can provide. They have a vested interest that will only increase if/when equipment such as Abrams are deployed to front lines. They should have a pretty good picture of Russian reserve locations and the logistics lines of how/when they can respond to the main contact point.
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How would the tanks cope on land that has been flooded? There were suggestions that UA was waiting for the soil to dry out for the counter offensive.
Qatar has sold back 15 Gepard AA tanks to Germany, after purchasing them for the World Cup security. Purchased for 31 million USD, sold back for 64 million USD. Will be sent on to Ukraine. Delivery should be fairly quick as these were in active service.
Similar news is a 120 million USD refurb and purchase deal for Gepards from Jordan. Unclear how many units, but gut feel from the price is 30-60. These were in storage and I believe are older model.
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They basically wouldn’t. But I’m not sure the intention would be to use them in that area anyway.
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Dam failure may actually dry out the area Ukraine intends to assault. The record high water levels was flowing down irrigation canals and saturating the farmlands. Now that the dam is receding, flooded paddocks should drain and the ground firm up.
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Keep in mind also that the main flooding is either side of the river and especially in Kherson itself at the river delta into the sea. It’s not currently clear just how far it’s spread eastwards , but it seems likely that the country southeast of Kherson towards Crimea will remain traversable. If Russia withdraws manpower and Ukr can establish river crossings in Kherson oblast they may be able to break out along the coast.
But the fog of war is thick.
I suppose drainage could depend on the soil type and topography.
Pray for sunshine and wind.
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Summer is coming.
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I feel like the theory is to have chaotic borders where one’s influence can be extended. There is no real aim for peace, so an endgame is not needed. Perpetual war allows a galvanisation at home against perpetual foes.
Good analysis by the Austrian army.
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That guy is awesome, but he needs to say
“Get to the chopper” for us
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Link broken. I looked for that picture at Yugopnik but could not find it since beginning of April. He looks interesting.
Well he’s now got chaotic borders!
Agree that he hopes for perpetual war to enable the kind of martial law fascist regime that he needs to survive. The system he came to power in that had multi-party elections and some room for expressing opposition is no longer capable of sustaining kleptocracy since Maidan in Ukraine.
But I think he had in mind a perpetual war against Ukrainian guerilla resistance to an occupation regime and has no theory of victory against what he is actually facing - just a realistic appraisal that he won’t survive admitting defeat:
And always keep a-hold of Nurse
For fear of finding something worse.